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Covid information

(14 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Fri 26-Jun-20 08:41:22

In the absence of the government daily press, I wonder if it would be useful for us all to keep an eye on what covid is doing and where there may be an issue.

I will get my figures from the daily analysis by Kings College.

I know other people are taking part in this and I would highly recommend anyone to join and feed your information into the system.

Be pleased too for information from other evidenced based sources. No point in posting stuff that is just newspaper talk as that won’t help at all.

So today Kings College says

The daily new cases have stopped falling for the first time in a couple of months

‍According to these figures there are currently 2,341 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 20 June 2020 (excluding care homes). These figures were based on 14,422 swab tests from 7 to 20 June, including 56 positive swabs.
For the past month the number of daily new cases has been falling week on week making this the first time the data has stopped falling. The data shows that the Midlands is now the region of England with the largest number with 716 daily new cases. This week's figures also point to the return of a slight North / South divide as the Midlands, North West and North East all now have higher numbers of daily new cases compared to the southern regions like the South West and London which have very low numbers.
If people are interested you can go on the site and look for your areas figures.

130284 people are predicted to have covid in the U.K.

My area Brighton and Hove R rate is 0.5%

dragonfly46 Fri 26-Jun-20 08:45:07

Good news my DS and GC live in Hove.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 26-Jun-20 08:49:36

Next door Adur is 0.3%

Worthing 0.3%

Arun 0.1%

geekesse Fri 26-Jun-20 08:50:46

And for all those who thing schools going back is not an issue, see this graph. The numbers are, as yet, small, but if it doubles every week, we’ll soon be in a mess again.

MaizieD Fri 26-Jun-20 09:02:15

WRT schools going back, apparently the government guidance now says that there is no need for children to be socially distancing.

(In fact, it said that there's never been a need for them to socially distance. To the huge shock and angry of teachers and head teachers alike...who spent hours and hours rearranging their classrooms and other school spaces)

Pantglas2 Fri 26-Jun-20 09:10:05

Conwy county at .5, Gwynedd .5 and Anglesey up to .8 , after 200 chicken factory workers tested positive.

growstuff Fri 26-Jun-20 14:33:19

0.5 is still high, especially if it's not going down, which means that newly infected people are replacing those who have recovered or died.

It means that if you go into an area where there are 200 people (eg a cinema or a high street), one of those people is likely to be infected. If that person happens to stand too close to you and says something to you while staring you in the face, there's a chance you will be infected too.

It needs to be much lower and all contacts traced and isolated as soon as possible (preferably within hours).

growstuff Fri 26-Jun-20 14:38:37

Whitewave 0.5 isn't the R rate for Brighton and Hove. It's the percentage of 20-69 year olds who are currently showing symptoms. If it's not going down, that means that the R rate is 1, ie one person is infecting one other person. If it continues like that, it will never be eradicated. You need to see a steady reduction in the percentage of infected people.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 27-Jun-20 06:33:52

growstuff thank you for that. I obviously didn’t understand what I’m reading.

So daily new cases across UK

2341

Total predicted to have covid in U.K.

127036

This table I’ve copied from Cambridge university figures showing the current R across England
It’s a bit rubbish but I couldn’t get it to work properly. it shows the median figure is just below 1 with the highest being the South West and the lowest being the North East and Yorkshire.

RegionMedian95% CrI (lower)95% CrI (upper)
1East_of_England0.800.601.01
2London0.870.671.12
3Midlands0.820.641.01
4North_East_and_Yorkshire0.760.580.95
5North_West0.840.691.02
6South_East0.770.590.96
7South_West0.940.691.21

Whitewavemark2 Sat 27-Jun-20 06:40:06

So with my knew knowledge🙂

The estimated % of 20-69 year olds with covid in Brighton and Hove has gone done from 0.5 to 0.4.

If you haven’t got access to these figures and want to know what the % is in your area I can give them to you.

I apologise for that rubbish table above. I’ll try to do better next time.

Rosalyn69 Sat 27-Jun-20 06:43:33

Thank you for this. Interesting and helpful.

growstuff Sat 27-Jun-20 09:49:32

Whitewavemark2

So with my knew knowledge🙂

The estimated % of 20-69 year olds with covid in Brighton and Hove has gone done from 0.5 to 0.4.

If you haven’t got access to these figures and want to know what the % is in your area I can give them to you.

I apologise for that rubbish table above. I’ll try to do better next time.

An R rate between 0.7 and 0.9 is far too high to relax restrictions. It doesn't take much to push the value over 1, which then means cases are increasing exponentially again.

Having said that, the R rate doesn't tell the whole story. Although the R rate is high in the South West, there are relatively few cases, so the chances of being infected are much lower in the South West than they are in other parts of the country.

For myself, I've found the percentage showing symptoms more useful. 0.5% means that one in two hundred people 20-69 year olds is infected. That excludes most people in care homes, where it's known the rate is much higher.

I think to myself that if I leave the house, the chances are that one in 200 of the people I see is infected. Even if those showing symptoms are already quarantining themselves, there will be others who are still asymptomatic but infectious.

I know that if I were to do what I usually do on a Saturday morning (go to the market, go to the supermarket, fill up the car), I would easily see 200 people. Sometimes people bump into you or even stop to talk. Any of those people could be infected. Maybe that's OK if you're not too bothered about catching something and are prepared to live with the consequences, but my health conditions mean that I'm just not prepared to take the risk.

Having ventured out once, I won't be going again until almost no people are showing symptoms. Then I'll still be taking every precaution I can.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 28-Jun-20 07:59:15

Daily new cases - the figure is same as yesterday, so I assume it hasn’t been updated.

Predicted total cases in U.K.
123964

Down from yesterday.

Brighton and Hove % of 20-69 yr olds with covid remains at 0.4%

Whitewavemark2 Sun 28-Jun-20 08:01:45

The R growth rate is between 0.7-0.9

Still high.

It doesn’t seem to be moving.