Anyone understand why Johnson is so far ahead in the polls?

Sorry Pippa I was referring to growstuff comment about those most likely to vote labour are young renters, that's not a big enough slice of the electorate and they are less likely to vote anyway.
As a centrist myself, my advice to the labour party would be to try to take the centre ground, but many would have seen the lib dems as part of that centre ground so why has their vote collapsed. I do think people are moving to the extremes, I think social media has been partly responsible for that. It is much more tribal than it has ever been in my view.

PippaZ

I'm at home kicking the chair leg because I can't drink wine any more!

?? just think how superior your liver is feeling

What's not a big enough base Galaxy? I'm not sure who you are answering.

I don't see how a centre-ground can disappear. Unless you are suggesting everyone is moving to one extreme or another and I don't think that is true. It would be interesting to know why you do.

That's not a big enough base though so whether labour accept it or not it wont give them electoral success. I think it would be also useful to look at what has happened to the lib dems. Its not just labour who are having problems. The lib dem vote has collapsed, is that just because of Brexit or something to do with the centre ground disappearing.

growstuff

I also think that Labour needs to accept that the demographic of its voters has changed. Those most likely to vote Labour now tend to be young renters with insecure/low paid employment, despite a high level of education.

I think the last paragraph of my post at Wed 05-May-21 17:42:53 means that would have to be taken into account but I do think it is being as the current Labour team plan for the future.

As for PS. They are also more likely to be socially liberal. - only some. Those who are long standing Labour members are more likely to be socially conservative, and always have been. There was always an arguement between the two strands on this it's just that the balance is changing.

Mollygo

Alegrias1

Treads carefully...

The results show that in areas where the average level of education of the electorate is lower, the outcome was more likely to be for Brexit.

Blame who you like for that, but that's how it is.

Wow! So now you know GNs.
If you voted for Brexit you’re uneducated. It’s highly unlikely that all posters on GN voted remain so you’ve now been classified. All hail to the educated remainers.
Leavers, sorry, your degrees, doctorates and other qualifications still mean you're uneducated. In our house we have 2 degrees and a doctorate and a split vote. I’m not going to tell DH how his education doesn’t count.

That's not how averages work.

I'm at home kicking the chair leg because I can't drink wine any more!

PS. They are also more likely to be socially liberal.

I also think that Labour needs to accept that the demographic of its voters has changed. Those most likely to vote Labour now tend to be young renters with insecure/low paid employment, despite a high level of education.

But Gannygangan just about every survey showed as fact that there was a correlation between Brexit voting and educational achievement (not intelligence). How that is interpreted is another matter. I agree with you that people don't like to be reminded because they assume they're being told their stupid, which is why I wrote upthread that there needs to be more understanding of why people think/vote as they do. It is futile and insulting for anyone to claim that they know better.

I’m in Italy with a glass of Negramaro? waiting for the meatballs

If Labour is ever to return to government, it has to appeal to working people. There’s a myth/belief system that the LP cares about the unemployed, benefit claimants, immigrants. lGQT, etc more than working people.

That's interesting Iam64. I think this came from the days when we didn't have full employment. For the short time that we did, it was very reasonable to expect those who could to try to get a job. The thinking then became that if you didn't work it was your fault but this doesn't work unless you have full employment - that doesn't stop both the Tories and the right-wing press from inventing the use of words like "shirkers" sadly.

Again, when we first had disability benefits few people could be given the wonderful treatment we have now - nor did they live so long. We have to decide if we are still prepared to insure everyone so that some may benefit and if we decide yes we need to do it efficiently and at a reasonable level. If we decide no ... we become like America with so many people going bankrupt because of their medical bills.

What I think Labour does get and the Tories don't is that each of our "benefits" costs more if we don't offer them early and well. The Tories, to me, just see them as private industry to make money for some and to offer as little as possible. I do believe Starmer sees that early intervention can save money, save the community and save lifestyles from degenerating and taking families with them. When it come to a GE he needs to be able to present a plan.

Iam64

I’ve been catching up and don’t think it’s too late to respond to PippaZ who reminded me that many LP members and supporters did like Corbyn and his policies. I recall some focus groups who liked the manifesto pledges unless they were told they came from the LP under Corbyn’s leadership. I’m not in the camp who believe the red wall voters , my neighbours, were all brainwashed by the Daily Mail.

If Labour is ever to return to government, it has to appeal to working people. There’s a myth/belief system that the LP cares about the unemployed, benefit claimants, immigrants. lGQT, etc more than working people.

That myth has been deliberately nurtured, along with the north/south, generational and home owning/renting divides.

? ? ?

You're quite right, Alegrias1

And I don't even have wine to blame

I just get all defensive and worry that this sort of comment is causing huge problems. People don't like to be told they aren't as bright as those who voted Remain. It causes division. It doesn't make me feel better to know that the better educated voted to stay.

I went to a private school where I was told I didn't need an education because I'd marry a wealthy man o-0

And I did vote to stay, varian, so I'm not a Brexiteer challenging statistics

But it really doesn't matter now

And in years to come this whole argument will just be history.

We have left the EU.

C'est la vie.

That’s allowed then. I’m in Greece, off to find a honey laden cake and shot of Mataxa. That’s usually late evening but as it’s 8pm here in Greece, I’ll say that’s ok

It was Spanish manzanilla. In my head I'm still in the EU.

Alegrias1, wine at 17.26 on a school day ?????

For the last five years we have had brexiters challenging statistics, being offend by statistics and quoting their personal circumstances as evidence that might refute statistics.

It is all nonsense.

I do not challenge the statistical analysis of the brexit vote that found that the over 65s were most likely to vote Leave just because I am over 65 and voted Remain, as did nearly all of my over 65 friends.

We must accept the facts.

Oh no, hang on, I've read that again.

68% of voters with a degree wanted to remain in the EU

30% of voters with only GCSE or lower wanted to remain in the EU.

Not 2%, 38%.

I've had a glass of wine....

Gannygangan

From the above link

According to YouGov, 68% of voters with a university degree wanted to remain in the EU, while 70% of voters with only GCSE qualifications or lower voted to leave. Those with A levels and no degree were evenly split.

All this smugness for 2%?

You don't have to be smug Gannygangan; it's not obligatory. You must be referring to your feelings as I see no "smugness" on here just a lot of people lashing out because of a set of statistics.

Alegrias1

*than who do*.

That was the worst-constructed sentence I've seen for a while, sorry....

You're forgiven

????

than who do.

That was the worst-constructed sentence I've seen for a while, sorry....

I’ve been catching up and don’t think it’s too late to respond to PippaZ who reminded me that many LP members and supporters did like Corbyn and his policies. I recall some focus groups who liked the manifesto pledges unless they were told they came from the LP under Corbyn’s leadership. I’m not in the camp who believe the red wall voters , my neighbours, were all brainwashed by the Daily Mail.

If Labour is ever to return to government, it has to appeal to working people. There’s a myth/belief system that the LP cares about the unemployed, benefit claimants, immigrants. lGQT, etc more than working people.