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Newport West by election

(23 Posts)
Anniebach Fri 05-Apr-19 21:35:25

Strong labour seat, voted leave in the referendum

Labour 9,308. down 12.7%

Conservatives 7,357. down 8 %

UKIP 2,023 up 6.1%

Plaid Cymru, Lib Dem , Green increased votes

2017 election

Labour 22,723 votes

maryeliza54 Fri 05-Apr-19 22:13:22

Anyone who thinks a by election tells us anything and particularly at a tine like this is not thinking at all - apples and pears

Callistemon Fri 05-Apr-19 23:44:33

By-elections may give unusual results, particularly during uncertain times.

Perhaps the high number of Labour votes in previous elections were because people voted for the person - the previous popular MP Paul Flynn.
Added to that, there has been an influx of people to Newport from elsewhere due to the number of new houses built and still being built there; that could change the demographic

The UKIP candidate was Neil Hamilton.

Baggs Sat 06-Apr-19 08:06:41

It is interesting that both the Labour and Conservative parties have lost significant percentages of their votes, which other smaller parties have picked up. It is only one by-election but Lab and Con losing votes is exactly what one would expect after all the BigB shenanigans and incompetence.

Anniebach Sat 06-Apr-19 08:29:56

I doubt there has been such an influx of people and new houses since 2017

maryeliza54 Sat 06-Apr-19 09:09:17

Exactly Baggs

Callistemon Sat 06-Apr-19 10:00:28

Since news of plans to abolish the tolls were announced in July 2017, estate agents in the area have been reporting an influx of potential buyers from across the Severn Estuary.

At the 2017 election, Flynn’s majority over the Tories was 5,658. In 1997, Flynn had a 14,357 majority.

Added to which, Ruth Jones is a remainer in a constituency which voted to leave.

Anniebach Sat 06-Apr-19 10:05:08

Yes Callistemon but no way does the influx explain the drop in support for Labour and Conservative.

MaizieD Sat 06-Apr-19 10:14:27

Just two things occur to me.

A 37% turnout seems to indicate a reversion to lack of interest in 'democracy' (election turnouts never being very high usually)

A low turnout means that percentages will look high. e.g 1 person out of 5 = 20% 1 person out of 50 = 2%

I find my first point depressing.

Callistemon Sat 06-Apr-19 10:20:27

Yes Callistemon but no way does the influx explain the drop in support for Labour and Conservative.
You're right - it (and the low turnout) is probably a protest against the shambles that is going on at the moment.

Anniebach Sat 06-Apr-19 10:36:15

True, I spoke to people who campaigned there, voters were simply fed up with politics

mcem Sat 06-Apr-19 10:46:28

How desperate voters must feel to return a 6% increase for UKIP with the idiot Hamilton standing!

Callistemon Sat 06-Apr-19 11:22:32

He is an AM and leader of the UKIP group in the Welsh Assembly, mcem.

Perhaps those who voted to leave the EU, who were the majority in Newport, feel that Ruth Jones would not be representing their views as an MP so voted for Hamilton.

mcem Sat 06-Apr-19 15:03:50

I say again that if you vote in the hope that Neil Hamilton will prove to be a decent, honest representative (at any level, in any context) then there has to be an element of desperation and I am sorry for anyone who finds herself in that position.

Callistemon Sat 06-Apr-19 16:14:55

I do hope that post is not aimed at me.

lemongrove Sat 06-Apr-19 16:16:55

Such a very low turn out to vote means that people are sick of politicians and their promises.

mcem Sat 06-Apr-19 16:24:02

Certainly not aimed at anyone.
Your post added interesting formation.
Simply reiterating my thoughts on Neil Hamilton in any capacity and the desperation that sections of the electorate must be feeling.

Callistemon Sat 06-Apr-19 16:32:11

They are certainly sick of the two main parties and many are so fed up with the debacle in Parliament that they just could not be bothered to turn out to vote.
All the candidates were local with the exception of Hamilton.

grannyrebel99 Sat 13-Apr-19 19:40:11

All those people who couldn't be bothered to vote should be ashamed of themselves. Newport has always been a labour stronghold but never with such a poor majority. Let's hope Ruth Jones can do some good in the city - we definitely need some improvements.

Anniebach Sat 13-Apr-19 20:34:34

Why should the people of Newport West be ashamed ?

Callistemon Sat 13-Apr-19 20:39:52

I don't think they should be ashamed - they are probably heartily sick of what is going on in Parliament at the moment and perhaps did not know how to vote.

lemongrove Sat 13-Apr-19 20:44:59

The two main parties will continue to see low electoral turn outs for them, it’s inevitable after the way Parliament has behaved.

Callistemon Sat 13-Apr-19 20:47:16

I must say that Newport keeps trying but never quite manages to get there, grannyrebel