2019

paddyanne I think there will be an increase in votes for Plaid Cymru now Leanne lost the leadership , but I doubt very much a big breakthrough. Another surprise in the bi elections was at a time the tories are in turmoil , Merthyr Tydfil , only 4% increase in the labour vote . Wales is too poor to become independent.

I hear the call for Independence in Wales is growing Annie I have Welsh relations ,from Newport Sth Wales and they have alwys been pro indpendence so they are delighted to see a rise in the polls .

Something going wrong for Labour in South Wales, local bi elections were surprising, Port Talbot lost 49% of labour votes , if this can happen there !

I believe that Theresa May's deal will be voted down by parliament. However, the House of Commons will then vote against a no deal exit and article 50 will be suspended with the approval of the EU Commision.

I further believe the country will remain in that situation for a considerable period of time (possibly years) as democracy in Britain fails to deal with the unsolvable problems that the Brexit leaders and negotiators have landed this nation with.

Oh, I further believe that both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will be replaced as main party leaders within the next six months.

My interest is primarily in the Scottish dimension to UK/European politics.

My prediction is that early in 2019 the Scottish Government will invoke the 'Claim of Right' (which was reaffirmed by the Westminster Parliament in 2018) and declaring that the Treaty of Union has been broken, recall Scottish Based MPs from Westminster to Edinburgh. The SG will then state their intention that Scotland shall remain in the EU but withdraw from the 1715 Union Treaty - the right to withdraw is enshrined in the Treaty itself.

Might be wishful thinking on my part but such a scenario would allow England and Wales, to Brexit with a large majority in favour and most people getting what they want.

maryeliza54 sadly I too agree, I think TM has successfully counted down the clock so her deal will get through; I feel amazed and despairing of our democracy that she has been able to do this, we might as well live in a dictatorship...

maryeliza54, not very often I agree with you on a political thread, but on this occasion I think you are spot on.

Even if we have a GE, whoever gets the “top job”it will still be the same.

To try and answer your question OP I’m increasingly thinking TM’s deal will be voted through, there will be a change of PM and then there will be the growing realisation that all political energies will continue to be focussed on dealing with the consequences of the deal and the domestic agenda will continue to be completely sidelined.

People will continue to fall out on here and get personal.