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If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK

(169 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:00:39

An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."

It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.

It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.

"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."

They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.

"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."

The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.

"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."

There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 16:55:53

Actually, the country did run short of plenty of foods during WW2. Rationing wasn't just "in case".

I don't think chips and beer is a very healthy diet.

There are plenty of reasons why the UK imports food, the main one being that it's more efficient to grow some foods (especially fruit and veg) in warmer countries, such as Spain.

Secondly, the UK just doesn't have the land to produce food. We make more money out of building on our land and manufacturing stuff or providing financial services.

Thirdly, the UK is a relatively high-wage economy and we don't have people who are prepared to work in cabbage fields.

There are other reasons too.

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 16:47:23

Presumably you expect the hospital staff to know what they're talking about.

(Just deleted my comment because I really don't believe you're for real, EV.)

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 16:37:45

I do not question my GP as I hardly visit the surgery.
If I have a problem I contact the hospital directly.
I don't believe in Climate change. Catastrophes are usually man-made.
Fortunately I'm not in the habit of making myself look silly.

Lastly---I never always believe what others say as I have a mind of my own and more than capable of working things out for myself.

WOODMOUSE49 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:32:05

growstuff I was quoting from NHS site. I did say lack of fresh food - I took to mean no fresh food blush The point I made as that cv disease can be as a result of that sort of diet.

It was the gov decision at the time WW2 to impose rationing incase we ran short of food. Fish and chips and beer weren't rationed.

GracesGranMK3 I can download the PDF but again it's time to read it. I'm interested but my outside work commitments demand my time at the moment. This is my afternoon tea break during a rain shower.

As a keen grower I've researched % of home grown produce.
First World War and Second World War, we produced only around 33% of our food. The recent high was 82% in the early 1980s. Currently it's 61%. Perhaps someone could post on here what they know about why it did drop to 61% and also why "someone" can't help that % increase.

felice Mon 05-Aug-19 16:29:37

Jabberwok, exactly, the salad producers here and in the Netherlands rely on the UK market I do know that there are a lot of negotiations going on to protect the markets, and the UKs food supply. Going both ways I hope, as the Belgians in particular love UK beef, and lamb. I bought a tray of Welsh lamb chops this afternoon in my local supermarket.
I'm off now, pub quiz tonight in the Irish Pub across the road, need to revise.

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:29:29

I am sorry to hear your diagnosis dragonflies. It must be very worrying.

No Brexiter would dare complain if they were in the same situation. Firstly the would not allow that the consultant knew more than them. Secondly, if they did not want to believe it to be true because it didn't suit them, they wouldn't. And thirdly, even if it had been wished upon them by the behaviour of others that would not be something to try and change, it would be the democratic right of those "others" to make life worse or even bring about the death of some so the could get their way however ignorant the chose to remain about it. And, of course, they would win brownie points for taking on the Blitz Spirit.

Day6 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:28:26

"And the scaremongering continues ………"

Doesn't it just Opal. hmm

I need a shed load of drugs every day, I have family members who have conditions needing special treatment.

We have all been assured by our GPs that the NHS has supplies and will NOT run out of drugs or specialist medication. All - four GPs - knocked this pathetic Remainer scare-mongering on its head. hmm

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 16:23:42

As for the bit in the Lancet re. atrial fibrillation, I beg to differ with what is said about the screening methods/detection as " limited because of cost and low yield ".

Not so. A trace can be carried out in a GP surgery and if found to be abnormal a letter of referral is sent to the cardiologist of your nearest hospital.
There are no limitations set for this type of screening. Medication such as anti-coagulants are a cheap and effective way of treating AF .

janipat Mon 05-Aug-19 16:20:33

GracesGranMK3 it's worse than plain ignorance, it's wilful ignorance that refuses to accept research from any source, no matter how informed that source is.

Jabberwok Mon 05-Aug-19 16:19:42

I wouldn't think that there is anyone under 90 who remembers food rationing with any clarity. I can remember (just) sweets being on ration, nothing else, and I'm 76!
I can't help but wonder what will happen to all the fruit and veg that will be ruined as it's not just us who would be affected! Will farmers on the continent find alternative outlet? or will they just sit back and watch their businesses fail without a murmur? My experience of french farmers in full flow the answer would seem to be not!! I would guess that after a short period of ruined exports a deal would be very quickly arrived at if riots on the streets of Europe are to be avoided! Same with the lamb! How are the butchers, wholesalers and consumers in Europe going to deal with the shortfall? Just curious? Can they plug the shortfall, where from? Again I would suggest that rumblings from the public, not the idiotic intransigent politicians, will soon HAVE to resolve matters!

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:17:57

Oh no Ellenvannin I do not plan on calming down. So, do you question your GP? Or do you believe him/her? Do you believe Climate change experts or do you dismiss them as Project Fear? Or do you know that answering the questions truthfully will make you look just a little bit silly?

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:15:12

felice why do you call analysis such as this "scaremongering". This people would never work again if they were producing untrue reports just to frightened us. If you could produce equally reputable people saying the opposite I could understand it. But the aren't! You are saying it and people like you are saying it but I have not seen a single worthwhile source that says the opposite to these findings.

Don't you think it would be all over the newspapers if some trustworthy research somewhere had shown everything would stay just the same? What should we call a view that is just yours and a few very untrustworthy politicians personal opinion? Pie in the sky or just plain ignorance?

dragonfly46 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:15:05

I have just read an article in the medical journal saying how doctors are extremely worried because radioisotopes used in radiotherapy are in the main produced in Europe. They are imported every day and have a short shelf life. Without them many people's therapy will be postponed or cancelled.

Who said we should just try and stay healthy. I have a very healthy life style but still contracted cancer and will need radiotherapy in November.

And no this is not scare mongering. The doctors do not have an axe to grind.

I am sure it will all get sorted within the next 50 years but I cannot wait that long.

felice Mon 05-Aug-19 16:13:45

Growstuff. Anywat who knows, Tuvalu may do better than the UK, the ambassador and his wife would like that, will I give them your best wishes Growstuff.

EllanVannin Mon 05-Aug-19 16:13:07

I don't need to get a grip, on the contrary it's yourself who's het-up.
I've already proved that I'm not bothered, it's you who needs to calm down.

I'm sitting back thinking of all the airheads who voted to leave and whether they're the ones doing the most grousing, but they wouldn't admit it of course.

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:06:35

Felice who are you aiming your defensive tirade at?

felice Mon 05-Aug-19 16:04:12

If that was aimed at me then it is rude and cheeky, how do you know I do not know exactly what I am talking about. Did you read the post properly or just want to abuse someone who live in an other EU country'.
I had stopped posting on here as was tired of being abused and reporting people.
There are other ports than Dover, few ferries from here go there, check your facts before you open your mouth.

GillT57 Mon 05-Aug-19 16:01:19

Bloody hell, there are none so blind as those who will not see. I don't know where to start, or whether to even bother to be honest. The Lancet is an esteemed medical journal, not a tabloid ( most of which are pro-Brexit anyway), I assume you Ellenvannin and Opel have a GP? Do you follow their guidance based on the research and training they have done? Maybe even some of it based on learned papers published in the Lancet? Or maybe you just dismiss your GP's opinion and tell him/her you can manage fine thanks, their opinion is just scare mongering? Thought not, now you know how silly your posts are. Nobody knows what will happen if we crash out, but many people, based on their years of research and experience are having a very good guess and I believe their forecasts more than those of people who keep on harping on about rationing as if it was a wonderful idea. Get a grip folks.

GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 15:58:13

Opal have you never heard of research? We read and learn from the people who know a lot more than we do in one particular area. That is exactly why people on here draw attention to that information. What is it that you believe and what acquired knowledge do you base it on? Just because we start with ignorance of a particular area we do not have to remain that way.

But I can see you just do not believe anyone can lift their ignorance in this area - not even the learned people published in the Lancet. I suppose you don't go to doctors or hospitals either because you are sure you know better than those who are very educated in that area.

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 15:58:02

Some people really are stupid enough not to believe there will be problems.

By the way, do you really think Tuvalu will win the football World Cup?

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 15:56:08

So stop claiming you know!

Frankly, I'd rather trust people who spent their working lives analysing situations intelligently.

It's not rocket science to work out that if extra customs checks are made at a port like Dover, the flow of imports and exports will slow down. Jeez!

felice Mon 05-Aug-19 15:38:13

Scaremongering, suppliers here export a lot of stuff to the UK, same in the Netherlands do you really think they are stupid enough to have not already thought about the consequences of brexit and how to deal with it.
In fact the main problems at the moment are coming the other way. My Son-in-laws company has had to stop inporting some British Cheeses, within a week of the referendum the manufacturers had tripled the prices. They blamed brexit, duh !!!!!!!!
The company spoke to their customers who were not prepared to pay the extra and it was too high for them to take the hit.
I take all these reports with a pinch of salt. No one knows what will happen it is all conjecture, bit like a UK mens football team winning the World cup. All hype and hot air.

Opal Mon 05-Aug-19 15:35:18

Exactly that, growstuff, you just don't know, I just don't know, no-one knows! So let's just see and stop the scaremongering. It might be the best decision this country's ever made …..

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 15:04:03

EllanVannin, It isn't a fact that there will be no shortages. The only fact is that you just don't know.

(And roll your eyes as much as you like.)

growstuff Mon 05-Aug-19 15:02:29

WOODMOUSE, Higher calorie foods are the cheap ones - potatoes, rice, bread, pastry, pasta, anything thickened with flour/grain, not just those with obvious sugar.

Snack foods aren't necessarily high calorie