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Do you think Brexit is finally about to happen?

(52 Posts)
Urmstongran Fri 28-Jun-19 11:05:40

3 long years on from the referendum and Boris about to enter No. 10

For now he is pouring cold water on a no-deal, giving it odds of a “million to one against”.

But with his deadline set, and an article of faith for his ministers, those odds are going to shorten fast from the moment he enters Downing Street.

Yet Dominic Grieve has unveiled an incendiary proposal to stop key Whitehall departments from being able to spend any money in the event of a no deal. His plan does not stop it happening though, merely making sure it is as calamitous as possible – in the hope that the Prime Minister would shy away from it.

If selected for a vote, the plan is unlikely to get far in Parliament.

Mr Grieve’s fellow Remainers acknowledge that they are short on ways to stop a no deal, with Antoinette Sandbach confessing on Politics Live today that it was “not clear” how MPs could do it but hoping that "some procedural way” would turn up.

I can’t make out if we’re about to leave the EU or will it get stopped?

GillT57 Mon 01-Jul-19 18:55:05

Exactly. The money invested in growing economies, economies from countries that have recently got out from under the grip of the old USSR for example, is not wasted money. It is helping countries to develop, to build infrastructure, to educate their own workforce. It is ironic that the same people who moan about economic migrants are often the same people ( or newspaper editors) who complain about money being spent to help the new economies to grow. Further examples of the twilight zone of public awareness and politics that we are in at present.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 18:39:29

It isn’t entirely altruistic maize it also means that as these economies grow it builds a bigger market for out businesses. Obvious really.

You are right in what you say.

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 18:35:25

I do not grumble that others receive more than they contribute

As I understand it, poorer countries in the EU receive money to help them to develop their economies. In other quarters it would probably be known as 'investment'. We seem to be pretty pleased when other countries invest in the UK and help to develop our economy. EU member states contribute a fixed percentage of their GDP to the EU budget; as their economies grow their contributions will increase and their increased purchasing power will increase the other member states' ability to trade with them profitably. It's meant to work to the advantage of both the richer and the poorer member states.

I can see logic in this. If I'm missing something do let me know.

I feel that there's an inherent small mindedness in people resenting the fact that a tiny percentage of the UK budget (less than 2%) goes, in part, to helping other member states develop their economies.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 18:04:32

woodmouse what value would you put on the access our businesses have to a huge market?

GillT57 Mon 01-Jul-19 18:04:23

Woodmouse, most of the people I have spoken to when visiting Europe think we are absolutely bonkers to be thinking about leaving the EU, as do the many US citizens we spoke to on holiday earlier this year. In fact, I was embarassed as I tried to explain to people. It sounded like the absolute madness it is. As for other countries contributing less than we do; well, it doesn't bother me, anymore than it bothers me if someone has critical health conditions that require lengthy and expensive treatment whereas I am fortunate enough to enjoy good health so far, I do not grumble that others receive more than they contribute

WOODMOUSE49 Mon 01-Jul-19 17:51:09

Some have mentioned that other countries support the EU. That doesn't surprise me at all when you look at how much those countries contribute compared to how much they receive.

jura2 Mon 01-Jul-19 17:38:46

and yet - I am pretty sure they will be the ones who will be complaining bitterly. Statistically, leavers are much more likely to be severely affected by No Deal.

BTW Geoff Boycott, you were born in 1940. so NO, you didn't fight in two world wars. OH was a big admirer, and he is very calm and never swears (unlike moi) - and yet when he heard Geoff B deliver is ridiculous speech the other day, he turn round and shouted 'TWIT' - well with a wovel change- I nearly fell of my chair. Good man (my OH)

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 17:17:21

It is obvious that no leaver is prepared to own Brexit. They haven’t the courage nor honesty.

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 17:12:02

Anyone any thoughts about the business woman who was complaining on the radio? She voted leave and now wants help to cope with it

I have thoughts, nonnie, but they're unprintable grin
When are these stupid, stupid people going to face up to what they voted for?

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 17:09:10

Maizie is the latest promise just to replace the EU money then?

I don't know why this is being billed as 'the latest promise'. Michael Gove made such a promise a couple of years ago when he was Environment minister. I suppose the media have short memories.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 17:09:09

The rhetoric pre-referendum about our fisherman and their gain post Brexit doesn’t sit well with the assurances now being given that they will need and get support post Brexit.

I’m sure many voted leave because if the lies told.

Nonnie Mon 01-Jul-19 16:51:32

Well said Suzie. Why isn't that all blindingly obvious to everyone? I have to say that friends who live in EU countries have either been assured they will be fine or have taken out citizenship, they don't want to come back. Portugal has taken out paid advertising to tell Brits that we are welcome!

suzied Mon 01-Jul-19 16:44:45

I spend a lot of time with family in Italy and Ireland, and in both there is plenty of support for the EU. No-one is envious of the political and economic chaos in the UK! The EU seem far from the verge of collapse as leavers believe - they've just signed further big trade treaties. And if leavers really believed the EU was in imminent collapse, why bother with all the expense and upheaval and divisions of Brexit if you think its all about to disband anyway? My Italian relatives are pleased that they have Brussels as protection against the worst of the right wing populist coalition ( even they want to stay within the EU).

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 16:40:52

How is it all going to be financed? The two idiots are promising the earth and have been warned that they are in la la land. I think we are going through a time of madness.

Nonnie Mon 01-Jul-19 16:34:29

Thanks for the replies.

Maizie is the latest promise just to replace the EU money then? That hasn't been clear on the BBC news.

Prior to the referendum we were doing a lot of motorway driving and saw a lot of posters about farmers wanting to leave and I saw that too on the TV. Perhaps it was just bias at the time but I have since seen farmers interviewed who said they voted to leave and are now worried about the outcome.

Anyone any thoughts about the business woman who was complaining on the radio? She voted leave and now wants help to cope with it.

Also what about the ferries?

varian Mon 01-Jul-19 16:29:40

The farmers we know had the good sense to vote Remain.

Minette Batters, President of the National Farmers Union has described a no-deal brexit as "Armageddon"

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 15:41:08

P.S None of the farmers I know voted Leave; they were horrified by the result of the referendum... Still are...

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 15:39:51

I think that most of the agricultural industry voted to leave but have now been told they will get financial help.

The agricultural industry has always had financial help by way of the EU subsidies to farmers. Despite lots of Leavers' indignation about the large sums that big landowners get from the EU (indignation despite the fact that they have absolutely no idea if the EU money is or isn't used to support the landowners' agricultural businesses) it is a fact that most farming enterprises would not be able to survive without the EU money. They were promised money very early on to compensate for the loss of EU subsidy.

Businesses weren't...

jura2 Mon 01-Jul-19 15:19:09

Excellent questions to which I do not have the answers- as I don't understand either. Those who are stupid are those who say they do understand fully and already did at the time of the vote sad

Nonnie Mon 01-Jul-19 13:50:18

Two things I don't understand so would appreciate any help please.

Heard on the World at One a woman who had voted Leave and now wants assurances that the government will supply financially assistance to her business in the case of a no deal Brexit. Why is that? I think that most of the agricultural industry voted to leave but have now been told they will get financial help. I don't understand how voting to be worse off should be rewarded so must be missing something.

I understand that the government is again seeking freight contracts in case of a no deal Brexit. I get that we will need the extra capacity but don't understand why the carriers who will benefit from the extra business should be funded by us? Is it because they have to make resources available whether or not they will be used? Do we know what they spent the money on last time? Did they spend any money?

I am quite prepared to be told I'm stupid because I don't understand.

Nonnie Mon 01-Jul-19 12:56:06

CarlyD7 Sun 30-Jun-19 21:12:34 I agree but don't know about Malta and I would go further, they simply cannot understand why we would want to leave. On our holiday we met many people from outside the EU who were totally puzzled about Brexit too.

White if we do leave they will blame all the economic ills on anything but Brexit! I'm surprised they haven't blamed the EU for having all the sunshine and keeping it from us grin

Jane43 I wish more people had given the decision as much thought as you and had voted for the good of their country and not on their gut feelings.

Perhaps we need to remember that the campaigning is targeting only Conservative party members and not the public. Imo they will say whatever they need to in order to get the job but will have to modify it when PM.

I cannot see how they can get anything agreed in Parliament so will either have to prorogue or go back to the country. I don't see what could possibly be wrong with asking the electorate because that would confirm what we really want. If it is still leave then we can go with no deal. I think it is the only way out of the impasse and that the country cannot heal any other way.

EllanVannin Mon 01-Jul-19 12:16:50

My final words------Lord help us !

Johno Mon 01-Jul-19 12:06:39

This whole Johnson debacle is set for making sure we remain in EU and by remain, I mean anything short of a complete no deal exit is to remain. Johnson is not for a no deal Brexit he will not honour the referendum result. Farage will also turn and stitch us up.

lemongrove Mon 01-Jul-19 12:02:52

MaizieD.... you often don’t read either the OP of the thread or the actual poster ‘s comments correctly.
The OP asked if we thought Brexit would now happen or be stopped.
I gave my answer to that clearly enough.
My stance on leaving the EU is exactly the same as it always was btw.However, the politicians have made a balls up of the negotiations and also in Parliament trying to scupper things.
Will things change now? The answer has to be who knows, as I stated.

Jane43 Mon 01-Jul-19 11:36:19

I do think it will happen and the phrase ‘Be careful what you wish for’ comes to mind. I completely agree that a referendum is an advisory and the decision we were asked to make was way too complex. We did vote because we felt it was our duty but we had many long discussions about which way we should vote, there was no point in one of us voting leave and the other remain. In the end we decided to vote remain because we felt we should vote for what we felt would benefit the younger generation best and that more opportunities would be theirs if we stayed in Europe.

It is very sad how it has divided the country, even some families.