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Do you think Brexit is finally about to happen?

(51 Posts)
Urmstongran Fri 28-Jun-19 11:05:40

3 long years on from the referendum and Boris about to enter No. 10

For now he is pouring cold water on a no-deal, giving it odds of a “million to one against”.

But with his deadline set, and an article of faith for his ministers, those odds are going to shorten fast from the moment he enters Downing Street.

Yet Dominic Grieve has unveiled an incendiary proposal to stop key Whitehall departments from being able to spend any money in the event of a no deal. His plan does not stop it happening though, merely making sure it is as calamitous as possible – in the hope that the Prime Minister would shy away from it.

If selected for a vote, the plan is unlikely to get far in Parliament.

Mr Grieve’s fellow Remainers acknowledge that they are short on ways to stop a no deal, with Antoinette Sandbach confessing on Politics Live today that it was “not clear” how MPs could do it but hoping that "some procedural way” would turn up.

I can’t make out if we’re about to leave the EU or will it get stopped?

Calendargirl Fri 28-Jun-19 11:10:56

If anything wants stopping, it’s Dominic Grieve’s mouth!🤐

Scribbles Fri 28-Jun-19 11:13:55

I think it will be stopped, Urmstongran. The remainers will tangle up every proposal for getting out in "procedural" red tape until the PM (whoever that is) will have no alternative but to repeal article 50 .

Alima Fri 28-Jun-19 11:43:39

Do you mean happen in 4 months time? Hope so but Remainers are trying every trick in the book to thwart the democratic process. Think Boris has too much baggage and Jeremy Hunt is too wimpy.Try not to think about it too much, so much nastiness on both sides. If we don’t leave now I think the EU will implode anyway,

Firecracker123 Fri 28-Jun-19 12:29:37

I'm 100per cent sure we will leave on the 31st October 2019 with or without a deal (I think it will be no deal) if Boris is PM all his cabinet ministers will be pro brexit and with Nigel Farage and The Brexit Party now interviewing prospective candidates to stand in the next General election when that happens, the Conservatives know they have to deliver Brexit on that date or it will be the end for them.

Gonegirl Fri 28-Jun-19 12:40:25

A cold hand clutched my heart when I read this thread title. (sorry to be dramatic but it's true). Because yes, I think it is about to happen.

wicklowwinnie Fri 28-Jun-19 12:46:58

I agree with Alima. I think the EU has come to the end anyway. Other countries are waiting to get out!!

JenniferEccles Fri 28-Jun-19 13:08:44

It will be interesting to see what happens to the EU after we have left, please, please on October 31st.

When we were on holiday after the referendum I was really surprised to hear so many people from various European countries we visited on a cruise, saying just how envious of us they were, and that they hoped their governments would give them the opportunity to get out from a corrupt, failing EU too.

I guess it was always on the cards therefore, that the EU would make it as difficult for us as possible to make an example of us.

In the meantime of course, all we can do is wait and hope.

EllanVannin Fri 28-Jun-19 13:15:32

I rather think it will be a short-lived leadership whoever it might be and we'll be once again in limbo. Parties are so divided that I can't envisage any settlement either way.

jura2 Sun 30-Jun-19 20:24:15

If Boris tries to by-pass Parliament, he will have a Revolution on his hands. From MPs and from those who believe in our Sovereign Parliament and Laws- and not dictatorship.

Kandinsky Sun 30-Jun-19 20:58:31

Yes. It will 100% happen.

GrannyGravy13 Sun 30-Jun-19 21:03:06

If Boris/Jeremy do not manage to get UK out of the EU on 31/10/19 I fear our next Prime Minister will be Nigel Farage!

CarlyD7 Sun 30-Jun-19 21:07:35

Sorry but I don't think that other countries are waiting to get out of the EU - why would they want to leave the biggest and most powerful trading bloc in the world (the one that's made the UK the 6th richest economy in the world?) It's only the far right parties that are driving that agenda. Yes, I think we are about to leave - not for the benefit of the UK, but for the survival of the Tory Party (which is not the same thing). I do hope that the EU survives - otherwise Putin will get what he wants and there will be no-one powerful enough to keep his ambitions for Europe in check (we can forget about the USA with his poodle Trump in charge).

CarlyD7 Sun 30-Jun-19 21:12:34

We know lots of people who live all over Europe - France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Malta, The Netherlands - all of them are praying for the survival of the EU. Yes it needs reform but like a faltering marriage, it can be saved, and we're better off staying in it, and working to change it. Heading straight for divorce is throwing out "the baby with the bathwater".

jura2 Sun 30-Jun-19 21:30:04

Scary times indeed.

I hope the alternative will be true- that Corbyn and Labour will unite with other remain parties and all those in the Conservative Party who know No Deal will be a disaster- to vote tactically. The Leave vote will be split, as the Leave Tories will not dare ally with the extreme right.

lemongrove Sun 30-Jun-19 21:37:04

Who knows, or can possibly predict accurately after the balls up of the last few years?
Anything could happen!

Chewbacca Sun 30-Jun-19 21:38:42

Lemongrove got it in one!

Whitewavemark2 Mon 01-Jul-19 07:43:56

I see Timmermans is in the front runner for the replacement to Junker.

Timmerman is a very strong Anglophile. He is a notable critic of Johnson, so clearly extremely intelligent 🙂

varian Mon 01-Jul-19 07:54:26

You are right lemon, anything could happen. Only a fool would make predictions. I can't help noticing that the people who are 100% sure we are leaving on 31st October also told us we would leave on 29th March.

Sealover Mon 01-Jul-19 08:12:33

Well said CarlyD7. Surely it is better to build bridges and work together for the good for everyone? So much good has come from being in the EU, so much will be lost if we leave. A medic friend of mine is worried about shared medical research will come to an end etc etc.

jura2 Mon 01-Jul-19 08:36:29

Forces are out there pushing us towards divide - and the reson is simple 'divide the 'enemy' or in this case 'the strong competitor' and you can rule. Always been thus.

Trump, Putin, China, etc, do not want a strong, cohesive, very competitive Europe- for sure. Divide and rule ...

jura2 Mon 01-Jul-19 09:04:12

The very strong links between Boris and Bannon are very worrying indeed- and with Farage too, with Bannon as go-between.

MaizieD Mon 01-Jul-19 09:21:36

Who knows, or can possibly predict accurately after the balls up of the last few years?
Anything could happen!

Oh, come on, lemon. You Leavers knew with absolute confidence that the EU was a failing institution, that our grandchildren would be conscripted into an EU army, that we were going to to be obliged to joint the euro, that we were going to be obliged to become part of a federal europe and that the UK would flourish when clear of the shackles of the EU.

But now you tell us that accurate prediction is impossible.

Three years of political chaos (and the prospect of more to come) later you're in effect telling us that your vote was made on the result of a bit of crystal ball gazing and get touchy when Remainers suggest that it wasn't the brightest way to make a serious and far reaching decision. hmm

notentirelyallhere Mon 01-Jul-19 09:29:17

A referendum is not democracy. It's advisory. If we ran the country via referendum, we'd be living in a Fascist dictatorship which is what some want. Sadly I think we will commit economic suicide and leave the EU and the Polyannas will continue to blame the EU for the ensuing ills rather than the austerity policies of the Tories. Sheesh, who cares any longer, insanity rules, I'm off to my garden. Pity the young.

jura2 Mon 01-Jul-19 09:29:39

But kids and grand-kids losing their job will be worth it- surely, as Hunt says. Especially as they won't be able to 'do a Tebbit' and get on their bike/plane to go and look elsewhere where they are thriving, picking up all the lost business to UK.