It's not all over for the LibDems

GrannyGravy13

Labour only got 622 votes, their lowest ever in a by-election, not Mr.Starmer’s finest hour.

That is because Labour voters knew that their candidate wouldn't get anywhere near winning in that constituency so they voted for the candidate with the best chance of ousting the tory.

There are times when tribal voting makes no sense at all and this would have been one of them. I have no doubt that Starmer is well aware of this. He's not unintelligent.

If results such as this one are repeated, they're actually doing Labour a big favour. There is no way in a million years, Labour would have won. If the LibDems take more seats from the Conservatives, it's making Labour's job in the seats they could win more achievable.

With the current system, it wouldn't have mattered if Labour had won 622 votes or just one fewer than the winner. There is only one parliamentary seat up for grabs.

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

This has been a Tory seat since forever, so loosing to such margin is a stunning result. Much worse for Tories than Labour, however they want to spin it . Labour were never going to win, so anyone inclined to vote for them would vote Lib Dem, in order to have etc only chance of defeating the Tory.

Message deleted by Gransnet. Repeats withdrawn post.

seamstress

But now they are at least 20, so reaping the"benefits", and how many Brexit voters have died since 2016?

What is the point of this sort of speculation?
How long is a piece of string?

M0nica

Wantage

So, Wantage and the assertion that the Tories are the party of bright STEM graduates.

Wantage has been Tory since 1983 I believe apart from when their MP crossed the house to Labour. Then promptly lost his seat.

The swing away from the Tories at the 2019 election was 3.4%, when the majority of the country was swinging towards them. And a lot of people moved their vote from Labour to Lib Dem, presumably to try to get the Tory out. Seems all those bright young STEM graduates are having an impact on the demographics of the place.

Also worth repeating here that nobody born this century voted for Brexit.

And nobody born this century voted Remain either.

MawBe

seamstress

But now they are at least 20, so reaping the"benefits", and how many Brexit voters have died since 2016?

What is the point of this sort of speculation?
How long is a piece of string?

It is possible to know how many older voters have died and estimate the proportion of those that were 'leave' voters and know how many young people have joined the voter's list since a specific date and estimate (by polling them) how many feel an opportunity has been taken away from them by Brexit.

The point about the string is irrelevant. A "piece" of string is not any definite length, that's why people use the saying about things that cannot be calculated or, as my father would have said, "it's twice as long as half its length".

So not very useful in this instance.

Alegrias1

M0nica

Wantage

So, Wantage and the assertion that the Tories are the party of bright STEM graduates.

Wantage has been Tory since 1983 I believe apart from when their MP crossed the house to Labour. Then promptly lost his seat.

The swing away from the Tories at the 2019 election was 3.4%, when the majority of the country was swinging towards them. And a lot of people moved their vote from Labour to Lib Dem, presumably to try to get the Tory out. Seems all those bright young STEM graduates are having an impact on the demographics of the place.

Cambridge and Cambridgeshire have more than the national average number of bright STEM graduates. Cambridge has a Labour MP. Cambridge City Council is controlled by Labour. South Cambridgeshire is currently run by a coalition of Labour, LibDems and Independents and the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor is Labour.

What does that say about how bright young STEM graduates vote?

Incidentally, if Wiki is correct, both Wantage town council and the Vale of White Horse District Council (of which Wantage is part) are controlled by LibDems. Apologies if Wiki is wrong.

MawBe

^Also worth repeating here that nobody born this century voted for Brexit^.

And nobody born this century voted Remain either.

Some born this century may have voted in the last General Election, though.

The Brexit government of Boris Johnson got a landslide victory.
Now that is odd!

It is possible to know how many older voters have died and estimate the proportion of those that were 'leave' voters and know how many young people have joined the voter's list since a specific date and estimate (by polling them) how many feel an opportunity has been taken away from them by Brexit

But it’s all guesswork aka smoke and mirrors PippaZ
Judging by the demographic of a site called Gransnet you might expect all of us “oldies ” to have been Leave voters - do you include yourself? So you cannot speak for others. Your use of the word estimate says it all.
Don't answer that, as we are still (despite exit polls/you give polls/pundits/armchair experts) able to enjoy a secret ballot in this country so speculation as to how many died, whether they voted Leave or Remain, indeed whether they voted at all (DH didn’t , he was in hospital and we had left it too late to organise a postal vote)and lots of other imponderables etc etc etc
Which brings me back precisely to asking “How long is a piece of string?”

Wantage Conservative vote has been between 50-55% for the last 20 years a few percentage one way then the other, nothing significant.

yes, Vale of White Horse is Lob Dem controlled and has been on and off for some years, but it seems to have little effect on the Conservative vote at elections, it stays between 50-55%. Oxford West and Abingdon, the adjacent constituency is Lib Dem and has been for some time with one glitch, in 2010, I seem to remember.

But as the rural agricultural vote cannot account for the Conservative vote, it must be all those clever family forming technical workers coming into the constituency who are voting for them. there isn't anyone else to.

Is everybody a farm worker or a clever techie person?

Nobody working in Tesco's?

The Brexit government of Boris Johnson got a landslide victory.

He did not get the majority of the votes cast.

Landslide in terms of seats. Not in terms of votes. The majority of voters didn't want him. He doesn't have the backing of the majority of voters.

Read back, I did say that those that weren't techies work for the minimum wage in the multiple warehouses that crowd the place, where the science parks aren't. Most of them live in Didcot, but, as housingthere is so expensive, most of the houses there are sold to STEM workers. Where do the others live, well up to 40% of houses on all developments are Housing Association houses and I think a growing number commute from Swindon where housing costs are lower.

A month ago a young couple (early 30s) with two children bought a neighbouring house for over £1 million and ten years ago another similar aged couple paid £850,000 for another such house. The new housing estates round us are full of detached 4 bedroomed houses costing over £500,000 and Housing Association houses and flats. We wouldn't be living here if we hadn't bought our home 25 years ago when the area wasn't so 'hot' employment and housing wise.

Much as people find it an uncomfortable fact. Much of the Conservative vote in this constituency is coming from the incomers. Even in Didcot, in two of the three wards, it is estimated that most voters support the Conservatives.

Now as you know well I am a lifelong LibDem, I have nothing invested in which way the constituency goes, unless it is to us, and at local level it does, but the Lib Dem support at general elections generally hovers around 25% +/- 5%

Indeed, he has NOT.

It is time the electorate and all in opposition understand and come to terms with the realities of the First Past the Post system, and how Constituencies are being manipulated to favour Cons.

The Labour Party firstly, as divided they will never win. Then clever alliances have to be planned, Constituency by Constituency, region by region. If this happens, the Cons will be beaten.

It this does not happen, they will get back in again- with a minority of the vote, which still manifested itself as an 'apparent' landslide.

MawBe

^It is possible to know how many older voters have died and estimate the proportion of those that were 'leave' voters and know how many young people have joined the voter's list since a specific date and estimate (by polling them) how many feel an opportunity has been taken away from them by Brexit^

But it’s all guesswork aka smoke and mirrors PippaZ
Judging by the demographic of a site called Gransnet you might expect all of us “oldies ” to have been Leave voters - do you include yourself? So you cannot speak for others. Your use of the word estimate says it all.
Don't answer that, as we are still (despite exit polls/you give polls/pundits/armchair experts) able to enjoy a secret ballot in this country so speculation as to how many died, whether they voted Leave or Remain, indeed whether they voted at all (DH didn’t , he was in hospital and we had left it too late to organise a postal vote)and lots of other imponderables etc etc etc
Which brings me back precisely to asking “How long is a piece of string?”

So, psephology uses historical voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information, and similar statistical data. Psephology is a division of political science that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls.

You, on the other hand, think the saying "how long is a piece of string" and "it's all smoke and mirrors" wins an argument.

Argument: a reason or set of reasons given in support of an idea, action or theory.

Your argument is unfounded and offers only your opinion and some catchphrases as "facts": they aren't. There is no deductive reasoning - which is there in the psephologist's analysis which makes yours a very weak argument.

Now this will not stop you from holding those views, nor should it, but you are pushing a boulder uphill in your effort to convince me or anyone else, other than those who already want to see it from your perspective, that you are making any actual, valid point.

MawBe

^It is possible to know how many older voters have died and estimate the proportion of those that were 'leave' voters and know how many young people have joined the voter's list since a specific date and estimate (by polling them) how many feel an opportunity has been taken away from them by Brexit^

But it’s all guesswork aka smoke and mirrors PippaZ
Judging by the demographic of a site called Gransnet you might expect all of us “oldies ” to have been Leave voters - do you include yourself? So you cannot speak for others. Your use of the word estimate says it all.
Don't answer that, as we are still (despite exit polls/you give polls/pundits/armchair experts) able to enjoy a secret ballot in this country so speculation as to how many died, whether they voted Leave or Remain, indeed whether they voted at all (DH didn’t , he was in hospital and we had left it too late to organise a postal vote)and lots of other imponderables etc etc etc
Which brings me back precisely to asking “How long is a piece of string?”

Your understanding of the word "estimate" tells us more. Every business in this country uses estimates made on prior knowledge - or are you saying this never works in giving better guidance than guesswork and bias.

M0nica

Wantage Conservative vote has been between 50-55% for the last 20 years a few percentage one way then the other, nothing significant.

yes, Vale of White Horse is Lob Dem controlled and has been on and off for some years, but it seems to have little effect on the Conservative vote at elections, it stays between 50-55%. Oxford West and Abingdon, the adjacent constituency is Lib Dem and has been for some time with one glitch, in 2010, I seem to remember.

But as the rural agricultural vote cannot account for the Conservative vote, it must be all those clever family forming technical workers coming into the constituency who are voting for them. there isn't anyone else to.

I'm puzzled. Why can't the rural agricultural vote account for the conservative vote?

I know from canvassing in past elections that in this constituency (on Cambridge's doorstep) that it is precisely the rural agricultural voters who vote Conservative and UKIP. That's reflected in parish and district council votes too. You can also see the piles of ballot papers on counting nights, which confirm the divides.

The bright young techies round here nearly all vote Labour, LibDem or Green. Curious that their Oxford equivalents vote differently.

I meant Conservative vote (with a capital C).

MawBe

^It is possible to know how many older voters have died and estimate the proportion of those that were 'leave' voters and know how many young people have joined the voter's list since a specific date and estimate (by polling them) how many feel an opportunity has been taken away from them by Brexit^

But it’s all guesswork aka smoke and mirrors PippaZ
Judging by the demographic of a site called Gransnet you might expect all of us “oldies ” to have been Leave voters - do you include yourself? So you cannot speak for others. Your use of the word estimate says it all.
Don't answer that, as we are still (despite exit polls/you give polls/pundits/armchair experts) able to enjoy a secret ballot in this country so speculation as to how many died, whether they voted Leave or Remain, indeed whether they voted at all (DH didn’t , he was in hospital and we had left it too late to organise a postal vote)and lots of other imponderables etc etc etc
Which brings me back precisely to asking “How long is a piece of string?”

No, it's not guesswork. There have been dozens of polls of how people voted in the referendum. Of course they're not 100% accurate and they don't identify individuals, but the percentage in each age bracket who voted to leave/remain is easy to calculate.

We also know how many people have died since 2016 and how old they were. Assuming that people died in equal proportions amongst leave and remain voters, it can be calculated approximately how many Leave voters have died. We know how many people have turned 18 since the referendum and we know that younger people voted overwhelmingly to remain.

Yes, there are unknowns, such whether people who have died actually voted, but educated guesses can be made. This is nothing to do with a handful of voters on Gransnet, but analyses of thousands of voters nationwide.

I really don't understand how you can think that the numbers are irrelevant or can't be calculated. I'm sorry to say this, but maths seems to be a weak spot.

Pippa has explained it better than I could have done. This is not speculation or guesswork.

This thread has made me want to research how the bits that will make up our possible new constituency voted in the past. Does anyone know if those figures will exist anywhere or is it only ever reported as the whole constituency?