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Nobel laureate economist says there is ZERO chance Brexit will leave the UK better off

(64 Posts)
GagaJo Sun 29-Sep-19 21:30:24

SO. Don't believe 'Leavers' if you don't want to. This guy is THE expert.

varian Sun 29-Sep-19 22:10:35

But the British people don't believe in experts- or do we????

Urmstongran Sun 29-Sep-19 22:15:41

I know the Independent newspaper though and it takes its own slant. Remain all the way through like a stick of rock. It has organised and funded many of the anti Brexit protests in London.

Barmeyoldbat Sun 29-Sep-19 22:16:21

Well thats why some of us want to remain but it will just fall on deaf ears.

Hetty58 Sun 29-Sep-19 22:17:16

Those who voted leave didn't do so because they believed Britain would magically be better off financially (especially in the short term) anyway - so it's all a bit silly!

growstuff Sun 29-Sep-19 22:18:25

So what did they believe?

varian Sun 29-Sep-19 22:21:44

Analysis of national newspapers in 2016 found that The Independent and the "i" were the only balanced newspapers, giving equal weight to both sides of the brexit argument.

M0nica Sun 29-Sep-19 22:32:35

Writing as an economist and a Remainer, while I tend to agree with Paul Krugeman, - and his field of specialism is international trade, nevertheless, not all eminent economists agree with him.

Patrick Minford, Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School has spoken often and frequently defending Brexit and chairs 'Economists for Free Trade, a Brexit supporting pressure group who argues that Brexit could boost the economy to a tune of £135 billion. Quite a few econmic professors and city gurus are on the board of this group.

Now I have argued the Leaver case for them. I hope they will accept that most Remainers share my generous spirit in givng them support where they are entitled to it and that they will now be equally open-minded in

paddyann Sun 29-Sep-19 22:36:52

they believed in amagical place where they grew up..only it never existed except in their minds.Britannian DOESN'T rule the waves ,we have hardly any ships or planes to put on them ..and Lizzie cant be saved she at an age where she WILL die sooner rather than later .There is nowhere where everyone is white well dressed speaks in BBC English and lives fairytale lives.THATS all sad so many think it was ever real

Hetty58 Sun 29-Sep-19 22:38:04

GagaJo, beware of dodgy sources, this guy is 'the expert' at getting things wrong - read and digest!:

Hetty58 Sun 29-Sep-19 23:08:27

Growstuff, economists love trends, especially projecting past trends into the future. Therefore, they tend towards getting things dramatically wrong.

Some leave voters are atypical. There are a significant number of highly educated, high achieving and earning professionals, who, like myself, are liberal-minded and have no wish to perpetuate our deeply divided (and dangerous) society. We voted for change.

MaizieD Sun 29-Sep-19 23:15:42

who, like myself, are liberal-minded and have no wish to perpetuate our deeply divided (and dangerous) society.

Aha, have we struck gold here?

As a highly educated, high achieving and earning, liberal minded professional, Hetty58 could you explain why you feel that the EU has perpetuated a deeply divided and dangerous society in the UK?

(Or am I just reading your post wrongly?)

M0nica Sun 29-Sep-19 23:20:01

Hetty58 There is nothing dodgy about Paul Krugeman. But obviously there will be people who disagree with him. Quora is a merely a question and answer site and the author of this report disgreeing with Krugeman is not an academic. No doubt an excellent software engineer, which is his profession, and entitled to disagree with Krugeman but not of sufficient weight to seriously challenge him..

Now, had you searched further you would have found the Economists for Free Trade, led by the very highly regarded Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School, Patrick Minford. He would certainly disagree with Krugeman as would many of the other professional economists on the board of that group.

But even that would not make Krugeman, or the site Gagjo recommended dodgy. It just shows that people of equal academic eminence in the same subject can disagree with each other - and no more than that.

Joelsnan Sun 29-Sep-19 23:27:25

Your attempts at sarcasm do not reflect kindly on you.

Hetty58 Sun 29-Sep-19 23:44:05

Really MOnica? Krugeman doesn't argue in a logical, academic way, though, does he?

M0nica Sun 29-Sep-19 23:49:34

Economists argue and disagree with each other worse than lawyers. He has won a Nobel prizefor his economics. He would not have got that if he got things wrong all the time.

MaizieD Sun 29-Sep-19 23:50:16

I genuinely would like to know Hetty's rationale for her Leave vote.

growstuff Sun 29-Sep-19 23:52:36

Hetty I would be grateful if you could explain how exactly you think that Brexit will lead to a less deeply divided and dangerous society.

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 00:11:48

Hetty I've read your link and I really don't agree that it can be claimed that Krugman doesn't argue in a logical, academic way.

Krugman identifies as Keynesian, which Cochrane does not. Apparently that article was written in response to a criticism by Krugman of Cochrane's work. To me, it doesn't really seem very logical and academic itself.

My understanding of economics isn't good enough to argue who is right and who is wrong. However, I do know that Cochrane is considered the maverick compared with Krugman.

Hetty58 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:33:22

Aha, MaizieD and Growstuff (I've been working) you'd like to know my thoughts! Rather than a 'better off or not' vote it was a political one:

My informed decision to vote leave is about political independence, national sovereignty and true democracy. It’s being able to change the lawmakers if you don’t like what they’re doing. It's all about who gets to make the final decisions and looking to the future with easier, quicker trade worldwide and more opportunities for non-EU migrants. Of course, you may be quite happy with the idea of an integrated federal Europe. I am not! I see it as a ball and chain. There remains, of course, a vital need to cooperate (on both sides) - as a 'non-member'.

What happened to mutual respect, tolerance and understanding of different viewpoints? I don't see much of it on here. I strongly object to being called a racist just because I voted leave. I believe that immigration should be controlled (as it is in many countries) to allow for planning of public services. I want far more equality in the UK as the growing divide is dangerous to our society. Finally, yes, I have considered the future that my children and grandchildren will inherit if we remain under the control of Europe.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:43:54

I know the Independent newspaper though and it takes its own slant. Remain all the way through like a stick of rock.

Yup. Biased press again.

We must remember both the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England both said the Leave vote would be closely followed by all sorts of economic disasters and unemployment. They were both embarrassingly wrong - as wrong as anyone could be.

Forgive me if I continue to wait and see. There are very few certainties in life, but some Remainers seem to want us to live under a dark cloud and do not have the wherewithal to imagine a decent life in the UK after Brexit.

We can predict gloom if we want, just as 'experts' Osborne and Carney did.

Carry on predicting a hellish life post Brexit . It suits the Remainer narrative, doesn't it?

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 13:44:28

Who called you a racist?

I don't understand this comment at all " I want far more equality in the UK as the growing divide is dangerous to our society." How in realistic, practical, tangible terms will leaving the EU make UK society more equal and "less dangerous"?

growstuff Mon 30-Sep-19 13:45:29

Well, now you've become a Marxist sympathiser Day6, I must admit to being a tad concerned.

Day6 Mon 30-Sep-19 13:45:51

Good post Hetty58

I too fear the future if we remain in the EU.

kittylester Mon 30-Sep-19 13:47:08

But, what does going on and on about it achieve?