BREXIT: Planning for No Deal.

Grandad1943 I think you meant that for me.

If we don't need more lorries why do we need more ferries to bring them in?

Nonnie to bring goods into other ports to relieve congestion at Dover

humptydumpty, would that it will be as simple as your above post @ 12:53 today.

A very high percentage of cross-channel truck traffic operates on Just in Time (JIT) delivery/collection schedules. If those trucks depart or arrive into non-scheduled ports those JIT services will be heavily disrupted. In that, more trucks will be required plus drivers for those extra trucks if supply to factories, Supermarkets and other retail outlets are to be maintained with any reasonable regularity.

However the RHA and FTA are as yet to comment on the latest government announcements due to the holiday season I would think, but when those bodies do comment good notice should be taken, I believe.

The RHA chairman has been "spot on" with his statements throughout this growing crisis, while the predictions the government has made in regard to transport has been wrong at every turn.

How does the government think extra ferries will help? They will either add to the queues at Dover or be sent to other ports that don't have facilities to cope with increased traffic. I wonder if any of them have ever joined a queue of lorries trying to cross into Switzerland? Endless paperwork and expense.

For forum members who wish to get a full picture of what a "no deal" Brexit crisis would mean for the Road Transport Industrty, here is a report from the Guardian. Alan Burnet the Chairman of the Road Haulage Association has previously stated in very similar terms to the Guardian report what a no deal scenario would mean.

Guardian report begins here:-
It is difficult to see how ports could continue functioning as before even if the government’s no-deal plans swing seamlessly into place in March. Authorities in France have said even a two-minute delay in Calais would lead to 16-mile queues in both countries. The Road Haulage Association (RHA) recently said the government was “in denial” over no-deal preparations.

As it stands, hauliers entering the country will be required to submit a 40-section declaration form per consignment. “The form takes 10 minutes to fill out. If you take a large retailer who has 8,000 consignments [in one lorry], that would take 170 people eight hours to process one trailer,” said Richard Burnett, the RHA’s chief executive.

Even if the UK decides not to impose checks, they will be mandatory in the other direction. Regional authorities in Hauts-de-France, which includes France’s largest passenger port, its biggest fishing port and the country’s third biggest cargo port, and Kent county council have advanced plans to try to mitigate the catastrophic impact that would have on both countries’ economies.

Xavier Bertrand, the president of regional council of Hauts-de-France, said temporary border inspection posts for food controls would be in place for April and recruitment had begun for the first batch of 250 customs officials.

In Dover there is no room for border inspection posts. Kent county council has warned of the chaos that could ensue, affecting the ability of schools, hospitals, morgues and waste collectors to function normally. Paul Carter, the Conservative leader of the council, has said no-deal could cause gridlock at Dover and spread chaos around the country at a cost of almost £1.75bn a week to the economy.

The council has contingency plans in place, including facilities at Manston airport to act as a holding pen for 5,000 to 6,000 lorries. However, it says a national plan is needed to ensure lorries stay in depots further north until they are called to join the queue at the airport for Dover.
Guardian report ends here:

Link to full article :
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/30/food-prices-to-finance-what-a-no-deal-brexit-could-mean-for-britain?CMP=share_btn_link

Time for everyone to wake up I feel.

humpty yes, but why do we need more 'goods' than currently?

I know people have tried to explain that we need more ferries to bring in more lorries to bring in more goods but why do we suddenly need more goods if we leave the EU? Are the lorries going to come in with part loads?

I can understand needing a lot more customs officers but who is going to consume all these extra 'goods'

Just scare mongering again, no more lorries why would there be.

Thanks Nicenanny I think you may be the first to have understood my question. Must be me, seem to be being misunderstood all over the place!

All I can see is yet more money being squandered without good reason. At some point we will find out just how much this whole debacle has cost us all in addition to all the extra 2000+ civil servants we are having to pay for.

Bonnie, there would be a need for more trucks as those that are being delayed at the ports would not be able to complete all of their scheduled journeys.

By example to the above, a vehicle delayed through the ports may have six or seven JIT deliveries on board and then be scheduled to make the same number of collections before returning to a channel port.

In the above, the vehicle has to make the scheduled JIT deliveries even if those drops are severely delayed. In the meantime, a second vehicle would be required to make the collections to get that section of overall round journey at least begin on time.

Problem with the above, there is not an infinite supply of heavy trucks standing idle at this point in time, and Britain is short of now sixty thousand truck driver to operate any trucks that may be become available.

Grandad thank for that (its Nonnie by the way). So not only are we hiring extra ferries but extra lorries as well to carry half loads. So goods will be more expensive to cover the extra as well as our taxes paying for all the other Brexit stuff. Did anyone actually vote for this?

That's basically correct Nonnie. We will have two vehicles do the work that one carries out at present. Even then those two vehicles will be far less efficient in terms of time for any round trip schedule at double the cost.

Did I just read that one of the ferry companies given a contract by the government don't actually, as yet, have any ferries?

Yes you did Labaik. It is only a shell company with no ferries, no infrastructure and I think I heard that it only has £66 capital. You couldn't make it up!

Discussing this with DH this morning and we wondered why the government always gets the blame for everything when, presumably, it was a civil servant who made the decision. I used to negotiate contracts which my Director signed. She didn't micro manage me, she trusted me to do my job and I would expect that the civil servants should have more experience of contracts than the Minister who signs them off.

I have been reading that Hammond is refusing to release money agreed by cabinet in a bid to try to paralyse parliament. 2 government departments complaining including Brokenshire who is remainer.

we wondered why the government always gets the blame for everything when, presumably, it was a civil servant who made the decision.

Because a government minister is responsible for all decisions made by their department, that's why.

To think that people were worried about rule by 'unelected bereaucrats' in the EU yet seem quite cool about unelected UK civil servants making decisions over the head of their Minister...

Isn't the ferry company something to do with the pro Brexit Bamford family?

I think I've grasped this now. DT, who doesn't like TM's deal, is allegedly holding out an imaginary carrot of a massive, exclusive US/UK deal which - if you read all the way to the bottom - is not practical or possible unless it is on his terms only. Oh, and by the way, he still wants his state visit.

All announced at arm's length so it can be denied in an irate Tweet when an Ambassador falls out of favour.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46720323

Maizie I think you misunderstood. Surely it would be incredible if Ministers made decisions without the professionals in the civil service making recommendations. These people are highly paid in order to advise whoever is in government at the time. Of course they would have greater expertise in their specialist area than the Minister who has probably only been in post a short while.

I doubt any intelligent person actually believes that TM has done all the negotiations with the EU. No, it will have been the civil servants who would have been the same people whoever was in government. The rest is just politics.

The CEO of a company does not micro manage everything the company does, it is the same with governments. Very often the CEO has to resign after some huge blunder as does the PM. In the same way the underling who made the mistake is often left in post in both cases.

I can't believe there will be no deal. If May loses the vote they could well kick the can of Brexit down the road, as she will not want a GE or give in to a second Ref.. If you keep pushing Brexit away, the public will lose interest and we can return to sanity. This ismy hope.

As from the start of 2019, yes coincidentally just as the Brexit deadline looms, all EU member states will have to apply the Anti Tax Avoidance Directive (ATAD). It’s an EU law designed to tackle businesses shirking their tax-paying responsibilities.

The likes of Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg and a host of wealthy Brexit donors are unlikely to warm to ATAD. It fact, it might be one of reasons why some Brexiteers are hell-bent on pushing for the hardest Brexit possible.

More than 200 MPs from various parties have signed a letter urging the government to take the prospect of a no-deal Brexit off the table.

The politicians are from the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Plaid Cymru parties and the letter was written by Meriden MP Caroline Spelman and Birmingham Erdington MP Jack Dromey.

The group is concerned about the effect of a no-deal Brexit on the manufacturing industry.

news.sky.com/story/more-than-200-mps-want-pm-to-rule-out-no-deal-brexit-11600823

In that case, they should climb down off their high horses and vote for the deal that is being offered.

I would like to think we could trust our MPs to do what they believe to be right and act in the best interests of our country.

The "we must deliver brexit " line has been spun for two and a half years and it has been shown that the unicorn promises of the leave liars are undeliverable. TM's red lines are incompatible.

I hope they will revoke Article 50 and spend no more of our time and money on this chaotic farce. We will be better off remaining in the EU.

Some MP’s are hoping for a general election. Some are hoping for a second referendum. No deal with the EU seems to be gaining traction. It will be interesting to see if a no deal does get taken of the table. Personally, I hope it doesn’t. We would have little leverage without it.

lemon are you serious? Do you really think we would be better off with that deal? Do you believe we should hang Northern Ireland out to dry? I didn't think anyone other than TM believed it was a good deal.