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What I think will happen tomorrow

(490 Posts)
suziewoozie Wed 05-May-21 21:12:21

That the SNP will do well
That Labour in Wales will do well
That Laurence Fox and Shaun Bailey will be humiliated in London
That my local council will stay LD
That Labour will hang onto its Mayors and do badly elsewhere

This is not a difficult prediction

suziewoozie Sat 08-May-21 18:05:40

GrannyGravy13

In Nursing Notes they have reported that the percentage of Nurses/Healthcare workers voting Conservative has increased this time.

Here’s the link ( I’m a good PA am I not)

nursingnotes.co.uk/news/politics/two-in-five-healthcare-workers-vote-conservative-in-local-elections/

No detail of how the 1800 respondents were selected and I’d like to have seen a breakdown between the different occupational groups. There’s a link in the link to the survey in 2019.

grandmajet Sat 08-May-21 18:03:24

growstuff, yes you’re right! He went to grammar school via a scholarship. I think I’m biased cos I liked him! I should know better than get into a political thread. ?

suziewoozie Sat 08-May-21 17:57:30

Callistemon

Perhaps it will become a bigger issue before the next GE but that is a long time to wait.

I am surprised, though, that it seems to have been largely forgotten.

I've spoken to a few medical staff recently as well as those in the family and not only are many exhausted after last year, they are now working to try to reduce the backlog of other cases.

Oh goodness - I wonder what will happen before the next .election? And even when it will be? Some are saying 2023. Just the thought of it makes me tired ?. I know from my dd about the efforts of the local Trust to get back to normal and they are very impressive. During the worst of the waves, her department put a lot of extra effort into making medical staff feel as cared for as possible ( and other sections looked after nurses and other staff groups) and I hope this has paid off - feeling valued and respected by your employers is paramount to retention and facilitates obviously better patient care. But that doesn’t obviate the need for a pay rise does it?

GrannyGravy13 Sat 08-May-21 17:48:31

In Nursing Notes they have reported that the percentage of Nurses/Healthcare workers voting Conservative has increased this time.

Callistemon Sat 08-May-21 17:45:52

Perhaps it will become a bigger issue before the next GE but that is a long time to wait.

I am surprised, though, that it seems to have been largely forgotten.

I've spoken to a few medical staff recently as well as those in the family and not only are many exhausted after last year, they are now working to try to reduce the backlog of other cases.

suziewoozie Sat 08-May-21 17:38:03

Callistemon

suziewoozie

Callistemon

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

Yes because it’s unusual times. There’s never been anything like this . I think some of the analysis will be very interesting. Broadly though incumbent governments have succeeded across the 3 nations - that’s relevant as with also most Mayors. London is interesting - I thought he might do it on 1st preferences and Bailey is beyond dire.

It's not what I expected to happen.

Perhaps it's the vaccine bounce.
Certainly I thought voters would make a protest vote about the poor offer to the NHS after their efforts over the past 16 months.

I’m really interested that you thought that - it sadly never crossed my mind. I say sadly because it is sad that I never thought it was an issue that enough people would care about enough for it to influence their vote. The whole pay rise thing has been very muted hasn’t it for ages now. The thing about incumbents being successful is that all 3 nations are in a good place re vaccine roll out as all have succeeded. All 3 are the leaders at a tough time and have been given credit for that by enough voters. I simply voted here on past performance of the LDs - no national issues were relevant for me but I know for lots of people their motivations would and could have been different.

MaizieD Sat 08-May-21 17:36:21

Callistemon

Laurence Fox is marginally ahead of Count Binface, so not quite bottom so far.

Disappointed to hear that.

Count Binface, as I recall, had a great manifesto.

Alegrias1 Sat 08-May-21 17:35:24

Urmstongran

Seems I’m a quicker learner than I give myself credit for Alegrias‼️. ??

wink

Callistemon Sat 08-May-21 17:29:24

Laurence Fox is marginally ahead of Count Binface, so not quite bottom so far.

Urmstongran Sat 08-May-21 17:26:57

Seems I’m a quicker learner than I give myself credit for Alegrias‼️. ??

Callistemon Sat 08-May-21 17:24:59

suziewoozie

Callistemon

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

Yes because it’s unusual times. There’s never been anything like this . I think some of the analysis will be very interesting. Broadly though incumbent governments have succeeded across the 3 nations - that’s relevant as with also most Mayors. London is interesting - I thought he might do it on 1st preferences and Bailey is beyond dire.

It's not what I expected to happen.

Perhaps it's the vaccine bounce.
Certainly I thought voters would make a protest vote about the poor offer to the NHS after their efforts over the past 16 months.

Alegrias1 Sat 08-May-21 17:23:55

Urmstongran

I didn’t think the SNP could get any of the list?

I suppose with the Greens it IS a majority. No change overall then from the last 4 (or is it 5) years. I do think that NS hoped for a majority vote without a coalition with the Greens again to achieve another run at Indy2!

Hooray! I told you to stick at it!

Highly unlikely to get any on the list because of the success in the constituencies.

With the Greens, its a majority of seats held by independence-supporting parties. I've been ranting on for a while about the fact that not only the SNP are pro-independence. Now we'll see how it goes.

suziewoozie Sat 08-May-21 17:23:48

Urmstongran

I didn’t think the SNP could get any of the list?

I suppose with the Greens it IS a majority. No change overall then from the last 4 (or is it 5) years. I do think that NS hoped for a majority vote without a coalition with the Greens again to achieve another run at Indy2!

You think NS hoped for an overall majority ? No shit, Sherlock ?

growstuff Sat 08-May-21 17:23:12

grandmajet Harold Wilson didn't have a traditional working class background. It's ironic that Ted Heath's background was actually more working class than Wilson's. Wilson had a degree in PPE from Oxford and became one of the youngest ever Oxford dons at the age of 21. Before becoming an MP, he was a civil servant.

MaizieD Sat 08-May-21 17:21:43

grandmajet

The current Conservative party is not, in my opinion, actually very right wing - the social policies are more those of the old fashioned liberal party, as is the appeal I think. Going back to local decisions as much as possible.
Have you read the words of Khalid Mahmood, a Labour M.P. for Birmingham, ‘A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party’ and ‘the loudest voices in the Labour movement over the past year in particular have focused more on pulling down statues than they have on helping people pull themselves up in the world.’ Most people care about their family, education, jobs etc, and don’t consider it a crime if someone wolf whistles in the street or accidentally misgenders someone. Bring back Harold Wilson - I wish we could! He had integrity and a genuine working background, not a law degree and a short career as a political aide or whatever.

I think that Khalid Mahmood is channeling Ug

Anniebach Sat 08-May-21 17:20:47

Harold Wilson had so much integrity he approved the people of Aberfan to pay towards removal of the tips, he also kept Lord Robbens and the board in their jobs even though the
Enquiry found the blame lay with the NCB and Lord Robbens
was economical with the truth

Tony Blair returned the money to the fund when he became PM nearly 30 years later

Urmstongran Sat 08-May-21 17:20:42

I didn’t think the SNP could get any of the list?

I suppose with the Greens it IS a majority. No change overall then from the last 4 (or is it 5) years. I do think that NS hoped for a majority vote without a coalition with the Greens again to achieve another run at Indy2!

PippaZ Sat 08-May-21 17:20:42

GrannyGravy13

PippaZ we are not in America, our political system is set up totally different.

As for Biden, he is not all good like most politicians he has faults.

The first of those comments is patently true but I'm not sure why it's relevant and the second is an opinion to which you are obviously entitled but in my opinion he was right to "keep his powder dry" and hope Starmer does not hand policies out to Britain Trump before he has to.

Alegrias1 Sat 08-May-21 17:19:50

Urmstongran

" Scotland's Deputy First Minister has insisted that the SNP has a mandate to hold Scotland's second independence referendum, known as IndyRef2, even without a majority in the Scottish Parliament."

Any attempt to do so would be stopped in its tracks at once by the Supreme Court.

Power over Constitutional matters has not be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

NS knows this full well.

And if they press ahead regardless? Another Catalonia/Spain situation?

No, no wildcats.

Just democracy.

Alegrias1 Sat 08-May-21 17:19:03

Urmstongran

.... it’s a big no from the granite city.

3 constituencies in the Granite City. (Aberdeen, for anybody interested)

All stayed SNP.

Keep trying Urmstongran, you'll get one right eventually.

suziewoozie Sat 08-May-21 17:15:18

Callistemon

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

Yes because it’s unusual times. There’s never been anything like this . I think some of the analysis will be very interesting. Broadly though incumbent governments have succeeded across the 3 nations - that’s relevant as with also most Mayors. London is interesting - I thought he might do it on 1st preferences and Bailey is beyond dire.

Alegrias1 Sat 08-May-21 17:13:24

Urmstongran

The SNP and the Greens have lost the popular vote in Scotland. There is no majority for the nationalists among the electorate.

Really lassie, what are you talking about? Lost the popular vote?

SNP and Green together, projected to have 72 seats in a Parliament of 129 seats. 55% of seats

Forecast to be 49% of the electorate, och well, we'll live with that.

SNP vote share increased 3%, Green increased 0.5% in the constituencies. We'll have to wait for the list.

Urmstongran Sat 08-May-21 17:06:49

" Scotland's Deputy First Minister has insisted that the SNP has a mandate to hold Scotland's second independence referendum, known as IndyRef2, even without a majority in the Scottish Parliament."

Any attempt to do so would be stopped in its tracks at once by the Supreme Court.

Power over Constitutional matters has not be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

NS knows this full well.

And if they press ahead regardless? Another Catalonia/Spain situation?

Callistemon Sat 08-May-21 17:00:27

Is this an unusual trend?
Quite often local elections may reflect a dissatisfaction with central government with the opposition party gaining local seats.

GrannyGravy13 Sat 08-May-21 16:59:42

PippaZ we are not in America, our political system is set up totally different.

As for Biden, he is not all good like most politicians he has faults.