BREXIT: Planning for No Deal.

As the possibility of a no deal Brexit starts to move worryingly close to the time frame in which health care leaders have to make decisions, attention is turning to the small print of exactly what this dramatic scenario would mean.

Some high-profile reports, and much debate ahead of the recent Budget, have focused on what it would mean for the tax revenue that funds the service. Others have tried to calculate the price of stockpiling – sometimes forgetting that the ultimate amount of medicines the NHS needs would remain the same.

But what about permanent increases in the prices of the products the NHS purchases, driven by the sharp rise in red tape and trade barriers involved in a no deal scenario? These are not just one-offs like costs incurred in stockpiling: they will stay as an additional claim on the NHS budget every year until or unless trading relations change.

The level of uncertainty here is large and cannot be eliminated. As the government’s impact assessment notes, no country has ever left a major trading bloc before. But academic studies on trade, the facts of NHS finances, and the government’s impact assessment do give us enough to reach ballpark estimates for some key categories. [More detail on the assumptions I used can be seen in our supporting document.]

The overall figure adds up to £2.3 billion in extra costs for the NHS by the end of 2019/20.

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/how-much-would-nhs-costs-rise-if-there-s-no-brexit-deal?gclid=Cj0KCQiAsdHhBRCwARIsAAhRhsk7z7BGwKo4SdtdRWNDvlf7oNcLlGdioZtOTC08drIyfkYZZ0cSbxcaAtNxEALw_wcB

Soon people will start complaining about the cost of their summer holiday, all down to Brexit. The £ has dropped dramatically meaning that holidays anywhere outside the UK will be significantly higher. Of course imports will be higher too and I doubt that will be offset by exports. Will people blame Brexit? I doubt it, they will still assume some multi-millionaire is raking it in. I am currently booking a holiday and playing one travel company against another to get a good price for the same holiday. You would be surprised at how hard they are trying to get my business. I doubt they are making huge profits.

Remainer MP’s are using all sorts of reasons to justify themselves not voting for the deal, the truth is that they don’t want any deal, they want to go against the referendum results and stay in the EU.That they dress it up as other things just shows their arrogance and hypocracy.

I really don't believe there will be major problems for goods coming into the UK although there will be some disruption. That is because trucks can be waved through as they are now with minimum formalities.
Trucks leaving the UK are a different matter EU countries are going to want proper documentation checks, that will slow down the trade.

We could chose to treat imports from the EU as we do now, wave them through without checks, trusting the EU standards, although would of course have to treat us as a third country, but what about "take back control of our borders?"

The choice is not between TMs "deal" and "no deal" the third option is no Brexit.
Compared to TMs deal, no Brexit is a no brainier because it gives us a say in EU policy that we are going to be tied to anyway.
Don't underestimate the cost of accepting the EU trade terms that have not even begun, we have already given up any negotiating strength.

I voted to Leave. I didn’t vote for a ‘deal’ with the EU.
What happened anyway to ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’? As Brexit day approaches in 80 days I feel there will a lot of chicanery and horse trading going on.

If you are considering, even for a moment, that leaving the EU with no deal would be perfectly OK, please read this-

Brexit: What happens if UK leaves the EU with no deal?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-leave-no-deal-what-happens-eu-talks-david-davis-a8460416.html

I voted to Leave. I didn’t vote for a ‘deal’ with the EU.

Well it was very naive of you to think that we could disentangle ourselves from 40+ years of integration in the European community by just cutting all ties and flouncing off.

It was always clear to more thoughtful people that withdrawal would be complex and involve a great deal of negotiation. And would take much longer than the 2 years following the invocation of Article 50.

Also that it would cost a packet and leave the UK in a worse economic position.

I care about our economy and don't think the media pay enough attention to what will happen if we leave with either the deal or no deal. If we accept the deal that will only be the beginning, there will still be lots of negotiations about trade deals and they hold the trump card because they can keep the backstop if we don't agree their terms.

If there is no deal how will we agree good terms with all the 70+ countries who already have deals with the EU? I can think of no reason they would give this little country better terms than a block of 27 countries.

Good point Nonnie These facts are so important.

In today's febrile climate the sane Remainers just need to start shouting a bit more loudly before it is too late.

The leave campaign promised a great deal, which would be easy.

Yes crystaltipps, David Davis stated on the day article fifty was signed that "these will be the easiest negotiations ever concluded".

The above demonstrates I feel how little research the leave campaign had done into the European Union treaties that bind all members states and which Britain willingly signed up to.

And then they state that Britain is being bullied by the EU. what a joke these leave leaders are.

The HoC has just voted to prevent a no deal brexit.

I'm sure that Teflon Theresa will find a way round that, varian

With a no-deal we're sunk.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/07/no-deal-brexit-lorry-test-branded-pointless-farce-89-vehicles/

So where were all the HGV drivers ? They were offered £550 for the day yet hardly any turned up

They voted 303-296 not to release funds for planning for a no deal
Brexit unless voted on by Parliament, as part of the Finance Bill

MawBroon, as understand it, the haulage companies where offered £550 for putting their vehicles at the disposal of the Department of Transport and the Country Council for the day. The larger road transport companies had to take their daily standing charge out of the above sum, the diesel for the trip and the daily wage/salary of the diver.

The owner-drivers at the event also had the above costs. So not much profit would be seen by anyone from messing around all day proving nothing but window dressing for this excuse for a government.

Apparently one of the TV outlets approached an owner-driver and that was where the five hundred and fifty figure for the driver came from, as read it.

It can't have been seen by hauliers as a particularly profitable thing to do. Apparently there were meant to be 150 lorries in the 'exercise' but only 89 turned up.

Deputy Calais Mayor says they are preparing for a no-deal Brexit and "we will be ready" No more trucks will be stopped crossing the Channel than at present, no extra checks, nothing which would cause delays at Dover. Calais has been preparing for the last year.

I guess this will not make main stream media headlines.

The remainders are putting all their eggs in the "project fear" basket, hoping that leavers wil eventually come round to their way of thinking???

If the French at Calais say they are not going to do anything different what "planning" has been necessary? Why are the UK government spending billions on stockpiling, lorry parks, ferry companies with no ferries, military manoeuvres etc if its all "project fear" and nothing will change? If nothing is going to change why are we doing this???? Makes no sense.

It is possible it is all part of a plan to frighten MPs into voting for the plan.

Just listened to the news and no mention that there has been a vote against a no deal. Maybe it will be on World at One

Nonnie it was not a vote against no-deal it was in fact an amendment to a Finance Bill.

What the vote means is that if the government want "funds" to put in place emergency plans for no-deal, they have to get approval from parliament, before the funds are /are not released.

Well explained GrannyGravy13. Thank you for the clarification. Perhaps a timely one before any Remainers get ahead of themselves.