The economy.

Tata Steel has just announced over 300 job losses in South Wales

Manufacturing industry in the U.K. fell to a 7 year low.

It is now in recession.

The question now is what is happening to the rest of the economy.

Just about every economic org is warning a No Deal #Brexit may cause a recession

When was the last time a recession made more funding available for public services?

twitter.com/thomasbrake?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

U.K. at the bottom of the G7 league table

The Resolution Foundation finds the magic money tree

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sajid-javid-spending-rules-boris-johnson-public-services-budget-brexit-a9086181.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwtajrBRBVEiwA8w2Q8F_J42_PBccc0CxAbHsx0OnIADVcKwMaaMZi7trsb0K6W3DFLJog8hoCqVMQAvD_BwE

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).

The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

If we leave the EU without a deal should we just forget about 46% of our exports and 54% or our imports?

Remember the the EU is the worlds' largest and most successful trading bloc in the world, currently comprising the UK and 27 other member countries.

In negotiations, size matters. A single "third country" as we would be outside of the EU, could never hope to get as good a deal as we presently have.

If we want to trade with the other EU countries at all, it would HAVE to be on their terms. We would have to comply with EU rules whilst having no say in them.

One of the most misleading mantras of the lying Leave campaign was "they need us more than we need them". Not true. They might sell more to us than we do to them, but not in percentage terms. UK trade only represents about 8% of their exports, as opposed to EU trade representing 46% of ours. Clearly a lot of leave voters never understood this and still don't.

Jura I only look at the direct exchange rates so, of course, we are both right. When I have to buy currency for holidays I shop carefully as there is a huge difference depending where you buy and even the Post Office has different rates for online and in branch.

Actually, depending where and how you buy- £ is below the Euro in practical terms.

Ruth Lea, a pro-Brexit economist, has been forced to backtrack on live television after claiming she “made up” figures while working at the treasury.

www.indy100.com/article/ruth-lea-bbc-news-treasury-economist-brexit-no-deal-video-9049216

so the Government does make up figures/forecasts- to put a positive spin on the effect of No Deal Brexit- and they have gagged many organisations from talking about such effects, and are refusing to publish their own forecasts- because they are so so dire.

Not quite jura but getting close. SJ blames it on the world economy but clearly the markets don't agree. Our US shares are getting more and more valuable but I would rather the UK economy was better for all.

Hurrah- we have finally joined the Euro - just what the Brexiters wanted after all

For the first time since 2012 the economy has shrunk smaller now than France Italy Japan and USA

twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1159829082994954240?s=20

Canada has already said it will wait until we have left because we will be so vulnerable they will get a great deal.

Brexiters are right when they say all these countries will want to deal with us but they don't realise what the terms will be.

In the Guardian an excellent article stating as it is

'UK too desperate to secure US trade deal, says Clinton's treasury secretary

Britain in weak negotiating position despite Trump’s warm words, says Larry Summers' - that is abundantly clear- same with the EU too.

Oh the hilarity

The possibility of food shortages has been mentioned which reminds me of a suggestion from celebrity farmer James Doherty that we should think about eating squirrels!

In that event supermarkets would have to point out that ‘this product may contain nuts’?

Anyone wish to comment on the WTO info?

It's Project Fear, innit, Nonnie?

varian & Woodmouse I wonder if your difference could be a misunderstanding. W mentions money 'direct' from the EU but I think the EU gives money which our government hands out. Not sure but could that be the difference?

Anyone wish to comment on the WTO info?

More leavers than Remainers in Cornwall have changed their mind and want the UK to stay in the EU, survey reveals......

The new Brexit survey shows 52% of Cornwall Live readers believe Britain will be better off economically inside Europe. As well as this, 54% said Britain should continue to be part of the Single Market.

www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/more-leavers-remainers-cornwall-changed-1485113

(WOODMOUSE's link)

varian

As before - and so you go on to prove you only comment on what you see a relevant point. You sway dramatically off the point of my comment. Why? You go onto quote me items that were in the Cornwall Live article that I gave you.

As I said and you didn't comment on, 4% of remainers have changed their minds.

A big part Cornish economy (as I have said before and I will say again) is fisheries and farming. It's our main industry:

Some figures for you: 2016 by the way.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is the largest industry overall in Cornwall with 4,280 businesses. Construction is the second largest with 3,050 businesses and third is the Professional, scientific & technical industry with 2,370 businesses followed closely by Accommodation and food services with 2,335 businesses.

I was criticising your sentence structure. Why put the two clauses/phrases together if you don't intend them to be linked!

My last comment varian. You'll be pleased to know. I doubt your reply to mine will be your last.

I don't spend all day on then net. I'm off to talk to someone face to face. My farmer neighbour needs help with the goats but we'll have a chat first and put the world to rights.

WOODMOUSE If I were to say "I have never met a stupid professor and all the professors I've met voted Remain" it would not follow that I was implying that all the professors who voted Leave are stupid. Simple logic - no such implication.

Your link is interesting, showing more Cornish Leave voters than Remain voters changing their minds. I suspect this may be particularly true in the fishing community who have now woken up to the fact that they were badly let down by the UK's representative on the EU Fishing Committee, Nigel Farage, who only attended one meeting out of a possible 42, and by the UK Government who allowed Fishing Quotas to be sold abroad, which other EU countries did not permit.

In 2014,Jonathan Lindsell, author of a report on industries benefit from the EU, told the Western Morning News:

“Cornwall is a major beneficiary of EU spending so if Britain were to leave then the Treasury would have to take great care in ensuring its local economy was not crippled as a result. Not only do Cornwall’s many farmers and fishermen benefit from the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy respectively, but the county receives tens of millions of pounds a year in structural and convergence funds to support local economic growth and communities."

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

varian. As expected, you veer from my comment. Please read it again.

I was talking about Cornish farmers not the whole of the UK. . Your quote is about farmers in UK. Please stick to what my comment was about. Cornwall has not received any direct money from the EU for farming.

All surveys are selective. The whole farming community in Cornwall can't be questioned. Fisheries and Farming are our biggest industries in Cornwall. Enough were surveyed to give as an accurate figure as possible.

Finding labour was, is and always will be a concern to Cornish Farmers. However, even though there was a shortage in 2016 this didn't affect the vote from the majority of farmers.

The way you worded your sentence was to imply that. I have never met a stupid farmer and I have never met a farmer who voted leave.

Perhaps you've looked at my last comment. Cornwall has some leavers and remainers changing their minds. Even though there are more of the former, it wouldn't make any difference to a new vote.

You might be interested to know how Cornwall has spent its EU money.
www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/more-leavers-remainers-cornwall-changed-1485113

WOODMOUSE I do not imply that 58% of farmers are stupid, just that I have never met a stupid farmer and as it happens, all the farmers who have told me how they voted, voted Remain. The figure of 58% farmers supporting brexit cam from a small self-selected sample in Farmer's Weekly, so may not be that accurate.

I am amazed that you claim "farming has not received any EU money," Try checking the facts-

"Finding European labour may be the most pressing concern for British farming, but it is not the only one. In 2015 UK farmers received almost €3.1bn in direct EU funding – according to the NFU – which they have asked the Treasury to ringfence. The yield from the Brexit harvest do not look to good for British farmers so far."

infacts.org/farmers-reap-harvest-voting-brexit/

Thanks, WM

2016 is 3 years and a lot of additional information ago. It would be interesting to know a more up to date figure.

MaizeD

2016 at the time of the referendum. I should think the % surprises some knowing that Cornish farmers and fishermen benefit from the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy.

AWAY FROM FARMING:
Aside - Cornwall Live have reported that "Leave voters were more likely to say they would not vote in the same way now, with one in 15 Leave voters saying they'd act differently (7%) compared to one in 28 Remain voters (4%)."

No Sensible person would have voted Leave IMHO.

The EU and UK are One and should stay that way !