What next?

well said urmston. great post.

We will end up leaving on no deal and WTO and I am so excited.

And, the Flexcit plan which Rogers mentions was for a staged withdrawal over a decade via a Norway type agreement. Which would have involved accepting Free Movement (which I don't think, to their credit, it's authors were at all bothered about) and EU standards and regulations.

All the leave voters who thought that they could vote Leave one day and be out of the EU the next day would have hated it.

Also, Italy has a nice new market to export their cheese and prosecco to with the deals recently made with Canada and Japan. They won't need us if they're canny about their marketing.

We should have gone for an orderly, plannned Leave on WTO terms right at the start

I don't know how many times trade experts have to tell us that WTO is the worst possible deal for the penny to drop. WTO is what nations fall back onto if they have no better deals. That's why they try to get away from them as fast as they possibly can. You don't do 'deals' with WTO.

And WTO does not comprehensively cover services, which are our prime export.

You're right that we should have gone for an orderly planned leave, but there was no 'plan' and the tories have been fighting about it ever since. The leave campaigners had no plan because they couldn't articulate one, much less one that they all agreed on; they took a deliberate decision not to offer any sort of plan because fighting about the different ideas they had would dilute their message. So they concentrated on negatives, heightening fears and revving up hatred for the EU (as I said in an earlier post on this thread)

This is how one of our top Civil Servants, who had considerable experience of dealing with the EU (and who May pretty rapidly sacked because his advice was unpalatable to her) recently analysed the situation:

The Institute of Economic Affairs indeed offered a large prize, once David Cameron’s Bloomberg speech had dangled the realistic prospect of a referendum to decide whether to stay or leave, to help define an agreed destination and exit path. Because they could see the looming crisis over what on earth Brexiteers could ever coalesce around both as the destination and the path to reach it.

But the winner’s model was quietly, rapidly – and, I might add, sensibly, given that it obviously did not work – buried.

And the most thoughtful sceptic attempts to map an exit route – embodied, I think, in a lengthy tome called Flexcit, which is a genuine, serious attempt at least to grapple with what insider experts knew were inordinately complex issues - were spurned by the mainstream Brexiteers, despite some brief dabbling by the likes of Owen Paterson
.
Why? I am afraid that is simple.

Because as soon as you have to define what you really DO want post Brexit, as opposed to what you don’t want, and as soon as you have to map out a genuinely viable very complex path to exiting an organisation you have been part of for 45 years, and which has inserted itself in every domain of UK life – which is exactly what you most object to about it - the unity completely fragments, and small differences about where we actually want to go become large ones

Dominic Cummings, when chairing Vote Leave, shrewdly deliberately avoided proposing any plan and focussed the entire campaign on what it didn’t want, and ensuring that resonated with the maximum number of voters who might find Brexit appealing, but would have radically different ideas of what it would deliver for them.

The last thing he, or the political leaders of the campaign, wished to do was to set out a proposed destination, and a route map to reach it.

That would have completely torn the fragile coalition apart. And it would have exposed the desirability of the destination, in comparison with a status quo with which much of the public had very good reasons to feel unhappy, to close scrutiny.

It would have been unwise to disappoint people who were prepared to vote, for very different reasons, for Brexit -and I am not disparaging either the reasons or the people, I am just saying the reasons were often mutually contradictory - by specifying a clear destination which opponents could then have dismantled. Far better to keep the destination vague and to focus the assault on that people can see they do not like about the ancien regime.

Now, you either put your trust in the knowledge and expertise of civil servants, and their professional objectivity, or you, like many Leavers I have encountered on social media, scoff at them on the grounds that they are all Remainers and disbelieve everything they say.

It's a bit rich, really, to hear a Leaver suggest that expert negotiators and top civil service advice was what was needed from the start when the Leave leaders having been shouting for the last two years that they are all traitorous Remainers.

I suggest, yet again that people read the whole lecture themselves.

www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/sir_ivan_rogers_lecture_ucl_22012019.pdf

Urmston they will still have 27 countries to export to. I am more concerned with the EU has suggestion to the 70+ countries which the EU has trade deals with give the UK the same deal as them if we agree a deal with them. Why would they give us that?

It’s not over yet folks.
We may yet have some leverage. Business is not the same as politics!

‘Meanwhile, the economic ramifications of a no-deal Brexit are weighing heavily on Italian business, particularly the food and drink sector, which sold €3.5 billion of goods to Britain last year.

There is deep concern for the future export of some of Italy’s most iconic products, from Parmigiano cheese to Prosecco. The thirsty Brits are the number one export market for Prosecco and winemakers are concerned that the trade will be hit hard by new tariffs. Cheese makers are worried, too – €90 million worth of Grana Padana and Parmigiano Reggiano is sold to the UK each year.

“We risk losing access to the British market to a significant degree,” warned Massimiliano Giansanti, the president of Confagricoltura, a national farmers union.’

Can’t wait to leave...The UK that is.
Have already ditched my UK driving licence, citizenship comes next then I can have my lovely new EU passport.

The sad fact is Tusk is right that Boris and Co. never had a plan. I do feel some sympathy for the leavers who are so blind to economic reality that they genuinely think if they wish for something hard enough, it will happen.

Que sera sera.

Actually I agree with you ladies. Why should the EU help us out here? (Well apart from money & business deals which suit them as well as us).
In my opinion we negotiated this all wrong from the get go.
Theresa the Appeaser tried to be inclusive and please all the voters and ended up pleasing no one.
I don’t think she has a Plan B Nonnie, sadly. It’s her way or the highway.
We should have gone for an orderly, plannned Leave on WTO terms right at the start. We should have said to the EU you are welcome to come to London if you have any proposals you’d like to put forward in striking future deals and we’d be happy to discuss them.
Businesses, although not liking it, would have had the clarity they’ve been banging on about.
We should have had a couple of crack negotiators in the team along with civil servants to guide us through what was achievable etc.
But here we are.

By the way Tusk spoke it was clear that he was very reticence, he didn’t like say it, speaking his mind, he is clearly frustrated. TM has to get the message it’s the UKs
problem, there will be no more negotiating a better deal.

He was dead right about the Brexit leaders, there was no plan, they just thought they could bluster the EU into concessions ( and still do). All along it has been a very emotional line taken by the U.K. whereas the EU have been business like, just dealing with cold hard facts. JC is now at last coming up with some positive moves instead of sitting on the fence, maybe that will provide a breakthrough who knows.

So right mcem. I think voters on both sides of this fiasco would probably agree with him. I think his timing was deliberate, wanting to set the scene for TM. I still can't believe she hasn't got something up her sleeve because I understand she is intelligent, just haven't seen any signs yet.

I agree with him.
He did not say that everyone who voted brexit deserves to go to hell. The point was that the chaos is entirely the fault of those who advocated brexit without planning and forward thinking.
I believe he is saying that the blame lies with the self-serving and the irresponsible politicians but ultimately not with the gullible voter!
No point in blaming him for saying what so many of us have thought all along!
I wish some of our politicians had had the guts to stand up and shout it out earlier.

Sorry jura2. You are right but I was dashing out before!
But here it is:

“I’ve been wondering what the special place in Hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out,” he said as he stood alongside a startled looking Leo Varadkar in Brussels today.

The incendiary comments grabbed a lot of attention, which presumably was precisely Mr Tusk’s intention.

But do the president of the European Council’s words help or hinder Theresa May in getting her Brexit deal across the line?

There was some help for the embattled Prime Minister. Mr Tusk threw those who hope for a second referendum or a volte face on Brexit under the bus.

“Today there’s no political path and no effective leadership for Remain. I say this without satisfaction but you can’t argue with the facts,” he said, decrying the pro-Brexit stance of Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn.

The choice was now binary. It is, as Mrs May has always claimed, the Brexit deal or no deal at all.

Next came a warning for the Prime Minister and the Brexiteers desperate for changes to the Irish border backstop. It was not up for renegotiation, he said for the umpteenth time.

“We will not gamble with peace or put a sell-by date on reconciliation,” he said.

“The EU27 is not making any new offer. The Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation,” he said but he also called on Mrs May to make “a realistic suggestion on how to end the impasse”.

But why SHOULD they care about us? Apart from missing our financial contributions.
To them Brexit is just a thorn in the flesh, a waste of working hours.
They've all got their own problems anyway.

Tusk seems to be a major foot in mouth kinda guy!
Strange when you consider his position ( but then so is Junker) maybe it’s catching.

Urmstongran- you should really quote what Tusk said in full.

and I totally agree with him. It was criminal in my view. And will have a massive negative effect not only on the UK, but the whole of the EU.

Framilode....a very peculiar statement from you , would you really like to see no deal simply to feel smug for five minutes? Bizarre!

Excellent post MaizeD.

As a strong remainer Andy I too want Britain to leave with no deal. I will be delighted to let you see the consequences of what you voted for and even more delighted to say 'told you so'.

Urmstongran, hello and kind regards.

I am so excited to leave on no deal and for Britain to be great again. All will be well.
I have no problem when people with another view decide to rant at me, I find that hilarious most entertaining.

The majority who voted, voted out and we will leave. Time for me to celebrate.

Best regards Andy

Thank you too MaizieD It’s good to talk rationally whatever our views.

I believe we have ‘a special place in hell’ anyway now -
Donald Tusk.
Oh heck.

In the short term perhaps some of us weighed it all up and still thought it was worth that hit.

This is what mystifies me and all the Remainers I know. What actual harm was the EU causing to people who voted Leave? We have tried for the last 2 years to pin this down but no-one has given us an answer. Our latest attempt to get a poster to tell us about the 'petty EU rules' that have blighted her life has gone unanswered.

We've heard a lot about possible potential harm; being involved in the possible crash of the euro (when, quite frankly, if the euro were to crash it would cause harm internationally whether we were in or out), conscription to an EU army, when in all the discussions I have seen there has never been a sniff of possible conscription; being overrun by EU immigrants who take our jobs (eh? when we keep being told we have 'full employment?), clog up our health services (when most EU immigrants are young and healthy and don't need our health services), hog our scarce housing resources (when our governments have made no effort to increase our housing stocks), put pressure on our schools (unlike non EU immigrants I suppose?) when our government has slashed spending on schools, and made it difficult to increase provision, for purely ideological reasons. It seems to me that the campaign for Leave was one great Project Fear and it worked a treat.

Positives? We're offered nothing but the 'hope' that we'll be alright in the end.

This wasn't a bl**dy football match, Urmstongran. if your team loses it can play again next week and try to win. And, as nonnie has pointed out, if a team is caught cheating it can be rectified. The damage done to our country is apparent right now and will take years and years to heal; if it ever does. It's far too big an issue for a shoulder shrug and 'better luck next time'.

I could say more but I have to go out. I know you're trying to be conciliatory but it's not doing anything for me. Sorry.

Urmston It’s like a football match we’re the winning team win by only one goal and the losers are furious because the goal was scored by a deflection. But the result holds. They match doesn’t get ‘re-run’ to give a fairer result. Fans are outraged. Yes, but when the referee's decision is challenged because he was wrong he has to change it when VAR proves he made a mistake! Did't know I knew that much about football

^ everything that goes wrong will get blamed on Brexit.^ I don't think so, I think the Leavers will say it is all the government's fault and nothing to do with Brexit and the Remainers will blame Brexit

And I suppose there we have it in a nutshell MaizieD.

Skilled workers (amongst the 52%) voted to Leave.
Seems ‘stupid’ to the Remainers. Some say on tv well we didn’t vote to make ourselves poorer?

But maybe we did. In the short term perhaps some of us weighed it all up and still thought it was worth that hit. What was even called the ‘Project Fear’ at the time of the referendum - the crash in the housing market, debit cost per capita etc - still didn’t deter the 52% of voters. People were astounded. You’d have to question why they did it.

Nissan workers even now are saying they wouldn’t vote any differently.

And I agree totally that the Remainers get dragged into something they didn’t vote for and now are scared, furious, despairing. It must be awful for them. I can understand.

It split parliament, friends, families. The rift will never heal unless it works out well. Which is a leap of faith. And until then everything that goes wrong will get blamed on Brexit.

But there’s nothing anyone can do about it. We are where we are (sorry all those who said recently it was one of their pet hated sayings). It’s called democracy. Even if we end up on the ‘losing’ side. It’s like a football match we’re the winning team win by only one goal and the losers are furious because the goal was scored by a deflection. But the result holds. They match doesn’t get ‘re-run’ to give a fairer result. Fans are outraged. But life moves on and eventually they get over the hurt.

And yes, some will say but we are playing with people’s livelihoods it’s not a bluddy football match. I can sympathise with their strong hurts. But the result still stands.

What can we do? We because parliament is so split and in fact there are more Remain MP’s than Leave (even though the majority of their constituents voted to Leave - yes I’m looking at you Yvette Cooper & Anna Soubry) - the people who voted Remain have a really fantastic chance that these MP’s will action what may well ameliorate what the Leavers voted for. It is disingenuous in my opinion, but I appreciate it is most likely to happen. Mrs May’s deal (via Ollie Robbins) is a dog’s dinner. She has tried to please both sides and pleased no one in the process. Everyone is howling at her because if she doesn’t come up with something soon, we leave on WTO terms by default as that’s the legal situation. But the Remainers won’t give up without a major fight. So the Remainers can be hopeful even now.

And the Leavers? Sad, disillusioned and deflated because we damn well know had the referendum gone the other way and it was ‘business as usual’ we would never had the power to try to reverse it .... because the Establishment are very much Remain and they would just quite David Cameron’s statement - ‘a once in a lifetime opportunity and we will implement your decision’.

I live in the North East, Urmstongran. I know that the workers at the Nissan plant are extremely good and very well regarded. The NE was one of Britain's industrial powerhouses, it's always had good workers. But its workers are not irreplaceable. They voted Leave and have to live with the consequences of what they wished for.

Unfortunately, so do the 48% of UK voters who didn't wish for it.

I imagine Polly Toynbee is not the favourite cup of tea of the Brexiters. But she says it very well- the Dunkirk spirit is not likely to last long.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/05/dunkirk-spirit-no-deal-brexit-crashing-out-eu?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2xOeEryCEHpHHdBErJAkVim4uPtTY68ahryC0LI1ty00hH2A_X_KChp34