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More people want to leave EU, even Remainers, than before.

(102 Posts)
newnanny Wed 11-Sep-19 10:11:14

It seems the tide may be turning for Brexit. More people now want to leave EU than at point of the referendum. Even Remainers now want to leave on Oct 31st and even with no deal if necessary. Outside of Parliament and of course Gransnet, leaving is very poplular with or without a deal.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1176414/brexit-latest-news-eu-uk-exit-no-deal-latest-boris-johnson-uk-politics

EllanVannin Wed 11-Sep-19 10:17:56

Nope. I'm one Remainer who wants to Remain so that's that !

Teetime Wed 11-Sep-19 10:20:02

Get me out! That's what I voted for I didn't specify the terms just get me out.

newnanny Wed 11-Sep-19 10:20:23

Ah but you are on Gransnet!

EllanVannin Wed 11-Sep-19 10:26:52

This fiasco is too little too late and should have been decided some 30 years ago before we ended up with this shambles of a country that we have today.

( 1st post vanished ! )

GrandmaMoira Wed 11-Sep-19 10:35:01

I've not come across any Remainers that have become Leavers. The opposite is true, many who accepted leaving are now very concerned about the future with no deal and nothing planned for future trade.

GrandmaMoira Wed 11-Sep-19 10:36:41

I should have said what I see is not from Gransnet but from friends, family, FB and people talking in local shops.

trisher Wed 11-Sep-19 10:39:47

I don't know any Remainers who have changed their minds. I do know a lot of people who are desperately worried about No Deal. Fake news?

Doodledog Wed 11-Sep-19 10:40:38

When was the second referendum?

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 10:43:33

I agree, GrandmaMoira. newnanny the Express quotes a poll from ComRes, but I can't see it on their website. Do you have a link? The last 2 polls published surveyed 1,488 and 2,009 adults, which surely isn't really likely to predict the views of 60 million people, no matter how representative they're supposed to be?

Chestnut Wed 11-Sep-19 10:54:31

That is no surprise. People are sick to death of this circus. It's making us look like utter fools. Unlike May Boris has no fear and is prepared to deliver what the people voted for. He has MPs howling but the people are behind him.

Bridgeit Wed 11-Sep-19 10:56:43

A person with no fear is a fool indeed.

newnanny Wed 11-Sep-19 11:16:16

ComRes states

The majority of the British public (54%) agree that irrespective of whether or not they voted to leave the EU, the 2016 Referendum result should be respected.
Half of the British public disagree (49%) that Brexit should be delayed for a further three months to 31 January 2020, whilst less than three in ten (29%) agree.

This is on the ComRes website now.

MamaCaz Wed 11-Sep-19 11:22:53

I wouldn't even touch a facecream that had only been approved by that number and percentage of testers, so I'm certainly not going to take such a limited poll on such an important matter seriously.

CanuckaLatte Wed 11-Sep-19 11:24:39

I've not come across any Remainers that have become Leavers. The opposite is true, many who accepted leaving are now very concerned about the future with no deal and nothing planned for future trade.

This ^^. My MIL, who voted leave because of all the "immigrants making her doctor's surgery too busy" has decided that the colossal drop in the pound and her groceries going up by about 30% is far more annoying. hmm She's now praying that Boris fails, the Lib Dems get voted in, and we can turn this train wreck around.

CanuckaLatte Wed 11-Sep-19 11:28:15

When was the second referendum?

Soon hopefully. We reaffirm democracy every four years by having an election - surprise surprise, people change their minds. We are coming up on four years, time to reaffirm democracy and see whether people still want to stay or leave.
THAT'S true democracy.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 11:37:18

newnanny I still can't see this poll on the ComRes website, could you provide a link, please? How many people is it based on?

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 11:41:04

Sorry newnanny I've found this now - it was based on the views of 1,488 people...!!

WOODMOUSE49 Wed 11-Sep-19 11:42:21

Bridgeit

"He who has overcome his fears will truly be free. " Aristotle

crystaltipps Wed 11-Sep-19 11:43:22

Ooh a poll in the Excess. Must be true then ( not).
It’s not just about changing minds, what about all those elderly voters who have died. All the voters who were under 18 3 years ago. Maybe they should have a say in the current mess we are in. None of which was predicted 3 years ago. Oh, apart from the £ crashing, businesses relocating to Europe, job losses, possible medicine and food shortages, troubles with the border in Ireland, the normalisation of politicians lying, increase in hate crime, shortage of farm and health care workers, the soaring debt, the weakening of our science base, the divisions in families and society, the worsening of the trade gap, I mean we all think Brexit a great idea now do we? Or is it just the people ones who can’t be ar*sed to think about it and just think by leaving it will all be marvellous. Think again.

WOODMOUSE49 Wed 11-Sep-19 11:48:35

newnanny

The quote from ComRes is totally misleading which in other posts has been pointed out. They really should quantify the result.

"The majority of the British public (54%) agree ..."

Should read: The majority of the 1,488 British public interviewed (54%) agree ..."

Vonnybobs Wed 11-Sep-19 11:57:44

For goodness sake stop with the scaremongering and get us out of the EU, they only want our money can’t anyone see that!!!

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 12:01:54

No!! - I can't see that..

crystaltipps Wed 11-Sep-19 12:12:29

This is not scaremongering - Job losses, relocation of businesses, price rises, increase in hate crime, shortage of agriculture and health care workers, £ crashing, divisions in society are all happening now. Leaving with no deal will be an act of economic self harm - a country putting economic sanctions on itself. Of course they don’t “only want our money”, we gained many economic benefits for our contribution. Those who believe the lies of millionaire elites who will benefit from deregulation and money laundering opportunities will be hardest hit.

newnanny Wed 11-Sep-19 12:38:42

I think many people are getting sick of MP's who are supposed to represent their constituencies and agreed to implement Brexit but use every opportunity to try to revoke (Lib Dems) or refuse to implement (by voting against everything (Labour). We need a GE to settle argument. I see Labour are now going to agree a leave deal with EU and then campaign for remain and vote against the deal they broker. Only Labour could come up with this hypocrisy.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 12:43:29

newnanny yet again: the vote was to prevent No Deal - NOT to prevent Brexit

Elegran Wed 11-Sep-19 12:53:20

The millionaire elite who have become multi-millionaires by trading against the pound in international money markets (in their spare time from promoting Brexit and the fall in sterling) have grabbed far more of our money than we pay to theEU - and invested it in tax havens. They won't be giving any back, as the EU will, in funded projects like these. www.myeu.uk/
Enter you own postcode and see what your local area has received, or browse the map to see other areas.

JenniferEccles Wed 11-Sep-19 12:54:27

Unfortunately I now fear we will never leave.

There are too many MPs who are determined to prevent Brexit by any means possible.

Of course it is dressed up as concern over a no deal exit but their intention is obvious.

I think Boris’s best bet is to accept Nigel Farage ‘s offer of help.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 12:56:26

I think you mean their intention is obvious to you

crystaltipps Wed 11-Sep-19 13:21:45

Nigel Farages “offer of help”, that’s a poisoned chalice with barbed wire strings attached if ever I heard one. Who paid for the pages of newspaper ads by the Brexit Company? Let’s hope BJ is actually bright enough to spot this trap.

crystaltipps Wed 11-Sep-19 13:23:22

Farage the man who has never won a fptp election - who’s he trying to “help”?Himself.

growstuff Wed 11-Sep-19 13:25:31

The last 66 polls show a consistent trend, which is that more people are now in favour of Remain.

It would appear that the Express and Gransnetters' friends and neighbours are in the minority.

growstuff Wed 11-Sep-19 13:26:54

I wouldn't let Farage help me carry my shopping bags.

janipat Wed 11-Sep-19 13:28:11

newnanny I think many people are getting sick of MP's who are supposed to represent their constituencies

What about those constituencies that voted to remain? Does their MP honour their wishes, or the wishes of a different constituency that voted leave? You really can't have it that only leave constituencies have a right of representation.

growstuff Wed 11-Sep-19 13:28:57

However, they will have to be more honest about declaring tax, if the UK is still in the EU in January 2020.

I don't suppose there could possibly be any connection. wink

BlueBelle Wed 11-Sep-19 13:59:20

Every remainder I know is as committed as ever
I will NEVER change my mind even if it happens and I have to accept that a TINY proportion of the UK population 17.000.000 have made a disastrous mistake for the rest of the 66,000,000 I will still never forget what they have done to my grandchildren’s lives

Chestnut Wed 11-Sep-19 14:14:14

Remainers keep quoting polls in an attempt to prove that most people have changed their minds about leaving and want to remain. I don't trust polls.......I trust votes.

Only 16 weeks ago people voted overwhelmingly for the Brexit Party and turned the map blue in the European Elections. This has been the only recent opportunity for people to vote and they made it very clear what they wanted. To leave! This was a message to the MPs that they were fed up with the arguing and to just get us out.

Remainers are entitled to their individual opinions but the majority have made it very clear they want to leave and that is democracy, whether you like it or not.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 14:24:56

Actually chestnut

if you add together votes for the brexit party and for the Conservatives (assuming that represents the Leave vote), the toal no. of votes was 6,761,342

combining votes for LibDem Labour and Green the total was 8,615,874

so in fact the (principally) remain parties got more votes than the (principally) leave parties

Amagran Wed 11-Sep-19 14:25:14

Remain, remain, remain. BJ, Rees Mogg and Cummings v. the EU?? It's a no-brainer!

I am sufficiently confident in the outcome of a second referendum to support our having one. I have the feeling that many Leave supporters do not support a second referendum because they know full well how it will go!

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 14:26:30

Agreed, Amagran, as the EU election votes suggest!

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 14:27:13

Another example of misinformation in chestnut's post?

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 14:29:09

The percentages (allowing for rounding) were

pro-leave 39.3%
pro-remain 44.1%

(leaving out the other parties, not sure where to put them!)

Elegran Wed 11-Sep-19 14:29:36

The votes cast in a second referendum, now that there has been a great deal more information and discussion, would give a far more accurate picture of "what the people want". That is why it is not likely to happen!

Doodledog Wed 11-Sep-19 14:44:14

*When was the second referendum?

Soon hopefully. We reaffirm democracy every four years by having an election - surprise surprise, people change their minds. We are coming up on four years, time to reaffirm democracy and see whether people still want to stay or leave.
THAT'S true democracy.*

I couldn't agree more confused.

Doodledog Wed 11-Sep-19 14:46:09

Something went wrong there. I meant that I don't disagree that a referendum would be a good thing. That is why I asked if the OP's assertion was based on a referendum I had missed.

Chestnut Wed 11-Sep-19 15:26:40

I am sufficiently confident in the outcome of a second referendum to support our having one. I have the feeling that many Leave supporters do not support a second referendum because they know full well how it will go!

As a Leave supporter I am absolutely certain leave would win! However, how many referendum do you want? Do we have to keep voting until you get the result you want?

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 15:36:27

No, a single legally-binding referendum (unlike the last one, which was advisory) with a mimimum% turnout and % margin between the highest vote and the second-highest vote would be enough for me...

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 15:51:52

And me humptydumpty as a remainer, I would accept the result of another referendum if there was a minimum percentage turnout and a significant margin between the votes. It strikes me that remain voters are happy to accept the result of another fair vote, but the brexit supporters are very vociferous in demanding that we leave now......could it be be because they know they will not get the result they want, or is it because they are beginning to realise they have been misled, lied to, and desperately want to get this fraudulent result over the line before even more people realise just who the winners and losers will be? Surely, if you are so confident that you voted for the best result for your family and for the country in general, as I did, then you should be happy for a re-run?

Chestnut Wed 11-Sep-19 16:03:04

if you are so confident that you voted for the best result for your family and for the country in general, as I did, then you should be happy for a re-run?

Everyone in the country was told in the 2016 pro-remain Referedum Leaflet that the Referendum is a once in a generation decision and that the Government will implement what you decide.

We decided and we voted. But Remainers cannot accept that decision.

lemongrove Wed 11-Sep-19 16:11:41

True Chestnut ( remainers cannot accept that decision)
Either in Parliament, in the country and on social media.
Although, we shouldn’t tar all remainers with the same brush, as many do accept the democratic vote, and others just want to get on with it.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 16:14:09

Chestnut, no matter what we were told or understood, the fact of the matter is that it was not a legally binding referendum:

*A UK referendum will only have the force of law if the Act setting it up says so. In practical terms this would mean someone would be able to go to court to make the government implement the result. The Alternative Vote referendum in 2011, for example, was legally binding in this way.

Otherwise, as the High Court put it on 3 November:

“a referendum on any topic can only be advisory for the lawmakers in Parliament”.*

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 16:29:11

So, why not run it again? Proper rules in force, not back of a fag packet stuff like last time. A General Election will solve nothing, and we will still be where we are now, and I agree that we need to get this sorted, life needs to go on, and money is being spent at an eye watering rate with no tangible result.

humptydumpty Wed 11-Sep-19 16:37:54

Agree 100% GillT57

sarahellenwhitney Wed 11-Sep-19 16:56:22

What have been the benefits of EU membership that saw
a' leave' majority.

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 18:41:23

I don't understand your question *Sarahellenwitney".

Whitewavemark2 Wed 11-Sep-19 18:44:53

Oh dear fake I’m afraid.

You.gov. Dated 22August

Remain 46%

Leave 42%

Elegran Wed 11-Sep-19 19:36:16

If someone (for whatever motive) says something untrue in a TV interview, or drafts a leaflet that gives a false impression, does that become more legal than a law which says the opposite? This country is not governed by what is in leaflets, or by what a habitual liar says in the media, it is governed by the wording of laws and by their interpretation by an independent judiciary.

varian Wed 11-Sep-19 19:50:12

I agree with the OP that "It seems the tide may be turning for Brexit", but not the way she has been informed by the Daily Express.

That is wishful thinking on their part,

The tide is turning because people are appalled by the behaviour of our so called PM brexit buffoon Boris Johnson and some are quite worried about the non disclosure of the Yellowhammer documents which Andrea Ledsom says cannot be published because they could frighten people.

Peolpe who still recite stupid mantras like "here we go WTO, bring it on" really really need to be given the facts that will certainly frighten them and make them think again.

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 20:19:57

I have just read operation yellow hammer. Will try and find link.

FlyingSolo Wed 11-Sep-19 20:35:56

It has just been published. It is everywhere. Risk to water supply is low, not non existant, but low. And obviously lots of much bigger risks in major areas of day to day life. I think we are out of our minds to take our chances with a no deal brexit. Yes, I know we have been through worse but not deliberately.

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 20:36:36

Can't copy link as on phone rather than laptop but if you Google it there it is. Scary but predictable. Perhaps we remoaners should run a book on who will be first to cry 'Project Fear'.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 11-Sep-19 20:45:27

gill I’ve started a thread with a link

GillT57 Wed 11-Sep-19 21:01:26

Thanks ww

varian Wed 11-Sep-19 21:01:33

It appears that not is all well in the land of unicorns.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7452187/Boris-Johnson-launches-extraordinary-attack-not-fit-proper-Nigel-Farage.html

Deedaa Wed 11-Sep-19 21:13:30

The biggest problem remains the fact that they did not require a meaningful majority before they implemented the referendum. If they had asked for 60/40 or even better 70/30 the result would have been clear cut. As it is the numbers of remainers and leavers were almost equal and getting them to agree on anything has proved pretty much impossible.

Dyffryn Wed 11-Sep-19 21:23:08

When I read the initial post and realised you were quoting from the express I switched off.

Dinahmo Wed 11-Sep-19 21:25:17

I don't know any Remainers who want to leave the EU. Many people say they just want things sorted and this has been misinterpreted as we want to leave. They haven't been asked if they would like it sorted by the revocation of Article 50.

varian Wed 11-Sep-19 21:33:22

Revokation is the only way to stop this brexit nonsense.

That needs to be explained in words of one syllable to anyone who thinks that " just get it done" would mean the end, rather than just the beginning of this brexit nonsense.

growstuff Wed 11-Sep-19 21:48:56

I've been in the car quite a lot today and had the radio switched on. Every single current affairs/news programme had leavers in vox pop interviewers saying they wanted to get it over with/the government had messed up etc etc. Bias or what?

Urmstongran Wed 11-Sep-19 22:12:53

Angela Merkel thinks a deal can be done. I hope so, then we can just get on with it and Leave.

That’s if the HoC vote for it.

I won’t be holding my breath.

HootyMcOwlface Wed 11-Sep-19 22:15:50

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

Someone on
Mumsnet posted it

varian Fri 13-Sep-19 17:38:33

Remain Would Win 55-45 In Second Referendum, Poll Shows

www.lbc.co.uk/news/remain-55-45-second-referendum-brexit-poll/

This was a few weeks ago, but I think the margin would be greater now.

I wonder why the quitters don't want a public vote?

lemongrove Fri 13-Sep-19 18:23:30

Because we’ve had a public vote!

Highly unlikely there will be another one.

Welshwife Fri 13-Sep-19 18:48:37

If a referendum is a once in a lifetime decision why did we have one in 2016 when we had already had one in many people’s lifetime in 1975?

varian Fri 13-Sep-19 20:43:48

Here is labour MP @Meg_HillierMP explaining how now many labour leave voters in areas such as the North East are now understanding more about the ramifications of Brexit and they are changing their minds and are #RemainerNow. Indeed.

twitter.com/RemainerNow/status/1172594231157907456?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

growstuff Fri 13-Sep-19 20:48:29

Errrmm...Where did you get the idea that Merkel thinks a deal can be done? confused She's treated Johnson like a silly schoolboy - and he's behaving like one.

EthelJ Fri 13-Sep-19 20:52:03

All the remainers I know still want to remain, includimg me.

Daisymae Fri 13-Sep-19 21:53:13

I don't know any remained who have changed their minds. I do know of people who didn't vote, but would now vote to stay. Equally the polls can't be trusted, surely we have learnt that!

Elegran Sat 14-Sep-19 09:50:57

"ComRes surveyed 2,016 British adults online between Sept 6 and 8" - They only surveyed just over 2000 people and have made assumptions on that about the other millions they didn't survey? How many "don't knows" were there? How did they select those 2,000 odd? We are not told that.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics - and the way those statistics are presented is important to their impact on readers (particularly non-critical readers of partisan media)

The Telegraph is facing criticism from the research industry for claiming that the prime minister has the support of ‘more than half of the public’ to ‘deliver Brexit by any means’, in its reporting of an opinion poll conducted by ComRes. Research Live

(Research Live is the world's leading source of industry news, opinion, special reports and feature articles for market and social researchers, data analysts and consumer insight professionals.)

Missfoodlove Sat 14-Sep-19 11:12:29

I have two friends that were staunch remainers.
They would now vote leave after seeing the way we have been treated, it made them question and delve further.
They say that many of their friends and colleagues feel the same

varian Sat 14-Sep-19 12:40:02

Jen, a teacher from Southampton, voted Leave in 2016. She slowly started to see Brexit becoming nothing like what was promised to voters like her. She also understands the EU better now. Jen is a Remainer Now.

"I voted Leave, but I DID NOT vote for No-Deal. The concept of No-Deal did not even exist during the referendum!! In 2016, it seemed to me that by voting Leave the UK would keep all the benefits of being in the European Union (Single Market/Freedom of Movement, etc.), but have less EU rules and more money. I am a teacher and a mother. I did not have the time to decipher what was a Vote Leave broadcast and what was not.

But then, I slowly started to see Brexit becoming nothing like what was promised. People, however, seemed to be blind to this fact justbecause they had ‘won’ and accepted the lies. If MPs in Government are telling me something, how am I supposed to know it is only an ‘intention’? This is not a football match. It is the future of a Nation and people’s lives. In 2016, Britain said Leave. Now, after 3 years, we ACTUALLY know what ‘Leave’ means. I (we) know so much more now!

When the Leave/Cambridge Analytica scandal started to unravel I was horrified. Again Leave voters are either ignoring this or not bothered because they ‘won’. It is not even about Leave vs Remain, it is about a fair and informed electorate and Democracy.

I wanted to find out what Leave voters would think if it were the other way round and Remain had broken the law to sway votes,promote lies and ultimately subvert Democracy. So, I maybe asked 200 people on Twitter, and so far 0 have responded. What does that tell you?

Being free from EU control and laws was also a factor that made me voted Leave. Only after the vote did I find out how the EU Parliament actually works.

I am so annoyed with myself that I fell for the Leave fiction on Facebook and in the media. Especially after I saw this Twitter thread and could not believe it. All those EU rules Brexiters go mad about... There are actually just 72 laws that were forced on us, and they 100% benefit the UK! And every other EU law has been voted for by UK MEPs and passed by UK Ministers. So much for the EU being undemocratic!"

vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2019/09/12/i-voted-leave-i-hate-myself-for-believing-the-lies/

Pantglas1 Sat 14-Sep-19 12:47:10

What worries me about her is that she was stupid enough to believe everything she was told and she’s a teacher......aaargh!

Hazeld Sat 14-Sep-19 12:50:37

If it hadn't been for Ms May and her not wanting to leave without keeping favour with the bigwigs in Brussels, we would have been out by now. We voted to leave regardless and that's what we should be doing. Get us out now. The sooner the better

varian Sat 14-Sep-19 12:56:52

Have you even heard of the Yellowhammer report Hazeld?

If it hadn't been for Ms May and her not wanting to leave without keeping favour with the bigwigs in the ERG, we might have been have been out by now. Some poorly informed people voted to leave regardless and that's why we should be having another vote now we can all be properly informed. The sooner the better

Smileless2012 Sat 14-Sep-19 13:04:40

It would depend on how many of the 17.4m who voted to leave based their decision only on the means used to subvert votes and the 'lies' from the leave campaign, and if remain had won, how many of them voted due to the doom, gloom and despondency predictions they believed in.

Me too Pantglass I mean her vote appeared to be based on what she read on Facebook and in the media! She was unable to "decipher what was a Vote Leave broadcast and what was not"!

So 72 laws were forced on us, regardless of the benefit of those laws to the UK, I find it hard to equate the EU being democratic if it was able to force laws on to this country that presumably we didn't want.

Smileless2012 Sat 14-Sep-19 13:09:17

And do you really believe varian that with people like Jen, a teacher for goodness sake, who struggled to know the difference between a vote leave broadcast and a remain one, who relied on Facebook for her information, are going to be any better informed in the run up to another referendum.

There's a huge difference between being ill informed and lacking the wit to choose more reliable sources of information.

DillytheGardener Sat 14-Sep-19 13:25:52

Well I changed my mind, I voted leave, I'd now vote remain. This is based on Brexit directly causing both my children's jobs to be moved from London to other countries in the EU. They are now emigrating to N.Z and Canada.

My friend who is a nurse in the NHS is despairing as EU citizens are leaving the workforce in droves with no-one to replace them. This is happening across the board in the NHS from her experience. Both my MIL and father in their 90's rely heavily on carers and doctors from the EU.

I regret my vote. I regret that the U.K is inevitably going to breakup due to Brexit. We had a strong economy and my sons opinion is we should have left well enough alone and voted remain.

I haven't mentioned my regret to my children though, as I would get a lecture from them as they are very frustrated they have to emigrate. (They are from different industries, one a 'city' worker and the other is in the arts.)

GrannySquare Sat 14-Sep-19 13:30:56

I am concerned that the Yellowhammer document doing the round looks like it fell of the back of a photocopier. For a Government risk assessment programme documentation, I would expect it to be ‘stamped’ with some formal logo or to have been loaded into a standard document template, maybe quoting sources & links to other relevant documents.

GrannySquare Sat 14-Sep-19 13:38:58

Remember the Sunday Times hoo-hah about the Hitler Diaries? How many journos in the quality press got suckered into that one?

Nowt to do with Brexit or Hitler.
The point is that people wanted it to be the real thing, for a variety of reasons.

Of course the UK Govt models worst-case scenarios, when do they not? But I’d expect the documentation of any large-scale risk assessment exercise to be well documented to a given standard.

I do not doubt the forecast of worst case upheaval & am concerned as are many, I am just sceptical about the provenance of the summary pages whizzing round on social media.

varian Sat 14-Sep-19 13:49:45

Apparently the government has modelled a worst case scenario in a document code named Black Swan, which of course it does not even acknowledge, let alone publish.

Having been forced by parliament to publish Yellowhammer they altered the description "base scenario" to "worst case scenario" and keep describing it as such.

Just another lie.

nannypink1 Sat 14-Sep-19 15:35:28

Like everyone else I’m sick of the sight of this lot BUT as a leaver I feel it’s totally undemocratic to go against the result of the 2016 referendum...I’m so so angry at the way the remainders in parliament have done everything in their power to stop it ...they don’t want a deal at all they want no Brexit ...our MP voted to remain and has campaigned and voted against Brexit despite us the people in my town voting to leave ...and Bercow should be impartial ...he should just go NOW ...they’re just an undemocratic lot...

growstuff Sat 14-Sep-19 16:33:07

I don't agree that acting in the interest of as many people as possible is undemocratic.

growstuff Sat 14-Sep-19 16:41:45

GrannySquare That went through my mind when I saw it. It really isn't how a risk assessment is usually written and it's very flimsy. Quite obviously, there is a lot more to it. I did see a copy of the official agenda (somebody had taken it on a phone I guess) and clearly more was discussed than what's in the document which was released to the public. It seems like the kind of notes somebody might make for personal use.

MarthaBeck Sat 14-Sep-19 17:03:05

I notice the article is written by one of the most Anti EU papers in the UK. Better known for manipulation and fake journalism than true stories about the EU. Yet, still attracts so many gullible people, as it did in the 30’s with its support once for Hitler.

MarthaBeck Sat 14-Sep-19 17:23:00

Nannypink1,
I can understand your feelings, but a No deal which Parliament threw out is very different to Brexit. I was delighted when the Speaker reminded Boris of the facts.
A no deal would put my grandchildren future at risk, hurt millions living below the poverty line. Make many grabbing spivs very rich at the expense of us all.
Sorry, but that is not what I voted for three years ago, I want us to now stay in the UK knowing more of the true facts. Cannot see ANY benefits in leaving, but lots of dangers.

Tweedle24 Sat 14-Sep-19 17:35:41

I voted ‘remain’ but, were there a second referendum, I would definitely vote to come out, preferably with a deal.

I now realise that I voted by instinct as my life at that time was in turmoil. However, in calmer times, and with more knowledge, I would not vote the same way.

growstuff Sat 14-Sep-19 17:46:26

What additional knowledge do you now have, which has influenced your decision?

growstuff Sat 14-Sep-19 18:14:33

GrannySquare The document which is floating round the net is the official release from the government - it's available on the official website.

However, the government has absolutely no intention of releasing the full papers.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831197/Letter_from_the_Chancellor_of_the_Duchy_of_Lancaster_CDL00320.pdf

What the government has issued is the copy which had already been leaked to the Times at the beginning of August. It looks like a version of somebody's notes.

The government has actually given no further information, has changed the heading and redacted part of the document.

First it tried to claim that the leaked document was a fake, which it obviously wasn't, then it tried to claim it was a worse case scenario, rather than a base (and probable) scenario.

Quite frankly, the government is lying through its teeth and attempting a massive cover-up. What could be so awful that it can't let the public know?

GrannySquare Sat 14-Sep-19 20:05:33

quite @growstuff.

For a whatever case scenario risk assessment, I’d expect to see probability & impact alongside. Otherwise it is a meaningless list.

Yes, there are detailed risk assessments for the UK stacked high on Civil Servants shelves (rather digital files on t’cloud) & that will include Brexit. Yes, there will be disruption & this will be assessed, & plans made to mitigate the impact of the step change any Brexit deal will bring.

I am deeply sceptical of the YellowHammer document.
I see it as a red herring.

GrannySquare Sat 14-Sep-19 20:09:51

Aha @growstuff, thank you for the URL.

The sentence below addresses my concerns about the ‘unofficial’ presentation, it is just a text version of the document. I am now less sceptical.

‘I have written as attached to the Rt Hon Hilary Benn to provide to the EU Exit Select Committee the text of Yellowhammer planning assumptions which detailed a reasonable worst case scenario...’