33 days to go .... What’s the Brexit plan?

What the EU and the RoI need to realise is that even in their best scenario, an extension will only lead to an election, and in that election the MP’s who are frustrating us from leaving, who lied to get elected by promising to honour the referendum result will be deselected at a GE.

Many of them know this already and would rather not stand than face the voters. If the EU wants a deal their best option is now as the next UK parliament will be a leave parliament ... and an election is coming soon.

First time I’ve heard of a Nobel peace prize recipient being described as ‘bonkers’.

I trust that Lord Trimble has an excellent grasp of the situation as a whole!

I think he's going senile.

Why would the EU be that bothered who forms the next UK government or even whether there's a deal before the UK leaves?

The EU has already made contingency plans, which they've published regularly and been quite transparent about them. The 27 countries are in a much stronger position than the UK.

The impression I have from reading foreign press and watching interviews is that the EU doesn't particularly want the UK to leave, but they'll cope if the UK really has made up its mind. They won't find it that difficult to move forward.

Meanwhile, the UK is still going to be left with the problems of Ireland, Gibraltar, its citizens living in the EU … and that's before it can even start negotiating fishing rights, trading agreements, etc etc. Anybody who thinks the economy isn't going to take a massive hit is living in cloud cuckoo land, even if we do escape food/medicine shortages and riots in the streets.

It makes absolutely no sense to leave the withdrawal agreement until after the UK has left. There will be no incentive at all for the EU to give anything.

How difficult is it for people to understand that there is no such thing as a "clean break"? Arrrggghhh!

Of course there's a "deal" in May's withdrawal agreement!! What on earth do you think a deal is quizqueen?

Maybe it was above your paygrade to be given the responsibility of a vote Urmstongran.

WTO rules would mean that Irish milk costs something like an extra 11p a litre, which would push up the price of milk and dairy products. Farmers are already working with very tight profit margins and a number of them would inevitably go out of business.

History tells us that a poor economic situation leads to social and political unrest. That's the big danger because there are enough extremists still operating in Ireland to attract the disaffected, who will look for any excuse for new recruits.

Ooh ... that was nasty growstuff. Maybe it was above your paygrade to be given the responsibility of a vote Urmstongran

Why DO some posters have to get so mean?

The Scottish Court seems to have accepted PM Johnson's undertaking to request an extension if no deal has been approved by 19 October. I can't see that they could have done anything else once he had agreed, in court, to obey the law.

It also seems that there is going to be an appeal and that Lord Pentlaw has indicated it would be wholly unacceptable if Johnson has deceived the court. I don't know but I presume he would be in contempt in that case. Lord Pentlaw quoted the Advocate General's note of argument which said:

"As already noted, the Prime Minister is well aware of his duty to obey the law, including the frustration principle, and will continue to be advised in the usual way as to the lawfulness of his proposed actions."

I thought you’d left for the foreseeable GGMk3
I knew you’d miss us!
?

I think Boris fully intends to comply with the law.

I left while Boris's barking set off the followers. I did think it had calmed down. I may be wrong

Interestingly UG there was a piece on Politics Live. They have been looking at the Brexit and anti-Brexit closed groups on FB and found all sorts of horrible threats and even "incitement to violence" comments from the members of them. More, it seems, from the pro-Brexit groups and more graphic from those too.

What a world

Glad I never joined FB then! Never been influenced which way to vote either - a win-win!

It's a bit shocking, isn't it? I am on FB and in I don't know how many closed groups. Some are related to health issues but mainly the groups are ones that discuss such subversive issues as overlockers, sewing machines, embroidery machines, hand sewing/embroidery and quilting.

It got a bit feisty last year when some people didn't think the gifts in the Advent Calendar from their favourite sewing channel came up to scratch but they are generally so helpful and encouraging I wouldn't be without them. Now it feels like they are next door to some guy checking his noose!

If GN gets more like the worst of FB I would leave again. MK3 on the end of my name is because it has become unhealthy at times and I stayed away for quite a while but I have a feeling there would be no MK4 if it got like that.

Well I hope you stay GGMk3
?
If nothing else it will mean that GN has managed to remain robust but respectful.

From the Guardian today:

''The UK’s fishing fleets could face a de facto blockade within 48 hours of a no-deal Brexit, MPs have been told.

Representatives of the fishing industry said it was “a bit of an understatement” to describe the UK’s preparations for no deal as “a shambles”.

Not only is the country not ready, but there are not enough vets to stamp paperwork for every boatload of fish, which would be mandatory in a no-deal scenario, MPs heard.

“You could realistically be looking at the UK fishing fleet, certainly the fleet that’s catching exportable products, tied up within 48 hours of a no-deal Brexit,” said Terri Portmann, a marine consultant.

If trucks carrying perishable goods were caught in queues at Dover, this would have a knock-on effect at the daily fish auctions, with hauliers unable to pick up loads, she said.

“Would it not be an irony that the UK fishing fleet, who loyally, almost unanimously, voted for Brexit, got tied up because the government didn’t help and intervene to make sure the exports they so heavily rely on could continue,” she said.''

I do wonder how many Brexiters know that it is the British Government that allocates fishing quotas, and not the EU at all.

Under 10 metre boats represent 77% of the UK fishing fleet- and yet they have access to less than 2% of the quotas allocated!

''One major issue is that UK quota can be sold to companies outside of the UK, as long as they can demonstrate a ‘clear economic link’ to the country. Foreign fishing companies can then operate in UK waters in boats ‘flagged’ as British.

Unearthed’s investigation found that in England around half of fishing quota is held by Dutch, Icelandic and Spanish companies.''

2️⃣2️⃣ days now

And it seems 2 million EU citizens are showing more faith in Britain than a weak useless remainer HoC.

Latest 2nd EURef polls

SURVATION SEP 25
Leave 45%
Remain 51%
Don't know 4%

YOUGOV SEP 20
Leave 37%
Remain 46%
Wouldn't vote/dk 17

KANTAR SEP 9
Leave 34%
Remain 37%
Wouldn't vote/dk 28%

DELTAPOLL SEP 4
Leave 40%
Remain 46%
Dk 14%

PANELBASE SEP 6
Leave 45%
Remain 52%
Dk 3%

Is this why the leavers are frightened of a Peoples' Vote?

of course- it is very clear.

Didn’t most of the polls in 2016 predict a vote to Remain? I recall Remainers at the time were most complacent and then horrified when the result was out!

Polls? Nah. I think people lie when asked.

It is heartening to see that after the 21- now another 50 broad church conservatives are saying 'enough- and we won't support Boris with this. Bravo.

Tory MPs react with fury to talk of no-deal Brexit manifesto promise

More than 50 MPs could refuse to stand at election if no-deal pledge is in manifesto.

However, Michel Barnier just now:

“If there is goodwill on both sides, I think an agreement is still possible.”

Blair excellent on Andrew Neil show.

Urmstongran, still possible but only if we have a realistic, working, solution for the Irish border.