Extraordinary Views of Conservative Party Members

It would be interesting to see the difference a change of Labour leader would make to the percentages. Presumably they are happy to have a Labour Government as long as JC is not in charge.
We are also dealing with people who like to get their own way.

The SNP wants the break-up of the UK too.
Sturgeon would want that regardless of the result of the EU referendum.

100,000 people - apparently the number of members of the Conservative Party has been something to be sneered at on other threads, so don't worry too much varian.
Not worth getting your knickers in another twist.

These are the people who will choose the next Tory leader and, presumably, Prime Minister.

There are two tedious clichés that get exchanged in the Brexit debate. The first is that “nobody voted to be poorer”, and the second is that “Leave voters knew what they voted for”. There are a variety of problems with the “no-one voted to be poorer” line. The first is that, of course, people vote to be worse off all the time. Some people earning in excess of £70,000 voted in 2017 for a Labour party pledging to put their taxes up. People in receipt of in-work benefits voted in 2015 for a Conservative Party promising to cut them. The second is that most people who voted to leave did not believe they were voting to make themselves poorer, and still don’t. The Conservatives’ 2015 election victory is instructive here: people happily voted for welfare cuts in 2015 and then very rapidly turned against the idea when George Osborne attempted to take away their welfare. The poll tax, which ended Margaret Thatcher’s premiership was written in black and white in the 1987 manifesto and was used as a talking point to excoriate the wastefulness of leftwing councils.

The problem with the “Leave voters knew what they voted for” line is essentially the same: history is littered with people voting for things that they like in theory, or, or don’t believe, or haven’t really understood and then opposing them when they are presented with the reality.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/06/new-poll-conservative-members-shows-they-arent-committed-brexit-you-think

Very interesting post Varian. Can't quite believe the unionist party would be so happy about losing Scotland and Northern Ireland, but Brexit has done strange things to people. From a northern point of view, it would be lovely to achieve a friendly, co-operative independence (a la Canada) which worked for all of us.

I can but dream.

Meanwhile in the real world, I was pretty annoyed at Scotland being ignored in last night's leaders' debate. Granted, the Glasgow climate strike teenager was articulate and strong, but I think she could have been selected from any part of Britain.

It would have been nice to hear a challenge during the debate over the issues covered in your OP Varian, but as we saw none of that parcel of rogues was bothered about schools, hospitals or foodbanks, I doubt they'd have answered well on Scotland.

Yes, a really interesting post, varian. I wonder if voting is based on rational interests (i.e., people work out the impact of policies and always vote in their own financial interests).

I suspect not. In part, because working out the implications of manifesto claims (I hesitate to call them promises) for an individual is next to impossible. And with the huge scepticism over expertise, it might be that people don't trust economic analysis of what a particular Tory or Labour policy is likely to mean for people in different income brackets.

Brexit seemed to be based on emotion, rather than anything else - all that stuff about control, and sovereignty and the language used in the media - enemies of the people, traitors etc - and the finger pointing at the chosen scapegoats - immigrants, primarily. It seemed like a surge of anger against the status quo (and establishment elitist Farage picked that up, with his own finger pointing at "the establishment" - as if he wasn't part of it!). The populism seems to be about winning at any cost, rather than being based on anything rational.

I seem to recall that an interesting exercise was carried out at the time of the 2017 GE in which people were asked what they thought of a number of social policies, such as more funding for the NHS. Most respondents agreed that they would be a good thing, but, when they were told that they were points from the Labour Manifesto, said that they would never vote Labour... not sure how they thought that the policies they liked could be implemented..

*so don't worry too much varian.
Not worth getting your knickers in another twist*

Exactly, Callistemon

You copy and paste a big chunk from a Remainer rag and treat it as gospel. Not convincing.

51 per cent – thought Labour taking power would be a bridge too far.

Well, they failed to capitalise on the last election, they lost that.

I'd say they'll only ever become government because of the pig's ear that is Brexit. Labour helped to ensure the PM couldn't deliver it, along with Remainer MPs from other parties. It didn't seem to matter that northern working class voters usually go for Labour. Most of their traditional support voted Leave too, so they were ignored, overlooked, dismissed.

People don't forget. This is just where the LibDem party will gain. Labour has shot itself in the foot.

Yougov polls are properly conducted and pretty accurate and the Independent is not a "Remainers rag". Analysis of newspaper bias three years ago showed the Independent and the "i" to be unbiased.

It is a failure of the right to dismiss facts and reports they dislike as "fake news". Trump supporters, Farage supporters and Tory leavers do it all the time.

Oh stop being so petty regarding anyone who doesn't support Leave or the left varian You GOV often gets it wrong - and has been accused of bias.

Despite sophisticated methodology, the main drawback faced by YouGov and other UK pollsters is their recruitment strategy: pollsters generally recruit potential respondents via self-selected internet panels. The American Association of Public Opinion Research cautions that pollsters should avoid gathering panels like this because they can be unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole. The British Polling Council’s inquiry into the industry’s 2015 failings raised similar concerns

Sorry the above from theconversation.com/its-sophisticated-but-can-you-believe-yougovs-startling-election-prediction-78701

I truly despair when I read some of the posts on GN about Brexit, we are now in the dreadful position of 100,00 home counties, white, middle class, middle aged+ people making a crucial decision that will affect all of us, and to my opinion, not for the better. I sat and watched last night's debate, and the one previously on Ch4 and not once did any of the candidates mention the majority of the population who did not vote for this. Yes, yes, yes, I can anticipate the spluttering replies from Brexiteers on here, but 17.4m of 66m is not a majority. I feel completely disenfranchised, as if my views do not matter as these despicable, grasping candidates all try to get the top job to promote their own careers and save the Tory party from the destruction Cameron brought upon it. So, this poll showing that the selfish bas***ds are prepared to sacrifice the union, the economy, everything apart from losing power to Corbyn is frightening. So much for the democracy and taking back control that all the Brexit supporters thought they were voting for; all you were voting for was saving the Tory party from the twin enemies of Farage and Corbyn, but then again, you knew that didn't you, as you keep assuring the rest of us?

Gill ?good post

If there is another referendum I hope it will only be valid if 75% of the eligible people vote.

agreed grannysyb as it should have been in the first place

as these despicable, grasping candidates all try to get the top job to promote their own careers and save the Tory party from the destruction Cameron brought upon it

Don't many of us feel that becoming Prime Minister right now, and having to take up the reins May has dropped, regarding EU negotiations, is the kiss of death to a political career?

May's premiership was focused on Brexit and lost because of Brexit. Unless we leave the EU on Oct 31st the next leader of the party is doomed too. The Conservative party will be toast as well, imo.

It is a blessing in disguise to the political ambition of Corbyn - and maybe Cable's replacement too.

Well said, GillT57.

You have to laugh. All the usual suspects in an echo chamber.
I wonder why they chirp mindless repetitions of the same phrases back and forth and it's amazing that many of the numbers they quote are quite ridiculous but massaged to suit the narrative.
Still...fancy having your conversations on a loop.
How utterly boring.

GillT57 I agree with everything you say!

I agree with you, too, GillT57.

It’s amazing how some posters on GN are complaining about how Conservative MP’s and then members choose a new leader/PM.
It’s always been done this way, where were the howls of protest before now?

Agreed i never concerned myself with the election of Tory party leaders in the past lemon but then again I have never had to watch them vying for who is the most likely to deliver Brexit, without any due consideration for the huge number of people who either did not vote for brexit or voted against it.

Same in the lsbour party lemon

Due consideration?
Parliament agreed to implement the results ( leaving the EU) further agreed to implement article 50 to get the process under way, and further....put leaving the EU into their manifestos.
If anyone could not vote for it ( under age etc) or voted against it, how can due consideration be given, we either leave or we don’t.