M0nica
I am sorry, kjmpde, but everything you mention was completely foreseeable and clearly signposted.
The dangers of our dependence on foreign suppliers like Russia has been a concern for 30 years or more.
No it’s not foreseeable, any market cannot be predicted, even day to day money can be made or lost, once you are committed to that market you are locked in.
You hope to play it to your advantage, it doesn’t matter wether it is currency, metals, potatoes or energy you hope to buy cheap and sell dear. If you buy too much forward and the price falls you can loose a lot, in general the only traders that make money consistently are those that are rich enough to influence the market.
As for foreign suppliers, we are sitting on a island of coal and gas that we are not exploiting, politics determines that we cannot use it, so we pay the price of that decision.