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If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK

(168 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:00:39

An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."

It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.

It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.

"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."

They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.

"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."

The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.

"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."

There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here:

jura2 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:02:28

food, medication/drugs and also surgical equipment for operations, prostheses, etc.

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:09:10

It is a long paper Jura but worth reading.

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:16:54

It was the none health direct items that caught my eye. "between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030"^ for instance which came from modeling how a lack of fresh food might affect the population.

In the paper, it also talks about concerns that legislation, brought in under the UE, could be rolled back. They cited egislation we currently have on "air pollution, workplace health and safety, and trade within the single market in substances posing a risk to health, such as tobacco"

The next sub-heading was Medical products, vaccines, and technology and I hadn't quoted or mentioned that for fear of being way too long.

Opal Mon 05-Aug-19 12:26:29

Oh FFS, I've seen it all now. Between 6000 and 23000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030. Because NONE of those deaths might have happened anyway?? Seriously?? Scaremongering has finally hit the bottom of the barrel.

Opal Mon 05-Aug-19 12:28:41

Are we seriously going to blame all deaths for the next 50 years on Brexit????????

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:37:37

Oh well, it only took 10 minutes for the Pollyanna Brexit party members to jump in and deliberately misunderstand and misrepresent the report. Getting better

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 12:53:14

No, that's why the report mentions EXCESS deaths. I'm sure I don't need to explain what "excess" means.

Where does it mention anything about the next 50 years?

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:03:17

Well it just means that we'll have to look after ourselves that bit more to make sure that no illness befalls us because it looks like nobody else will bother. Then again----
I hate being reliant on anything or anybody anyway at the best of times--------just carry on as you were it shouldn't make much, if any difference to most of us.

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:06:24

Tell that to diabetics Ellenvannin when they can't get sufficient insulin, or tell cancer patients when they can't get the drugs and diagnostics they need, I am sure they will be delighted to know that they should have looked after themselves better.

Opal Mon 05-Aug-19 13:10:55

And the scaremongering continues ……….
Lots of love from Pollyanna grin

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:12:37

GillT57 I have to have warfarin, have looked after myself all my life and still have to do so, dietwise, or my INR levels alter, putting me at risk. I'm high-risk anyway but have to get on with it !

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 13:14:39

My userID for this site maybe gives a clue that I do actually grow many of my own vegetables (the ones left by the pesky caterpillars). I'm more or less self-sufficient during a few months of the year, but I live on my own, don't have a full-time job and I do have a small garden. Most people don't have the time or resources to do what I do, so they're going to have to pay more for imported fruit and veg. Local councils are building over allotments and, anyway, growing one's own isn't very efficient.

People's budgets are already stretched, so it's not unreasonable to expect that they'll spend less on fruit and veg, which calorie for calorie are more expensive than less nutritious food such as pastry and cereals.

So, yes, it's not unreasonable to assume that, on average, people will have less healthy diets and more could die.

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 13:16:59

No amount of looking after oneself is going to help an insulin-dependent diabetic.

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:17:30

Medication stocks are high and won't be affected.
I also have medication for stage 3 kidney failure, next stage being dialysis. Am I worried ? No !

jura2 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:18:09

EllanV - your comments are so so callous and selfish.

Tell that to the Grans who have granchildren who need drugs and special care to survive. I was told I was insensitive when I mentionned the risks re medical supplies and isotopes a long time ago- when I would have thought those affected would be the ones who would want to know.

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:19:32

Ok Opal you carry on with your head in the sand.

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:21:39

Callous and selfish maybe, but there are hundreds like me who just have to get on with it ! We're not all pampered snowflakes !

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 13:22:32

If medication stocks are high, why is the government highlighting that there could be an issue and spending money on trying to mitigate problems?

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 13:23:09

No maybe about it :-(

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:24:06

Carry on with your herd mentality !

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 13:25:12

I gather you weren't around when food was rationed.

jura2 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:25:14

So grandchildren who need medical treatment for severe life-threatening conditions are just 'pampered snowflakes' - you are beyond the beyond here!

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:29:03

Of course I wasn't Ellenvannin what a silly comment.

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 13:29:08

Why would anybody in their right mind choose to be subjected to food rationing?

What is it about WW2 which seems so attractive to some people?