Boris Johnson: no-deal Brexit now a 'strong possibility'

Someone was carrying on about WW2 yesterday I need a rolling eyes emoticon

Lemon, oh I think most of us remember when the colonies became independant, our global influence declined, to be replaced by Chinese exploitation.

Yes we have to negotiate hard but not in bad faith and dishonestly, especially raising the hopes of our own population. The EU have been desperate for a deal that did not compromise their basic principles and have tried for 4 yrs to get there.
If it had been me I would have walked away after 6 months, with hindsight, it would have been far better if they had.

Real days of Empire were very, very long ago David and speaking for myself .....I was way too busy with family life to care about distant colonies.
Chinese exploitation/ influence is a big thing indeed and will affect every country on Earth for the future.
Of course the EU wanted a deal, but so did the UK.It may not be possible now and may even be the better course of action.

I wish they'd just get on with it and we can have conversations about something else!!

THREAD. Just finished Friday zoom with my Brussels group. Much to report. First, a framing point: The summit went all day and all night. All was agreed: budget, environmental goals, Covid19 response. Brexit was discussed for ten minutes. All agreed the mandate is unchanged. 1/

Everyone at the Commission is quite confused. The current offer to the UK is a deal in which IF we align, we get full access. IF, in future, we diverge they limit access or put up (some) tariffs. The UK choosing to go to NO access and FULL tariffs NOW, is incomprehensible. 2/

This has led people to split into two camps: There is one school of thought, that Johnson really is utterly clueless. His behaviour at the UVDL dinner last night (a car crash, apparently), has fed that impression. This makes people not want to do business with this government. 3/

The second school of thought, is that Johnson negotiated in bad faith throughout. That his aim was always No Deal and he simply strung 27 countries along, at the expense of a huge amount of work, effort and expense. This makes them not want to do business with this government. 4/

Note that the conclusion is precisely the same under either theory. That whether idiot or fraudster, Johnson is best kept at arms length. Polling in most EU27 shows that being tough with the UK yields a big favourability boost. So, I'm afraid, nobody is riding to our rescue. 5/

There is also a lot of weird back-channel chat that he might ask for some sort of technical extension at the 11th hour. Nobody puts much stock in it, but they are prepared and have worked up various legal mechanisms, if that happens. 6/

Those involved with negotiations describe two basic category errors. 1. The UK seems to think that the damage of a No Deal to each party is Trade Amount A vs Trade Amount B. It seems oblivious that the UK is not only losing trade but the entire framework under which it trades. 7/

There was not a single person who thought the UK is even semi-prepared. Most think it doesn't even have a clear idea of what is coming. Several cited the fact that the IT system, meant to accommodate border forms in THREE WEEKS, has not even gone live to be Beta-tested yet. 8/

2. The second category error is the UK's belief that Single Market integrity is somehow negotiable. That it's a haggle, during which if the UK says "oh, go on" enough, the EU will eventually reply "oh, alright then". They have run out of ways to explain this cannot happen. 9/

For four years the Commission tried to explain that nothing - no amount of cajoling, sweeteners, or goodwill (of which there is very little) - nothing, can ever produce a deal that can be seen to be better for the UK than it is for members. THIS IS BARNIER'S MANDATE. 10/

And for four years, this is precisely what the UK has demanded. The prize, without buying a ticket. It won't happen. Full and free access to the market is the central offering; the essence of membership. They're not about to start giving it away to third parties. Ever. 11/END

Alex Andreou

“Everyone at the Commission is quite confused. The current offer to the UK is a deal in which IF we align, we get full access. IF, in future, we diverge they limit access or put up (some) tariffs. The UK choosing to go to NO access and FULL tariffs NOW, is incomprehensible. 2/“

That sums it up, incomprehensible
What we export now is fine by them, if in the future we change what we send they reserve the right to say no. That is exactly what every other country says, it has to comply with our rules.

Interesting Whitewavemark2

I've always thought 3 and 4 to be true

Johnson wants no deal but is also completely clueless.

This is a quote from an article written in 2019 “Johnson is backed by speculators who have bet billions on a hard Brexit – and there is only one option that works for them: a crash-out no-deal that sends the currency tumbling and inflation soaring,” Hammond wrote in the Times.' That would be Phil Hammond, former Chancellor. Doesn't this worry anyone?https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/28/boris-johnson-backers-benefit-from-no-deal-brexit-inquiry

Gwen, this topic is not going to go away. Our grandchildren will be living and paying for the repercussions.

And that’s what Johnson’s own sister said was the case.

Yes agreed Daisymae.

My Facebook memory this morning from a year ago was me saying 'It's No Deal Brexit this time next year then' - and that's exactly why. It's always been the plan.

Typical French , they have held out longer for their fishing rights than they did defending their country in WW2

Because fighting for fishing rights is totally exactly the same as your country being invaded. What the heck?

Summerlove

*Typical French , they have held out longer for their fishing rights than they did defending their country in WW2*

Because fighting for fishing rights is totally exactly the same as your country being invaded. What the heck?

But it’s not just about fishing rights the UK is holding out over fishing to get concessions on trade deals.
The EU is saying no

and there is only one option that works for them: a crash-out no-deal that sends the currency tumbling and inflation soaring,” Hammond wrote in the Times.' That would be Phil Hammond, former Chancellor. Doesn't this worry anyone?

I think it's been worrying many people for a long time; it's been posted about on this forum several times before.

The big problem is, "What can we do about it?" and the response is really "Nowt"

I don't know if you've heard James O'Brien's latest rant monologue
( twitter.com/LBC/status/1337380117610450946 )
but at one point he muses on how members of the 'metropolitan elite' managed to convince the 'non-elite' that voting for Brexit was a vote against the metropolitan elite... it's so crazy their motives aren't recognised.

Typical British: thinking other nationalities are inferior to themselves and making nastily generalisations about millions of people ( nb: this is in response to summerloves hate speech)

vegansrock

Typical British: thinking other nationalities are inferior to themselves and making nastily generalisations about millions of people ( nb: this is in response to summerloves hate speech)

I hope you don’t think I wrote hate speech?

I quoted the bold part from earlier in this thread

Summerlove

vegansrock

Typical British: thinking other nationalities are inferior to themselves and making nastily generalisations about millions of people ( nb: this is in response to summerloves hate speech)

I hope you don’t think I wrote hate speech?

I quoted the bold part from earlier in this thread

You're absolutely correct, summerlove, it wasn't you, it was one of the men on this thread.

I'm trying desperately to recall what David0205 wrote that had to be deleted...

That was a few weeks ago Maisie probably being non pc about Semites
But of course no women have every been deleted have they!.

Apologies summerlove I see you were quoting someone else. There’s so much hateful generalisations on here.which if the tables were turned there would be all sorts of nastiness

Did I see Johnson doing a photo shoot on an warship today? Just when I thought I couldn’t feel more embarrassed/ashamed of Johnson. I’m hoping it’s just old footage.

Oh good grief MayBee I hope not. I don't think Johnson works at weekends so fingers crossed we're safe.

Just read this by Matthew Parris and thought he nailed it twitter.com/irwinlon55/status/1337685748267569152?s=20

vegansrock

Apologies summerlove I see you were quoting someone else. There’s so much hateful generalisations on here.which if the tables were turned there would be all sorts of nastiness

Thank you for the apology.

Interesting to hear Lord Patten this morning on Radio 4. He said "I don't think that Mr Johnson is a Conservative, I think he is an English nationalist."

He added "What we're seeing is Boris Johnson on this runaway train of English exceptionalism and heaven knows where it is going to take us in the end"

I feel the same.