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If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK

(169 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:00:39

An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."

It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.

It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.

"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."

They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.

"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."

The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.

"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."

There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4

GrannyGravy13 Wed 07-Aug-19 09:38:43

Feel sorry for the French as according to some TV chefs over half of their moules come from the UK!!

Something else for the gillet jeunes to
protest about, not that these protests are being shown on MSM!!

Pantglas1 Wed 07-Aug-19 09:18:06

Thank you Elegran - understood.

Elegran Wed 07-Aug-19 09:17:51

It is not just fruit and veg from the EU. Our imports from non-EU countries are currently under the trading rules negotiated with those countries when we were part of the EU trading group. So shipments from further away will be held up by paperwork too, and forming queues.

Elegran Wed 07-Aug-19 09:14:33

They will sell it once we have a trade agreement with them to, under whatever conditions are agreed. Those conditions will most likely be less good than those we had when the whole of Europe traded as one, and will probably result in higher prices. Until the agreement is made, the sales might not happen. If import into the country requires a lot more paperwork than currently (currently it is about nil) there could be delays at the ports - and if shipments arrive from many different countries, alll needing their paperwork checked, there could definitely WILL be delays, which could be disastrous for perishable goods.

Pantglas1 Wed 07-Aug-19 09:07:29

Can someone explain to me why we will have a shortage of fruit & veg I.e. EU growers WON’T sell their produce to UK after Brexit?

GracesGranMK3 Wed 07-Aug-19 09:05:44

Great post, Elegran, I did hear that piece on the radio.

However, I have a feeling that those who voted leave will not even read or listen to such comment. They will have their fingers in ears and going la, la, la.

They know they have no argument for doing this to the UK but just don't care. They feel disaffected and everyone else has to suffer for them feeling dissatisfied, disgruntled, discontented, frustrated, and fed up even though they are destroying our country in the process.

Elegran Wed 07-Aug-19 08:49:50

A US perspective from someone who knows all about international trade.:-

Larry Summers, a former US treasury secretary, , said on Tuesday that the US would agree only to a deal that weighed heavily in its favor.

^ "Britain has no leverage. Britain is desperate. Britain has nothing else. It needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain," he told the BBC Radio 4's "Today" program.^

"The last thing you do is quit a job before you look for your new one," he said.

^ "In the same way, establishing absolutely that as a matter of sacred principle you're leaving Europe has to be the worst way to give you leverage with any new potential partners."^

Summers added: "Britain has much less to give than Europe as a whole did, therefore less reason for the United States to make concessions. You make more concessions dealing with a wealthy man than you do dealing with a poor man." www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-us-will-exploit-uk-in-post-brexit-trade-talks

Those of us who have been saying this for THREE YEARS are not scaremongers or sore losers peeved at the "temerity" of Brexiteers for wishing to leave the EU, we are appalled by the irresponsibility. Would you throw up a steady job to take your children busking with a begging bowl outside the US embassy for a living?

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 21:45:46

Overthehills, I know (sigh). I try to remain rational and factual, but it's very trying.

I feel the same as you. When the result of the referendum was announced, I was disappointed, but I honestly thought I was missing something and there were good reasons people voted as they did and I accepted it.

Over the last three years, I really haven't seen/heard any compelling reasons and I've become increasingly frustrated and anxious about the future, especially for younger people. Even after 31 October, the country is going to take years to heal, because a really nasty underbelly has been revealed.

Overthehills Mon 05-Aug-19 21:36:13

I am really fed up with being called a “sore loser” and worse on Brexit threads. I voted to remain and when the result was to leave I was very disappointed not to mention worried. However - democracy dictates that I accepted the “will of the people” and accept it I did. At first. As time has gone on and the full implications of leaving without a deal became clearer I began to be very worried indeed. I read the political threads on GN every day but very rarely comment but I have been impressed by the clarity of the thinking of some posters and have learnt a lot from them. I have been equally unimpressed by quality of the argument from others. “I don't believe in it” equates to it doesn’t exist. A trace for AF can be done in my GP surgery equates to it can be done in any GP surgery. We survived rationing during WWII equates to we can survive anything. To all you remainers who are trying educate/change minds/inform, you are wasting your breath because even if all your “scaremongering” becomes reality they still won’t “believe in it”!!

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 19:21:50

Incidentally, regarding fish and chips during the war...

I was curious enough to look this up, because my grandfather was involved with requisitioning trawlers during WW2 and I know that many of the bigger boats weren't used for fishing.

This is what Hansard says:

"Fish was not rationed, partly because the Ministry of Food couldn't find an effective way to ration it, given the underlying principle they followed that rationed items would only be those of which they could guarantee constant supply, and supply was governed by the natural scarcity of how many fishermen were willing to put out to sea with submarines lurking under them at any given time. Consequently, there were always very long queues outside fishmongers."

The War Cabinet papers at the National Archives have a statistical summary of the war presented to the cabinet in 1944. It says the following about fishing:
During the war two-thirds of the deep-sea trawler fleet and nearly three-quarters of the steam-drifter fleet have been requisitioned for naval purposes, as well as many of the motor vessels engaged in inshore fishing. As a result the total landings of fish of British taking on an average throughout the war has amounted to less than one-third of what it was in 1938.

Landings of Fish of British taking
Year - Thousand cwts*
1938 - 20,907
1939 - 15,687
1940 - 6,268
1941 - 4,904
1942 - 6,091
1943 - 6,175

So what that has to do with Brexit, I don't really know. However, it would appear from the facts that fish and chips weren't universally available during WW2. The British obviously weren't gorging themselves on fish and chips (chips maybe!)

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 19:05:13

What "charmers" there are posting on here.

jura2 Mon 05-Aug-19 18:42:37

Varian- you just beat me to it - indeed. Very very silly, worse, nonsensical.

varian Mon 05-Aug-19 18:36:17

EllanVannin has posted "I don't believe in Climate change. Catastrophes are usually man-made. Fortunately I'm not in the habit of making myself look silly."

Unfortunately EllanVannin this post has made you look very silly.

If catastrophes are usually man-made, and the world has just exprierenced the hottest month on record, and climatologists worldwide are virtually unanimous in ascribing global warming to human activity, how can you possibly say you don't believe in climate change without looking very silly indeed?

Elegran Mon 05-Aug-19 18:31:36

"We can import food from America, Australia, New Zealand. . " Not until we have the trade agreements in place. The ones with tghe US are going to be heavily weighted in favour of them, not us.

""Even better we can grow our own. Make Britain self sufficient . . " I has been said elsewhere, and is a fact of life, that Britain does NOT have the capacity to grow or produce enough food to feed the population. We were not self-sufficient when the population was 44,320,000 (1942) , so how do you suggest we become so when the population is 66,993,715 (as of Sunday, August 4, 2019) - half as many again? How will you convince the entire population to change their eating habits radically overnight? How will farmers change their crops etc overnight? It takes 3 years from conception to crop - what do we eat in the meantime, and will everyone want to eat the crops when they do mature? Mangel wurzels, anyone?

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 18:06:30

So would you have voted for what we actually went through evansgg just for the hell of it? There were good reasons during the war and even then people did wonder if it was worth it. This is not a war-time situation however much you like playing that it is. Where does calling those who try to listen to the facts from acceptable sources "gloom-mongers" get us? It just means people think even less of your ability to inform and tell us just why the balance to leave outweighs the problems we will face. Pretty much for every person who voted leave there is another who didn't and we have a right to ask you to justify what you are doing to us.

I totally appreciate that people have a different perspective on this but so many of the Brexiters seem to have a different perspective because they turn their back and chose not to become informed. That I don't understand.

WOODMOUSE49 Mon 05-Aug-19 18:02:56

growstuff
Lack off can mean without

I wasn't advocating that fish and chips were the ideal diet. The point I was making that during World War II, ministers bent over backwards to make sure fish and chips were one of the few foods that were never rationed. That was a quote not made up by me. Fish and chips were two of the few foods not subject to rationing because the government feared the dish was so embedded in the nation's culture that any limit would damage morale.

Every time I quote from research I've found, I'm being told it's not accurate yet I'm expected to believe research you've done.

I'm with evansgg too.

I do hope Day6 comments are read by all who've contributed here. growstuff and all.

I'll try to keep to my promise to myself this time. I will not comment on any postings that make reference to Brexit. grin

Riverwalk Mon 05-Aug-19 17:36:14

No one knows what will happen it is all conjecture

Precisely, Felice, and that's the problem!

We are about to leave, likely without a deal, the EU which is the world’s largest trading bloc, the second largest economy after the USA, is right on our doorstep and, to quote you 'no one knows what will happen'.

Isn't that just a titchy bit worrying?

jura2 Mon 05-Aug-19 17:34:24

lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalala

Day6 Mon 05-Aug-19 17:30:21

We would be murdered in our beds, as there was no way Britain would stop an invasion. We would starve as we couldn't import fruit. The only bread would be black etc.etc. all supposition , none of this happened.

Thank you evansgg

Let's face it, the Remainer Governor of the Bank of England depicted deep gloom and misery if we rejected the EU, even before the referendum result. He went on afterwards about economic disaster and got that wrong too! grin

The sore losers just have to keep on telling us how we are going to suffer for having the temerity to want to get out of the EU.

Stay off a thread for a while and watch them get hysterical together. It's interesting.

We are waiting for the prediction of a zombie apocalypse because we voted Leave. We haven't had that one yet, but it can't be far off.

I think most of us are of the 'wait and see' variety. We are preparing for a No Deal Brexit and that has to be good news.

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 17:25:25

I knew it. Climate change denial as well, that figures.

Day6 Mon 05-Aug-19 17:19:10

I think I will cross bridges when I come to them rather than listen to pathetic scaremongering which frightens the vulnerable/gullible.

Remainers seem to delight in it. hmm

evansgg Mon 05-Aug-19 17:18:58

I was 6 when the war started and I remember listening to family discuss what was going to happen. We would be murdered in our beds, as there was no way Britain would stop an invasion. We would starve as we couldn't import fruit. The only bread would be black etc.etc. all supposition , none of this happened.
We can import food from America, Australia, New Zealand. Even better we can grow our own. Make Britain self sufficient and don't believe the doom mongers

Day6 Mon 05-Aug-19 17:16:40

From the NHS site

www.england.nhs.uk/eu-exit/medicines/medicines-faq/#q6

Will I still be able to get my prescription medicines and medical products?

"Yes. The Government is working closely with the NHS and suppliers to make sure medicines and medical products continue to be available in all scenarios. Occasionally, however, the NHS does experience temporary shortages of specific medicines. If this happens, you will be prescribed the best alternative to your usual medication as is normal. This will ensure that your treatment continues as normal.

And

What is being done to make sure medicines and medical products continue to be available?

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has been working closely with the NHS, pharmaceutical companies, suppliers of medical devices, and supply chains to make sure medicines and medical products continue to be available in the event of a no deal EU exit.

Since 2018, DHSC has been working with all pharmaceutical companies that supply prescription-only medicines and pharmacy medicines to the UK that come from, or through, the EU or European Economic Area (EEA). DHSC has been asking companies to ensure they have extra stocks available in the UK by 12 April 2019.

Where these medicines have a short shelf life, DHSC has asked companies to ensure that they can fly these medicines in from the EU in the event of no deal. The NHS Supply Chain organisation is holding extra stocks of medical products.

To ensure that there will be enough space available for extra stocks of medicines and medical products, the Government has secured extra warehouse space including refrigerated and controlled drug storage that companies can use to store products.

The Government has also put in place extra shipping for suppliers to use on a variety of routes to ease pressure on the short straits crossings to Dover and Folkestone. This includes capacity on ferries to Poole, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Immingham and Felixstowe. The Government has agreed that medicines and medical products will be prioritised on these alternative routes.

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 17:03:35

Good grief! Who'd have thought it? The Lancet knows nothing about heart disease. Why on earth do we waste so much money on medical training when somebody on Gransnet knows better, even though she hardly ever goes to a GP surgery and doesn't actually know what they do there.

Funny old world we live in!

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 17:00:38

Your GP is lying to you, Day6. Maybe he/she doesn't want to raise your blood pressure.

One of my best friends is a GP and they're are extremely worried about the supply of certain drugs. They can't stockpile themselves and the Clinical Commissioning Group won't allow them to oversubscribe to cover shortfalls.

There are already non-Brexit related supply problems and it's already a nightmare.