What happens next?

I heard Julia Gillard on Politics Live and she said that Australia was open to trade deals with Britain, but that it cannot replace the levels of current trade between the UK and the EU.

However, according to Liz Truss the UK could agree a trade deal with Australia within months. Easy. But we have heard this sort of statement before, haven't we?

Then we have Priti Patel whose mission it is to end free movement of people once and for all. She firmly believes in the Australian point based system. Apparently this will ensure that only the very best and brightest will gain entry into Britain. She forgot to mention the hostile environment.

Home truths from abroad

Discussions between the UK and European Union will not take place this weekend as Brussels dealt a heavy blow to Boris Johnson's new Brexit proposals.

Talks between the two sides were thought likely to continue on Saturday after the Prime Minister set out his plan to replace the controversial Irish backstop .

But the European Commission said EU member states had agreed the proposals "do not provide a basis for concluding an agreement".

A spokesman said discussions between the two sides would not take place this weekend and instead the UK would be given "another opportunity to present its proposals in detail" on Monday.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-eu-cancels-weekend-talks-because-boris-johnsons-new-plans-do-not-provide-a-basis-a4254886.html

The granting of an extension has nothing to do with the withdrawal Agreement, David. The WA provides for a transition period of 2 years during which we would have left the EU but retain alignment while the next steps are worked out. An extension keeps us in the EU.

EU leaders (I refuse to refer the 'the EU' as if it were some sort of uncontrollable and independent entity; it isn't, it's a union of states, all of which have a say in how it is run) must be well aware of the state of chaos which engulfs the UK at the moment and have no desire to make it any worse.

EU leaders are logical and rational but there comes a point after 3 yrs negotiating every full stop and comma AND not trusting the U.K. negotiators, they could say, leave we are going to protect the single market. The backstop deal was proposed a year ago, they have not moved one inch, it’s not a tactic, they have reached the limit of concessions, that’s not going to change if there is an extension

Now it’s up to MPs to accept the reality of the situation and stop clutching at straws, either accept what’s on offer or no deal and suffer the consequences. If there is a deal in the next 2 weeks a transition extension would be granted, if the deal was legal and watertight

so it is highly likely that the EU will force no deal. For them no deal is better than a bad deal

And, rereading David's post I am stunned that he should think that the rational EU leaders would adopt May's highly irresponsible and inept thinking about the desirability of no deal.

I disagree with davidhs. I think all the member states will agree to an extension because, however fed up they may be in private, they don't want to force us into no deal.

Particularly as that is precisely what Cummings wants the EU to do, reject extension request and force no deal.

Apologies should "Constituencies" in my above post not "consequences".

Trying rush things to get of to work. ?

Just to add to my above post, many Labour MPs represent leave consequences in the North of England. They have been under heavy pressure to take a Leave stance in the House of Commons but have maintained allegiance to the Party policy on Brexit.

However, should they see Corbyn pushed to one side as being leader of any temporary government, those MPs would without a doubt fall into line with their Constituency parties and join the leave camp.

Opposition MPs outside the Labour Party in the House of Commons need to look at the reality of the situation in their thinking.

absthame the opposition parties can only win if they have the support of a large majority of the Labour Party who are by far the second-largest party in the House of Commons.

Many of them are very loyal to Corbyn and in that they will not support any other MP attempting to form a temporary government even if Corbyn himself were to offer to stand down.

People concentrate on opponents of Jeremy Corbyn in the Parliamentary Labour Party, but they forget that there are many very loyal to him. Some of them are leave persons in their personal view but have followed the party policy of General Election first and then a second referendum.

Should those MPs see Corbyn being "pushed to one side" they may well become "leave" in their attitude in the House of Commons?

Grandad1943 has got the likely progression IF there is no deal, nobody wants that to happen. The MPs are still going to be the same after 31st October a GE is going to be a month away and no Brexit solution in view.

It’s highly likely that an extension will be vetoed by someone in EU, so it is highly likely that the EU will force no deal. For them no deal is better than a bad deal, so faced with that MPs are more likely to accept a deal.

Before or after October 31st there has got to be a deal, if that has to be dragged out with each commodity and service over 5 yrs so be it. What happens to the Irish border then, the Tories don’t really care about NI, only their own dogma.

well the inner council of the court of session is sitting on the 4th of October with a date for the hearing on the 8th.They can either issue an arrest warrant for Johnson ....if he insists on leaving with no deal OR send the letter of extension for him.Scottish law .Like it or lump it they have the power to do either or both those things

I do not think it is possible to predict what might happen next.

Varian I agree. The opposition parties can only win if they have the support of most of tHe Tory rebels and that will not happen if the alliance is led by Corbyn or one of his clique. On the other hand if a more acceptable person was selected as the PM the alliance could hold together well into the new year making a people's vote a distinct possibility before a general election.

Varian, any vote of no confidence will not now take place prior to the 15th of October. That is to ensure that Johnson carries out the requirements of the Benn act in requesting an extension to article fifty or secures a withdrawal agreement acceptable to parliament.

Should Johnson fail in either of the above Corbyn will place a vote of no confidence in johnsons government which would undoubtedly be carried. However, Johnson would still have two weeks to try an set up a minority government acceptable to parliament, which would undoubtedly fail.

The Monarch would then call the leader of the opposition to the Palace and ask him to try and form a government but by that time Britain may well be within one or two days of crashing out of the EU with no deal.

So, it would be for the Lib Dems and some others in the House of Commons to either get behind Corbyn in very quickly setting up a temporary government and then prevent the UK no deal brexit or be responsible for Britain crashing out of the European Union in economically disastrous circumstances.

The decision would be theirs, the country first or stupid argument.

Jo Swinson has pointed out that Corbyn is very unlikely to win support from Tory and Labour rebels and independents The numbers for Corbyn, who is a problematic figurs, do not add up. It would be much better to unite round a respected senior MP such as Margaret Beckett, Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke.

MaizieD, I feel Jo Swinson does not want to see the Johnson government brought down at present for what is known as self promotion.

I believe that Swinson will be prepared to see the above come about if she sees there is a large advantage to her in such an event.

What she has to realise is that the Lib Dems are not the largest opposition party in the House of Commons. When she does the Rebel Alliance in Parliament will most definitely move forward.

Again, sadly I feel that Swinson is the weak link in that alliance.

She's called Jo Swinson and I cannot for the life of me see why she wouldn't want to see Johnson's government brought down.

paddyann, I agree, I do not think also that Jo Swindon wishes to see Johnsons government brought down.

Her and the Lib Dems are the weak link in the Rebel Alliance.

I'll assume you ahdn't seen her voting record and the fact she voted with the tories even more than Mogg did !!

no help from Swinson who says she wont back a vote of no confidence or any attempt to put Corbyn in on a temporary basis ..she wont join a coalition with Labour or the SNP ...only with the Tories..Not quite the saviour thought she was varian

varian, revoking article fifty is not going to happen while the Tory Party is in government.

Jo Swinson and the rest of the Liberal Democrats will have to join the Labour Party and the SNP in support of a Temporary Unity government to witness any chance of article fifty being revoked.

In short, Jo Swinson needs to get off her high horse and join the real world if she wishes to see the above and the second referendum that you so long stated you wished to see come about.

We could still Revoke Article 50, any time when we have not left the EU. No permission required from the EU.

If the European Union decided they will not grant Britain an extension of article fifty beyond October 31st there would be nothing this nation could do about that decision, we would be out.

However, with one in three British manufacturing companies relocating into Europe and their suppliers relocating with them, I believe that the twenty-seven European member states may well decide it is in their interests to keep all the uncertainty in Britain going.

In the financial service sector, Billions of pounds are being moved out of Britain each week at present, which is another reason Europe may feel the present situation is playing to their advantage.

Media links to above:-
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

www.independent.ie/world-news/nearly-800-billion-of-assets-moved-to-europe-due-to-brexit-uncertainty-37688158.html

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/great-brexit-insurance-migration-shifts-75-billion-from-london

Sorry for the tardy reply Humpty no link just listening to radio 4 OM my drive into work. I believe is was Macron who said there would be no more extensions? It got me thinking on my drive our laws are not their laws and I wondered if they decide that as from 31st we are out what can we do about it?