Are we nearly there?

I’m not varian but the gentleman who wrote that article on 39 October 2018 most certainly is!

He’s Simon Schuster a policy Fellow at the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.

I think he is trying to illustrate the fallibility of polls. But we all know that already don’t we! Who trusts polls nowadays!

Most people would agree with you, crystaltipps

I never felt ruled or bullied by the EU and I don’t think most people did either. However we are actually being ruled and bullied by the party within a party, the ERG, who are not following their party’s manifesto, and furthering their own interests by heading for a no deal Brexit. Those who believe a no deal Brexit means a “clean break” and an end to political wrangling and money pouring into our public services truly are thick or deluded.

I take it that you are not a statistician UG. Just look at the evidence of 58 polls taken since Jan 2018. The evidence of a consistent REMAIN lead is overwhelming.

whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

Well Varian I don’t know one person who has changed their mind,most people are even more determined.So much scaremongering going on ,We’ve had lies & scaremongering from day one.

I am very torn on this issue but one thing I'm clear about is (I believe, in large part, due to this awful government) that this country is in a pretty poor state at the moment, with much of our vital infrastructure - transportation, communication, water, energy, etc., in a fairly parlous state. Add to that the problems with education (particularly higher education), justice, health, housing, social care, etc, etc, etc., I'm not sure we are in a fit state to stand alone. I am not bored with what is happening but rather frightened - as is my son who works in the City and who says many firms are moving or making arrangements to move out of the UK. Whilst I think we are too dependent on the finance sector and London, that is where we are now and if things go downhill there, we will, in my opinion, be very vulnerable - having, in desperation, to accept trade deals from any source that is available.

I understand why many people voted to leave - particularly in less affluent areas - but perhaps the MPs in many of those areas feel that they are representing their constituents' best interests. It could be seen as quite undemocratic, pompous and paternalistic but my guess is most MPs will not suffer unduly whatever happens, whereas if things go badly wrong many other people may find themselves in difficulty.

Good posts NemosMum ???

I agree Nemosmum,British people are resilient & my whole family voted to leave.....young & old,the EU will be gone within a few years,several countries seem to have had enough of the bullying & I certainly don’t want to be ruled by Brussels.The problem has been Mrs May.....she is a remainer & doesn’t want to leave.......should have been sorted out by now ,thats why there is so much uncertainty in the country.Should have been a Brexiteer doing the negotiations.

Varian I am with you and think you are the only one who has talked any sense in this sorry mess. Three Torys have already left the party lets hope some more from both Tory and Labour see sense and leave.

As opposed to being ruled and bullied by the EU ?

Hopefully we are nearly there as there isn’t long to go before we leave, with or without a deal.

Well varian

“Though a poll’s full methodology is rarely provided, margin of error, which in actuality is the margin of sampling error, is regularly available. For instance, say Candidate A is polled at 54 percent, while Candidate B is polled at 46 percent. Yet the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Although candidate A appears to be ahead, statistically they’re tied — something that media outlets don’t consistently report.

It means candidate A’s real level of support is likely between 49 and 59 percent. Candidate B’s real level, then, is 41 and 51 percent. But this only gauges the error in sampling voters. Other kinds of errors can also skew results.”

Are you posting on the correct thread varian? This one is whether we think a deal is imminent.

Unfortunately I don't think a deal is imminent - and now fear the whole country is being ruled and bullied by the ERG.

That cliff edge grows ever nearer..... DS says he can't wait for all the Brexiteers to realise that they were wrong, but I worry about the future. DD has a 'Brexit box' of emergency supplies ready for the food shortages. OMG what have we done?!

The "will of the people" has changed now that more people have learned what brexit could actually mean. The average of the last six polls shows REMAIN 54% leave 46%. It is a very long time since any poll showed a majority in favour of quitting the EU.

whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

Those who are wetting themselves with excitement at the thought of how marvellous life is going to be come March 29 don’t be surprised if the wasteful and calamitous political sh*tshow that is Brexit doesn’t stop plus rainbows and unicorns don’t appear.

marieeliz to which 'unelected Europhiles' do you refer? I'm an unelected Europhile, and I would guess Varian is too. How do you plan to get rid of us?

ooooh David Lammy... a most interesting view............

hmmm

biased? I wonder................

varian you are a darling

but ..dearest we are leaving ..full stop

democracy.....

majority of voters? understand? pet?

it will be no deal ..the only true brexit by default...

what is so hard to understand?

love your posts though.. keep going ...

I am very excited . not long now til out...

have a fab evening everyone

spring nearly here

Varian your post is scaremongering. The usual Remainers chant. We are leaving, cannot wait to get rid of unelected Europhiles.

And varian

“The fact that a no-deal Brexit will mean deaths that would not have occurred otherwise, demands that the UK Government cannot contemplate no deal."

And the *opposite is equally true*: there will be deaths that otherwise would not have happened if we suddenly decided to remain. The claimed deaths are not foreseeable, unless people are seriously proposing that the EU will launch a blockade against the UK if there is no deal. Business will continue: it’s not in the interest of anyone - barring politicians - for it not to. Pure fear-mongering clickbait.

Well at least this time you've referred to a more rational point of view varian. Shame you decided to ignore my last post.

Varian Please will you be my friend? Your thoughtful and carefully expressed views are correct. Mrs May is merely attempting to paper over the cracks in her own party by pandering to the ideological far-right in the ERG. On the basis of today's first three leavers, her papering-over has been seen for the lunacy it is by some of her own MPs. Doubtless others will follow. I am amazed that now that the serial lies provided by leave.eu and their fellow travellers have been exposed, that the Electoral Commission has fined the leave side for illegal funding, etc, etc, (we won't even mention serial philanderer B Johnson, who has been sacked at least twice for lying, and who assisted a friend who wanted to beat up a journalist) that people still believe the tissue of lies on which the leave campaign relied. Do people really want to return to the past? Are British people really xenophobic? Do people really want life to be worse, for us all to be poorer, for our children and grandchildren having so much opportunity snatched away from them because some people believed lies written on the side of a bus? Really? Really? Oh, and anyone who thinks a hard border in N Ireland won't matter has failed to learn the lessons of history.

David Lammy MP put the situation very clearly-.

"Every generation likes to see themselves as though they are on the precipice of history.

We like to feel that our actions could have a profound impact on our children, our children’s children and their descendents too. In the urgency of the present, we can easily exaggerate the influence our choices will have on determining the future.

In Britain in 2019, however, we must be in no doubt that this is truly a rare moment of historic importance.

Brexit is a crisis on a scale that far surpasses our last major international embarrassment, in Suez in 1956. Economically, politically, culturally, diplomatically and in terms of security, leaving the European Union is an unprecedented disaster that will send the United Kingdom on an inescapable downwards trajectory.

We can still avert this crisis, but politicians are failing to show the courage required. A clear majority of my colleagues in parliament know that Brexit will hurt their constituents, but they still believe it serves their own narrow self-interests to allow it. MPs are putting political expediency above the national interest. They are too afraid to tell the truth. As these politicians will not listen to reasoned argument, only electoral threat, the time has come for the public to show them that they will not be forgiven for this failure."

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-final-say-peoples-vote-brexit-march-protest-second-referendum-david-lammy-a8781716.html

Here, here Naniejel! All this talk of a 'people's vote' makes me cross! I'm a person, I voted, my vote counted & now I expect the result to be honoured. Is it truly democracy when we have to keep voting till we get the 'right' answer, like kids doing sums?

The 'threat' you are referring too appeared in the article you have quoted from and provided a link too varian.

Let's get real, there will be plenty of MP's who wont vote through TM's deal because of their own party politics and to further their own careers.

Imagine you were currently fighting cancer and read the article you've posted here. Are some remainers so desperate that they're prepared to put the fear of God into others just to get their own way?