Project Fear- they said ...

A few weeks after Brexit, someone I know who works in a senior position for a prestige car manufacturer said that Brexit would kill the UK car manufacturing business. When I repeated this, even to remain supporting friends, it was dismissed as scaremongering. Hmm

Apologies posted prematurely- this was announced on Radio 2 news at lunchtime.

Ford are also laying off 5,000 in Germany.

I believe Ford are concentrating their production of electric vehicles in the European plants. Surprise surprise.

Varian, not to mention Honda is closing down in Swindon and while a lot of the close downs are linked to falling demand for motor vehicles, Brexit is considered to have contributed to the decsion.

I fear we are heading for a recession, and feel very sorry for the many who will lose their jobs. We have high employment now, but many jobs are in retail, which is on the wane, call centres, service industries, and delivery drivers. Mostly low paid. Brexit is exacerbating the situation, and it doesn't look like a shiny future afterwards. We will definitely be the junior partner in negotiations with USA, who can't wait to get their hands on the NHS. DT has said that he believes that social health systems obtain drugs too cheaply. The UK government bargains and controls prices, and monitors value and efficacy (NICE). The US health system is more fragmented, and despite them using fewer prescription drugs than UK they are much more expensive, one of the most expensive countries in the world in fact. No doubt the big US pharma companies are very excited at the prospect of Brexit.

Ford has confirmed plans to close its engine plant at "Bridgend in South Wales by September 2020, saying it faced becoming "economically unsustainable" in the world's drive for electric vehicles.

The company ruled out a Brexit link after it made the formal announcement, saying that consultations on its proposals had begun with its 1,700 staff and their representatives."

news.sky.com/story/fords-bridgend-engine-plant-to-shut-by-september-2020-11735935

So- nothing to do with brexit then, yet this article is from the Financial Times 26th July 2016 suggests that it is very much to do with brexit-

"Ford is considering closing plants in the UK and across Europe in response to Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as it forecast a $1bn hit to its business over the next two years. The US motor company, which is the biggest car brand in the UK, will also raise the price of cars sold in Britain before the end of the year. Bob Shanks, chief financial officer, said a rise was needed to claw back money lost through foreign exchange movements.

Sterling has fallen by 11 per cent against the dollar since the vote on June 23, leaving companies that sell into the UK facing lower revenues in the months ahead. Ford warned of a difficult second half of the year for carmakers, with weaknesses in the US and Chinese markets adding to headwinds caused by Brexit and currency swings. The warning, combined with Ford missing expectations in the second quarter, because of weaker sales in China and the US, sent its shares down more than 9 per cent to $12.52 in late-morning trading in New York.

Mr Shanks said a combination of sterling’s devaluation and an expected hit to the UK car market would cost Ford $200m this year and another $400m to $500m each year over the next two years. “We’re going to have to look more at cost,” he said. The company would find a way to “claw that back”.

Questions have been raised over prospects for the UK’s car industry in the wake of the Brexit ballot, with analysts questioning whether the plants can win fresh work during a period of uncertainty over trade and the country’s position in the single European market. Ford’s two remaining UK plants are at Bridgend and Dagenham, making engines that are exported to other EU countries for final assembly. Ford then reimports many of these engines in completed vehicles for sale in the UK.

Analysts have warned that some carmakers would be forced to close plants in the UK if it faces trade barriers with the rest of Europe after Brexit. Ford has already closed all its remaining UK carmaking plants in the past five years, as well as one in Belgium with the loss of 5,700 jobs. Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations, Mr Shanks said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”.

www.ft.com/content/5f20ead4-54c5-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

A true warning Jura

About that red bus- I wonder how many people would have voted Leave if it had read 'We give 350 M to the EU - let's give the NHS to Trump instead' ?

Day6 Wed 05-Jun-19 14:11:01 before reading on from this I feel I must comment.

Where did you get the idea about joining all those countries? You addressed that comment to me but I never said any such thing. I do find it very hard to discuss with people who seem to make up their own interpretation of what others have said.

You don't seem to understand that our trade deals with many of those countries are because we are part of the EU. We will lose them all if we leave the EU. Can you give me a good reason why any of them would negotiate in our favour? The EU has already shown it doesn't need to so why would anyone else? DT has said 'America First' and the other countries will do the same, obviously.

You said It is quite laughable that this is the level of scaremongering. but I think it is It is quite laughable that this is the level of misunderstanding is still being promoted..

Labaik No-one is suggesting that we do not trade with the rest of the world but the EU has negotiated trade agreements with over 30 countries world wide that give EU members free access to their markets and, as an EU member, the UK has benefitted from these. Special trade relations with China date back to the 1970s

Once we come out of the EU we will no longer benefit from these advantagious treaties. In many of these countries we will be paying tariffs on our goods where the same EU products do not pay them at all, which immediately puts our products at a price disadvantage.

Then quite often there are quality agreements such as a country like China agreeing to accept without query all imported electrical goods that meet EU standards, while other goods have to be tested on arrival in China to see if they meet Chinese standards. We would be affected by this even if we keep the EU standards because the trade agreement only applies to EU countries. So all British goods would have to pay tariffs and possibly for retesting in China to meet Chinese standards. Once again increasing the cost of UK goods

Do you remember how, after the free trade agreement between EU members, but before EU agreed electrical standards, France willing accepted tape recorders, I think it was, made in other EU countries, but they all had to be sent to a French testing house as far from the ports and motorways as possible and each one had to be individually tested and approved, practically doubling the price of the imported tape recorders and pricing them out of the French market.

The other thing that can happen is that the EU will raise tariffs on our goods going into the EU and the EU is a major customer for British goods. We may well then set tariffs for EU goods coming into Britain, which will lead to prices going up. Crystaltips you could end up paying more for your tinned tomatoes because there is a tariff to be paid when we import them.

Here is an interesting link to the complexities of a no-deal Brexit and relying on WTO trade regulations. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

This was posted by a nurse, our generation, on a remain site today. I asked her permission to share and she was happy to agree.

' have just posted the last paragraph in inverted commas below on my personal timeline. I have a thirty year career in NHS commissioning - the system by which we secure free health care from various providers including private firms, charities etc. I am fairly neutral re party politics but we are seeing our welfare state being dismantled and the masses supporting it because they blame 'scroungers'. Please help see whats going on before its to late. Consider sharing the paragraph. Thank you.

"Provision of the NHS has always been partly private. Its not the services farage is after. Its our insurance system. National Insurance is a population wide risk sharing scheme. Its this that Farage and Aaron Banks want to run. Its nothing to do with selling things. Its to do with Aaron Banks selling you health insurance. If you can't afford it then you get inferior healthcare. WAKE UP."'

No; I don' understand this idea that we don't trade with the rest of the world, because I've been buying cheap stuff made in China for years.

As we already trade with the USA, China etc I’m not sure how the EU stops us doing that already? Oh I know, instead of buying Italian tinned tomatoes we will be buying American ones. Exciting.

My understanding is that the U.S. pharmaceutical companies object to medicines being sold at a cheaper price in Europe. As part of the E.U. the NHS takes advantage of this but as a small country trying to set up trade deals with the U.S., our NHS will be at the mercy of the big U.S. pharmaceuticals.

How the WTO works - fullfact.org/europe/introduction-world-trade-organisation/

The WTO has 164 members. The EU is the only organisation to be a member of the WTO. All EU member states are also individual members but they always vote as the EU bloc.
(The exception is the EU which has a block vote of 28, soon to be 27.) So as members of the EU we are a party to a possibility of having more influence on the WTO than individual countries.

Trading on WTO terms

The WTO does not have a set of minimum tariffs or rules with which each country must comply. Instead, it has two main elements.

First, it requires each country to set out a list of its tariff rates for each product and service. Each tariff set for a product and service is subject to negotiation with each other member of the WTO. Whether another member seeks to negotiate these tariffs depends upon whether they have an interest in that product.

For large trading states like the USA, China or Brazil these lists or schedules can be extremely long. The EU has a single schedule for all its members and it is quite extensive. All of these are available on the WTO website.

Second, the WTO requires states to apply their individual schedules, and non-tariff rules on packaging or licencing etc., in a non-discriminatory way.

Most-Favoured Nation and National Treatment rules

This non-discrimination breaks down into two basic rules. The first, Most-Favoured Nation, means you must give whatever your best treatment is for foreign products coming into your country to all members of the WTO. For example, if a country cut the tariff on imports of copper from 10% to 5% for exporters from one country, it would have to charge 5% to every other country as well.

The second basic rule, National Treatment, means that you must give your best internal conditions to foreign products or services. For example, if you do not require domestic products to have a warning as to sugar content in food you cannot require it of foreign products. These requirements are set out in detail in the WTO’s core treaties: GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services) and TRIPs (Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights).

But there is a big exception. If you are in a customs union or free trade area, for instance you can treat products and services from the customs, union better than you treat other WTO members. The EU is an example of a customs union .

"when we are able to deal globally rather than within the confines of the EU" but we CAN already make deals outside the EU if we want to. We are NOT restricted to the deals that we make in concert with the rest of the EU (about 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports in 2016.) - but by acting all together we are a bigger unit than one country is when on its own, and can get a better deal with better conditions. However we have ALWAYS been able to act on our own, probably under WTO conditions, when and if we want to and if we accept that we have less clout then.

When and why did this idea catch on that while in the EU we have not been able to make separate trade deals and are tied to only trading as part of the EU? That is false!

See Fullfact on the subject

All the WTO deals with have around the world are as a member of the EU - each and everyone of them will have to be re-negotiated. As Mr Lamy has explained very well in that interview of June 2016. The UK is NOT in a position to negotiate hard for deals, in any way shape or form. It was already the case in 2016- it is much much worse now.

We already trade with many countries in the world and our trade deals with the USA may become bigger and more profitable when we are able to deal globally rather than within the confines of the EU.

I wonder, Day6 if you would care to explain how our trade deals will become bigger and more profitable when we are free of the EU? In what way do the EU terms restrict us in the 700+ trade deals we already have through our membership?

And how they will become bigger and more profitable when we are negotiating as a market of 65 million as opposed to being part of a market of 500+ million? Especially when just about all trade experts, such as Pascal Lamy (in the video I posted on this, or another thread), have said that being a smaller market will weaken our negotiating position.

Some real detail of how the EU apparently holds us back (with links to sources) would be really helpful.

As for the point people are trying to make about an EU trade deal with the US meaning acceptance of US low standards; the EU wouldn't countenance lowering standards of animal welfare and food production in order to obtain a 'deal'. They have sufficient market strength to be able to resist any pressure to do so.This is the advantage of being a large market. An advantage we most certainly wouldn't have on our own.

Steven Bray is amazing, but no longer 'ingognito' for sure

I've invited him to come for a holiday when it is all over- he deserves it... might even have a special chocolate medal made for him.

Out of the frying pan into the fire, and the grass is always greener etc keep coming to my mind, I wonder why? ? ummm.

On a lighter note, I laughed like a drain at a report on the BBC news last night, when a hero incognito sneaked in and held up some anti Brexit banners behind an oblivious news reporter! God bless him.

'Talk about how the WTO frightens you'

did you watch/listen to the ex Boss of WTO? He is the one warning us, and telling us we should be afraid- and he explains very clearly why.

Will the USA be able to supply us with the shortfall of doctors and nurses that Brexit has created?

Um....Nonnie - we are not JOINING the USA, nor are we joining, Japan, or China, or Australia...

We are leaving a political trading bloc, the EU.

We already trade with many countries in the world and our trade deals with the USA may become bigger and more profitable when we are able to deal globally rather than within the confines of the EU. Why see the USA as a threat? It's no bigger a threat than Brussels.

Many of us see new trade deals as an exciting opportunity rather than a scary prospect. Anyone would think we are swapping the EU and becoming incorporated into the USA. (That's what the remainer doom mongers want us to believe.)

It is quite laughable that this is the level of scaremongering.

Talk about how the WTO frightens you, because through that organisation we will trade with the USA AND other countries, including EU ones.

It is not a case of the USA becoming our new home. It's a case of leaving our Brussels base for a whole new world of trading.

JenniferE have you heard the expression 'History is the best indicator of the future'?

Putting us in a weak bargaining position has to be bad whatever country we are negotiating with. The US would be able to insist on whatever it likes because we would not have any choice. At least the EU is significantly bigger and would have a corner to fight, we wouldn't.