It's not all over for the LibDems

MOnica You might know that I am also a lifelong, paid up LibDem. Have you ever been out canvassing? It's very revealing. This is a huge constituency geographically and Conservative. The incomers tend to vote LibDem or Green - it's the people whose families have been here for generations who vote Conservative. Some of them live in the poorest housing and have low income jobs. Some of them have been/are employed in agriculture. They have socially conservative values and support the Conservatives/UKIP in the culture wars. Their attitudes and values are not dissimilar to the "red wall" Tories in the north.

Are they interested in the cultures wars? From what I have seen that is a very niche interest.

Galaxy

Are they interested in the cultures wars? From what I have seen that is a very niche interest.

Not at all. They're the very ones who are the object of it. They despise "wokeness", BLM, health and safety (gorn mad), concern for the climate, equality, diversity, etc etc. That's what culture wars are all about. They'd have been the backbone of Trump support if they'd been American.

I definitely recognise the socially conservative values in the poorer households. I think everyone who has ever done any canvassing will agree.

They are as you say supportive of the Tory cultural wars, but would not necessarily recognise it as such. GB News anti-woke will resonate with these voters.

Is it not rather that those things mostly are fairly irrelevant to their lives and they can also feel the contempt that their views are treated with.

No I think quite the reverse. I think that they consider themselves on the “front line”

Trisher ''charismatic leaders with a fatal flaw''

I suppose we don't have that now? Add a big 's' and take away the humanity and intelligence.

Kali2 if you are referring to Boris I agree about the charisma. He's also intelligent, just has no principles. Interestingly he doesn't even pretend to have any!

I know people say he is intelligent- but really, seeing his performance recently, I really am not sure. No-one could behave so stupidly if he was intelligent.

Galaxy

Is it not rather that those things mostly are fairly irrelevant to their lives and they can also feel the contempt that their views are treated with.

I don't think so. When I first went canvassing, I was amazed. There were people who lived in poor housing and had insecure jobs who said they were going to vote Conservative or UKIP. We did listen to what they had to say and if they'd have compared manifestos, they would have seen that both Labour and LibDems (not so much Greens) had policies which would have helped them. They had very entrenched ideas, which we didn't try to argue with. They wanted to help themselves (charity was a dirty word) but they wanted others to provide the conditions in which they could thrive because they couldn't do that themselves. They couldn't see the irony in voting for a party which supported systems which made their living conditions worse. They were very selective about what they wanted to believe. I think Cummings was one of the few people who understood the mentality and exploited it.

Galaxy

Is it not rather that those things mostly are fairly irrelevant to their lives and they can also feel the contempt that their views are treated with.

They have been made to think that those things are relevant to their lives and that they are discriminated against in favour of minorities/foreigners. Health and safety, equality and concern for the environment etc are blamed for things they can't do, so they are very much part of a culture war. They're the object of it and are being manipulated.

Prime examples would be people in farming and fishing, who were persuaded to vote against their own interests.

Intelligent, really ?

youtu.be/DHchYrrcxQk

But you dont appear to know those people at all or have any understanding of their concerns, you see their views as things that need fixing. When I say you I really mean the middle class members/voters of labour and lib dems. Have you listened to Paul Embrey about the current situation within the labour party, I dont agree with some of his opinions, but I think at least he likes and knows the people Labour is supposed to represent. Currently it is the middle class dominating the labour party whereas before it was a balance between the two, now it might be that some sort of progressive alliance is the way forward (I doubt it but its possible) however currently it would be an alliance that represents the middle class and that's not really a political party that appeals to me.

So would you prefer Tories again?

The voters need to catch up with us, is if only they would stop being manipulated by the right and let me tell them what they should be thinking.

PippaZ

This thread has made me want to research how the bits that will make up our possible new constituency voted in the past. Does anyone know if those figures will exist anywhere or is it only ever reported as the whole constituency?

PippaZ try googling your constituency's election results by division, or ward.

growstuff the rural part of the constituency cannt account for all the Conservative vote because the population of the rural area is just too low to do so, particularly as not everyone there will vote for the Conservatives.

Most of the Conservative vote comes from the rapidly growing towns; Wantage and Grove, Didcot, Faringdon. Areas where 10,000 and many more new houses have been built in the last ten years and it isn't the old settled population buying them, it is the younger family forming groups moving to work in the area, whether immediately in the constituency, or in Oxford or Newbury.

I have found this site very useful. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Wantage

Kali2

Intelligent, really ?

youtu.be/DHchYrrcxQk

You see Kali2 you are assuming that Boris &co really want us to be safe and protected and are concerned with the number of deaths. The lack of proper lockdown and restrictions is more to do with keeping the economy going and little to do with what most of us would regard as intelligent policies. Their ability to pretend it's just a mistake is the really clever thing.

Galaxy

But you dont appear to know those people at all or have any understanding of their concerns, you see their views as things that need fixing. When I say you I really mean the middle class members/voters of labour and lib dems. Have you listened to Paul Embrey about the current situation within the labour party, I dont agree with some of his opinions, but I think at least he likes and knows the people Labour is supposed to represent. Currently it is the middle class dominating the labour party whereas before it was a balance between the two, now it might be that some sort of progressive alliance is the way forward (I doubt it but its possible) however currently it would be an alliance that represents the middle class and that's not really a political party that appeals to me.

Who is the "middle-class" Galaxy? We all, bar a very few, have to work. And how do you pigeonhole those you call "those people"?

Jo Cox's line from her maiden speech "We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us." has been applauded by all parties but which of these parties is working for the "common good" and which being divisive? Why should "Labour" be "supposed to represent" any small group? I thought their chant was "for the many not the few"!

Alegrias1

PippaZ

This thread has made me want to research how the bits that will make up our possible new constituency voted in the past. Does anyone know if those figures will exist anywhere or is it only ever reported as the whole constituency?

PippaZ try googling your constituency's election results by division, or ward.

Good thought! Thanks

Kali2

I know people say he is intelligent- but really, seeing his performance recently, I really am not sure. No-one could behave so stupidly if he was intelligent.

Yes, he is intelligent Kali2

People can be highly intelligent but not have common sense. It's not an infrequent occurrence.
People can have oodles of common sense but not have the kind of brain which would get them into Oxbridge and/or become an academic.

I've often observed this.

Yes Pippa that's why I said the labour party used to balance both groups, for the many not the few indeed. It doesnt do that anymore. Only those who dont feel the effects of class can deny its existence. Dear God we are all working class.

I dont think the Tories are working for the common good, however I also dont think viewing traditional labour voters, red wall voters, however you would like to label them, as a problem that needs fixing, is anything but divisive.

M0nica

growstuff the rural part of the constituency cannt account for all the Conservative vote because the population of the rural area is just too low to do so, particularly as not everyone there will vote for the Conservatives.

Most of the Conservative vote comes from the rapidly growing towns; Wantage and Grove, Didcot, Faringdon. Areas where 10,000 and many more new houses have been built in the last ten years and it isn't the old settled population buying them, it is the younger family forming groups moving to work in the area, whether immediately in the constituency, or in Oxford or Newbury.

I have found this site very useful. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Wantage

MOnica I don't know your area at all, but I do know mine. I've lived here for 35 years and have been active in local politics for much of that time. I have been out with candidates knocking on doors and have stood around windy marketplaces talking to people. The LibDems have built up a wealth of local knowledge about how streets and hamlets vote. Obviously it's not an exact science and there will always be exceptions, but we have a fair idea how people vote and why down to individual streets. We know how new building will affect voting patterns and target resources on canvassing, if we think they will be potential voters. We don't usually bother with areas where we know there will be almost no support because we don't have the resources to cover everybody. Of course, some of those people then complain that nobody has leafleted them. In truth, all some of them want is an opportunity to rant.

I don't know who is moving to your area. Here it is often people moving out of London, who tend to be wealthy (from selling property) but socially liberal. They are usually graduates, who tend to be far less conservative (with a small "c") than lifelong country dwellers. I would be surprised if the pattern in your area is very different, but it could be. That's why it's very important for political parties to have strong local networks of people who really understand the area first hand, not just from third party statistics.