Nobel laureate economist says there is ZERO chance Brexit will leave the UK better off

Tbis latest poll reflects the real "will of the people" and has done for almost three years.

Survation Poll

Remain. 54%

Leave. 46%

I've heard very little about trade in services, which make up the UK's most valuable export.

It's not just about compliance, but tariffs. There are literally hundreds of them to be negotiated with many different countries, including all the "new" markets we've been promised. Professor Michael Dougan reckons that historically a single trade agreement has taken four to seven years to negotiate.

Meanwhile, World Trade Organisation tariffs are so punitive that they will make British meat exports prohibitively expensive, even with a devalued pound. Tariffs on milk and other dairy products will inevitably lead to bankruptcies on the Irish border, where farmers rely on seamless and tariff-free trade.

Negotiations with EU countries can't even start until a Withdrawal Agreement is agreed.

Dominic Cummings has told a meeting that he expects the last weeks of October to be spent in the courts.

MaizieD
But they would be compliant with trade deals negotiated by the EU.
I suppose the point would be wether UK/trading partners would want. to retain the same processes or modify. The US already trades under EU terms.

????

John Crace
@JohnJCrace

Let's try to make sense of this. The govt sends non-papers to the EU. When they are leaked they turn out to be non-non-papers that everyone rubbishes. So now the govt is trying to knock up a new version of a non-non-non paper

If the UK remained compliant with the EU they wouldn't be able to do a deal with the US.

One idea a day at the moment, all with the hope that the EU can eventually be blamed.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen

Anyone who turned off the media at 11pm last night and turned it back on now will have missed an entire Irish border proposed "solution" just come and go

MaizieD
I do recognise that current EU formed trade deals will lapse. My point is why should new deals take years when effectively our trading processes would be still EU processes (unless it was decided to change them dramatically, which I can’t see). The UK should be immediately be compliant and so would not need years to align.

Some thoughts on brexit

Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
If MPs agree a withdrawal agreement before an extension is secured they leave Government free to No Deal. So they won't. If Government wants MPs to vote for a withdrawal agreement it must agree an extension now, expiring on ratification of the withdrawal agreement.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
The UK seriously is suggesting that the solution to the Irish border issue is to create three borders instead of one

Robert Peston
@Peston
You've probably got this from someone else already, but I am told that at a meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party tonight MPs of the left and right, and in Leave and Remain seats, were "unanimous that Brexit must be resolved BEFORE an election either through...

This makes absolute sense to me

Labour

Very encouraging reports from the PLP last night.
It is in the national interest and party interest to resolve #Brexit before any General Election.
The way forward is a confirmatory referendum in which the Labour Party campaigns to #Remain in the EU.

Johnson’s Government has been desperately trying to find a way around the Irish backstop, which they know none of the ERG or DUP will accept, meaning that any deal will fail in Parliament.

They have come up with the idea of what they are calling “customs clearance zones”.
The idea being that goods are checked and cleared at particular sites, and their movement then monitored by GPS.

However it appears that this idea, always supposing it is workable and there are serious questions over its viability, has not gone down well with the Irish government or business representatives in NI. SDLP leader said that any form of physical barrier poses a security and economic risk.

Angela McGowan director of CBI in NI. tweeted
Angela McGowan
@angela_mcgowan

Hard infrastructure in N Ireland at this stage of the negotiations? Such proposals are an absolute disgrace. Suggesting U.K. govt doesn’t take NI’s economy or peace process seriously!

The director of NI retail consortium said that these proposals show that Johnson’s government is not listening to business.

To come up with such a proposal at this stage of the negotiating process must indeed have Brussels banging its head against a brick wall.

It is quite unbelievable that Johnson would consider this to be remotely acceptable to anyone in both the Irelands.

Day6 and Joelsnan

Just one of you ask an expert in making trade deals "How long do trade deals take to negotiate and agree?"

When we leave the EU there will be no trade deals in place because every deal we have, all over the world, we have as a member state of the EU. Once we are no longer a member state every single one of those deals lapses. We may have a few agreements with a few countries rolled over, for the time being, but most countries will want to negotiate fresh deals; on more advantageous terms to themselves if they possibly can.

As for WTO, it's not a trade deal. It's bare minimum rules for trading with other countries. Every country in the WTO organisation makes trade deals with other nations and gets away from WTO rules as much as they possibly can. There are lots of other trading blocs in the world, the EU just happens to be the biggest and best.

I haven't the strength to address any more of your points...

What I don't understand about this presumption of years and years to agree a trade deal is:
Countries in the rest of the World who want to trade with the EU negotiate on the terms of compliance, meeting the EU standards etc.
The UK would, as a former but recently resigned member still be compliant, so why would it take years.
If the EU find UK non compliant then it will be their policies and procedures that are at fault.

grapefruitpip

"There is nowhere where everyone is white well dressed speaks in BBC English and lives fairytale lives

I beg to differ paddyann, although, I have never visited this fabled land there are some GN, who do infact live there.

I'm intrigued, where is this place, since some GN do live there I presume you are thinking of a real place?

That is what the years and years of negotiations will be about. That and all the other trade deals with the rest of the world.

We already trade with countries outside the EU. We're already in the WTO, as is the EU.

We will be trading differently not standing still because we don't already have contracts and deals in place.

There will be a period of transition and negotiation, obviously, that is a given, but it will hurt member states of the EU too if Brussels decides to play hard-ball with the UK. The world is looking on.

Protection of employment rights and environmental standards will start to disappear pretty quickly

Why?

We have transferred laws from Brussels to UK statute books and as far as I know, the UK has always been extremely hot on ensuring employment rights are in place.

Environmental standards. Why all of a sudden will ours suffer? Are we going to become some sort of unenlightened nation just because Brussels has lost jurisdiction over us?

We are not a hopeless third world country. We are very clued up on our rights and standards and have been for as long as I've been working.

If we have implemented good practices because of our EU membership they will be retained. This is 2019 - people have expectations and governments are held accountable. We are not going backwards into the dark ages just because we leave a so called trading bloc.

and THEN negotiate a trade deal with Brussels?

That is what the years and years of negotiations will be about. That and all the other trade deals with the rest of the world.

We are faced with years and years of negotiations and the sooner we thrash out an agreement with the EU, the sooner we can start the real business of creating some kind of future outside the EU.

WHY growstuff should we be faced with years and years of negotiations"?

We all want to create a future outside of the EU - so rather than allow this Remainer House of Commons hijack the Brexit process, why don't we end the stupidity that keeps us deadlocked, leave and THEN negotiate a trade deal with Brussels? We will negotiate on a level playing field too and it will be more amicable, not this stupid game of cat and mouse.

That won't be allowed to happen because of those MPs in the HOC who will not accept the result of the referendum, or respect democracy.

We want a relationship with the EU, and amicable one which doesn't cost us billions in order to trade with member states.

The EU has already said "take it or leave it" the HOC doesn't want the deal - three times it has rejected it - so this Westminster fighting and putting obstacles in the way is getting us nowhere fast - just ramping up the angry feeling in the UK. What purpose does it serve?

Does it serve some political party's to be at the throats of others? Is that the game, to preserve stalemate?

Moving on and forward has to be the priority of Parliament. If it continues to keep us stuck in this no-man's land we will know their game is about far more than EU membership.

Joelsnan The Infacts report (link above) says:

His new report, which was enthusiastically backed by Rees-Mogg, also assumes that all the safety, environmental and other standards currently imposed on imported goods from the rest of the world would be removed. That’s bad news for consumers. Is the food you’re eating safe? What about the toy your child is playing with?

When the economy is pressurised by unlimited competition from the rest of the world and cheap unregulated imports flood in after a No Deal Brexit, those market forces will squeeze employers and they won’t be able to afford the wages and employment protection that we enjoy now.

Once we’re out of the EU (especially with a No Deal Brexit) we’re going to be in a much more competitive environment. Protection of employment rights and environmental standards will start to disappear pretty quickly.

mostlyharmless
Why, when EU employment law was basically UK employment law adopted by the EU and tweaked (working time directive comes to mind) would our current employment laws disappear?
Have we become such a snowflake society that we could not challenge our MPs?
To make the country successful the last thing a government post Brexit should do would be to alienate its workforce.

Do you feel that you could answer any of my points, Hetty?

It’s true the economist Patrick Minford does think Brexit would be good for Britain’s economy.
BUT...... it would destroy our agriculture and manufacturing industry. Jobs don’t matter if the City is making loads of money! Employment rights would disappear.

a report by economist Patrick Minford and his “Economists for Free Trade” outfit. It wants to unilaterally abolish all our trade tariffs with the rest of the world after Brexit. That would decimate our farming and manufacturing industries, forced to suddenly compete with global giants. Minford is relaxed about this. During the referendum he wrote that Brexit should “eliminate manufacturing”.
infacts.org/as-brexiters-mask-slips-the-ugly-truth-is-revealed/

Growstuff, as it happens I am usually a Labour voter. However, I don't slavishly follow the party where Brexit is concerned. Unlike JC, I don't change my mind on a whim (or pretend to). I don't vote from self interest either but out of concern for others. Again, my vote was not all about economics or the pound in my pocket - I have quite enough. If I didn't agree with the result - I wouldn't expect everyone to vote again!

Continued economic growth is often seen as the complete answer to all our problems. There's the 'trickle down' theory that everyone will benefit - but where's the evidence? Of course, growth is often incompatible with environmental concerns. If we fail to take them seriously, there is no bright future (or future at all). The only sustainable future will be nothing like the past.

Historically we've had the rise and fall of farming, manufacturing, service and information industries, all still important but next the spotlight's on environmental issues and solutions. The UK financial sector alone is unique and powerful too. We have no need to belong to the EU. The only certain thing is change, so there's no point in stagnating and resisting change.

Freed from EU restrictions and penalties, we have a better chance of change for the overall good. We'll have the flexibility to adapt to our own economy and more opportunity to resolve inequalities without our expensive 'ball and chain'. The minimum wage and taxation will have to increase, however unpopular, and we need a new focus on education, housing and services befitting our country, one of the richest in the world!