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What can we expect from this government.

(27 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Sat 14-Dec-19 09:31:11

I thought this interesting so am copying it all. Agree or, with reasoned argument, disagree, but I think you will find it interesting too.

The pragmatic Johnson agenda
Posted: 13 Dec 2019 04:11 AM PST

I have been in discussion with a number of people about the election result.

Many I spoke to are deeply despondent. There has been a common line that we will be heading for hard Brexit / hard austerity / pro-US policy/aggression with Scotland / hard constitutional reform. Britannia will be Unchained.

I agree on hard constitutional reform. The five-year parliament act will go. So will many rights to judicial review. It will be made much harder to vote. There will be boundary reform/gerrymandering, and more. That's because Johnson's game from day one will be winning the next election. It is all he cares about.

But for precisely the same reason he may well not do the rest. Johnson has no political backbone. He has no principles at all. He is just in this for him.

So he will not hard Brexit. Getting a deal done by 31/12/2020 is all that matters to him. So he will do whatever the EU asks. If that upsets Trump, so be it. He can live with that. No one will notice.

And he will let Scotland go, because he sees no way of winning it again, and so it helps his majority when the SNP will never align with him but it might with Labour.

And as for austerity, I have no doubt there will be a lot of it. But he will do vote-winning stuff that might look like a Green Deal (or some term like it). This will be flood defences in Doncaster, for example.

And there will be hospital spending in the ex-Red Wall to make sure it stays Blue.

He can do this because he has a majority. Watch the ERG fade - and expect Rees Mogg to have a decidedly low profile from now on. He'll be kept in Cabinet, but well out of sight.

The point is - and he gets this in a way few other politicians do - winning matters. Government can do a lot or little. But even when it does a little - his inclination - it stops someone else - Labour in this case - doing anything. And that is his long term goal. So he will do enough to prevent Labour from getting back.

And such is his pragmatism - as seen in October - he won't care who he offends to achieve that, and in how own party the chance of opposition right now is low.

I do not change my mind on how bad things will be. But will it be economically as far right as we might expect? I doubt it.

That said, there will be no Green New Deal.

Public services will suffer.

And many people will not have the support they need.

But every element of the media will be aligned to say he is doing all he can.

That will not be true. But if I was Cummings that is what I would do now. And Cummings, like Johnson, is all about winning. And this is how they will win the next one.

The article can be found here

Grany Sat 14-Dec-19 09:48:25

So no properly funded NHS no social care

We only have 10 years to save the planet that's when the tipping point reached.

Public services will suffer more

Poor people will get poorer

Not enough houses being built

He will just do a little just enough to stay in power.

We won't be able to get him out

Did people not know this?

Alexa Sat 14-Dec-19 09:59:50

There will have to be very very 'soft' Brexit so Northern Ireland can stay peaceful. Let us pray it does.

There must absolutely be no border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, and no border between the island of Ireland and England. this is impossible with departure from Europe as departure from Europe is all about borders. So the border must be as soft as possible.

So I do hope Johnson finds a way to make leaving Europe less harmful to Northern Ireland. I am hopeful although I cannot see how Johnson can do it. I fear for the Northern Irish people.

Alexa Sat 14-Dec-19 10:03:26

GracesGran, It's possible Johnson might learn to be responsible, as personalities can and do change.

GracesGranMK3 Sat 14-Dec-19 10:22:23

True Alexa. The OP was one man's view, but a man who has the sort of contacts and information I don't have. We do know quite a bit more about what motivates Mr Johnson than we once did however and a lot of the above rings true to me. I hope it isn't but am prepared that it may be.

GagaJo Sat 14-Dec-19 10:26:51

Anyone who knows or has known BJ knows he isn't capable of being a functioning PM. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows Cummings is in effect now our PM.

I'd say the article is pretty spot on. And the next election will be even more of a puppet show than this one. We are not a democracy anymore.

Oldwoman70 Sat 14-Dec-19 10:43:36

Having looked him up it appears he is a Labour supporter so obviously this article is hardly unbiased.

Missfoodlove Sat 14-Dec-19 11:00:05

The article was written by a man who admitted to setting up a company in Ireland to avoid UK taxes.

J52 Sat 14-Dec-19 11:12:07

Alexa, post 10.03
You say ‘ no border between the island of Ireland and England’.
What about the Welsh and Scottish ports?

Rufus2 Sat 14-Dec-19 11:41:19

We are not a democracy anymore
Gaga; aren't you going to China?

GracesGranMK3 Sat 14-Dec-19 11:50:54

Is any point of view unbiased oldwoman? Apparently not if you ask a psychologist. That's one of the things students have to learn to take into account at university when they are doing research.

I think he is actually a Green supporter but he is also an accountant and a political economist. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK.

He was a co-founder of the Tax Justice Network and Green New Deal, as well as the Fair Tax Mark. He is the founder-director of the Corporate Accountability Network.

According to International Tax Review Richard was the 7th most influential person in global tax in 2013. In 2016 Richard was in the same journal's Global Top 50 in tax. In 2017 he was ninth on the same list. His ideas for "country by country reporting" is being seen as a goal by many countries.

Does this mean anything? It means he is knowledgable in areas I know nothing about and that he is held in high esteem by his peers. I find I like to gather knowledge and would do so from someone with differing views from his if people offer them from attributable and esteemed sources - sadly that does not happen as often as I would like. I still try to keep an open mind knowing that where there is one view, however well-founded, there is likely to be an equal and opposite one somewhere.

EllanVannin Sat 14-Dec-19 12:00:25

What no politician has ever done and is not likely to ever do either is/ was increase the age pension in line with Europe.
We are near the bottom of the league when it comes to WORLD pension !!

Ramblingrose22 Sat 14-Dec-19 12:04:03

I expect Johnson won't know what to do first! He has made a lot of promises to people in the "Red Wall" areas and will have to deliver more than Brexit to get them to vote blue again. If he is really a "One Nation" Tory he will know that.

The Labour Party need to decide whether they really want power again when they elect a new leader. If Scotland leaves the union they will have to win the Red Wall votes back as well as offering something to the "middle" classes.

The likely contenders suggested so far have more brains than Corbyn and will work this out. I am waiting to see who puts themselves forward. Someone is already being groomed as the next leader that the unions and Momentum will support.

It must be hard for Corbyn to carry on for too long knowing how disliked he is. We all have our own "amour propre". When he said he had done the best he could that says it all...........

EllanVannin Sat 14-Dec-19 12:06:16

By not remaining in the EU, we've lost out---------again.
Sweden receive something like £25,000 a year against our measly £7,500, whether Sweden's includes occupational pension I don't know, but it's possible.

Missfoodlove Sat 14-Dec-19 12:43:40

He is a tax expert who used his knowledge to evade UK taxes!!!
Richard Murphy is not to be trusted.

GracesGranMK3 Sat 14-Dec-19 15:49:46

He is a tax expert who used his knowledge to evade UK taxes!!! Richard Murphy is not to be trusted.

I actually think people should be charged with slander for saying things they are unable to prove or rather libel when it is published as a post is on a forum.

janipat Sat 14-Dec-19 15:55:46

I actually think people should be charged with slander for saying things they are unable to prove or rather libel when it is published as a post is on a forum.

Hmmmmm seems Richard Murphy has been guilty of just that.

janipat Sat 14-Dec-19 15:56:50

Just to add I have no idea whether he's guilty of Missfoodlove's accusation, but he is guilty of having libelled someone.

GrandmaMoira Sat 14-Dec-19 16:19:09

This article seems highly likely. Johnson is only out for power for Johnson, nothing else.

GracesGranMK3 Sat 14-Dec-19 16:24:02

I thought so too but the little pickers on here are, as usual, attacking the man, not the argument. Maybe they are just to stupid to try.

endlessstrife Sat 14-Dec-19 16:35:18

At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who or what we vote for. They’re all liars and deceivers. That’s what politics is all about. That’s why we have a Monarch. She, hopefully, is our safety net.

growstuff Sat 14-Dec-19 16:47:37

Oldwoman70 Richard Murphy most definitely is not a supporter of the Labour Party.

growstuff Sat 14-Dec-19 16:54:50

Looking at Wiki, it would appear the Murphy set up a company over 30 years. Once he realised the implications, he became a campaigner against tax avoidance and evasion. He also apologised for libelling Lord Ashcroft ten years ago.

BTW He holds Irish nationality.

How about researching a bit more about his past and becoming a follower of his blog, rather than picking up snippets to sneer at him?

janipat Sat 14-Dec-19 17:25:45

picking up snippets to sneer at him?

if that was aimed at me growstuff then I just found it ironic that GracesGranMK3 was advocating charges of libel when the subject of what she considered a libellous post was actually guilty of that very offence. I made no comment on the argument and actually agree with much of it.

Grany Sat 14-Dec-19 18:20:19

Well it didn't take long did it!

The day after the election it was announced that every A&E target had failed, and Damian Green MP said on LBC radio that we should have an insurance system to pay for our care.

Strap yourself in it's gonna be a rocky ride