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The North Shropshire Byelection *edited by GNHQ*

(195 Posts)
varian Sun 12-Dec-21 10:42:17

It now looks possible that the huge majority enjoyed by the disgraced Tory MP Owen Paterson could be overturned by the Liberal Democrat candidate Helen Morgan

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/north-shropshire-by-election-polls-b1973823.html

MaizieD Mon 20-Dec-21 18:36:20

M0nica

Calistemon

I thought most people would. I do not have a track record as an extreme right winger.

I will just have to spell it out in more detail next time.

Maizie what I had in mind is that if the extreme right wingers take over, policy will go so right wing that the swing section of voters who vote differently at every election, will swing to another party and so will a number of the Conservative voters so the Conservatives would be in danger of losing the election, which would be a good thing. Because of that I think it will be good for the opposition if the Conservatives swing right.

Phew, MOnica. Thanks for that. I thought you were having a funny turn grin

M0nica Mon 20-Dec-21 17:28:41

Calistemon

I thought most people would. I do not have a track record as an extreme right winger.

I will just have to spell it out in more detail next time.

Maizie what I had in mind is that if the extreme right wingers take over, policy will go so right wing that the swing section of voters who vote differently at every election, will swing to another party and so will a number of the Conservative voters so the Conservatives would be in danger of losing the election, which would be a good thing. Because of that I think it will be good for the opposition if the Conservatives swing right.

Calistemon Mon 20-Dec-21 14:54:12

MaizieD

M0nica

I am all for a lurch to the right, by the next election, with the NHS and education iin a situation of near collapse and more and more plutocrats swanning a round, no one will want to to vote for them.

Blimey!

Another one gung ho for deregulation, eh?

I got it, M0nica!

But it might not have the result you predict.

MaizieD Mon 20-Dec-21 14:48:41

M0nica

I am all for a lurch to the right, by the next election, with the NHS and education iin a situation of near collapse and more and more plutocrats swanning a round, no one will want to to vote for them.

Blimey!

Another one gung ho for deregulation, eh?

M0nica Mon 20-Dec-21 14:24:57

I am all for a lurch to the right, by the next election, with the NHS and education iin a situation of near collapse and more and more plutocrats swanning a round, no one will want to to vote for them.

varian Mon 20-Dec-21 14:12:56

Are you by any chance a tax dodging billionaire?

I can't see why anyone else would hope for a lurch to the right.

Maudi Mon 20-Dec-21 13:13:25

Lurch to the right I hope.

MaizieD Sun 19-Dec-21 11:19:42

Baggs

Article by Tom Slater in spiked This government has no principles, no point to it beyond its own survival. And voters have noticed.

It's a pity more journalists didn't notice what many people could have told them before Dec 2019.

This government only ever had one 'point' and it did that really badly.

What worries me is if they're going to lurch further to the right when Johnson goes.

Or will they come back towards the centre...?

Baggs Sun 19-Dec-21 11:02:37

Article by Tom Slater in spiked This government has no principles, no point to it beyond its own survival. And voters have noticed.

MayBeMaw Sun 19-Dec-21 07:35:15

I’m afraid there’s not a lot to smile at these days, where would we be without Matt?

vegansrock Sat 18-Dec-21 21:02:42

Anyone in the current cabinet is tainted by association surely? And we know he chose nodding dogs, ar*e lickers and dimwits as supporting acts.

Calistemon Sat 18-Dec-21 18:40:55

Interesting thing about a change of PM would be that most of the main contenders would have come from Johnson's cabinet.

Unless there is a huge rebellion!

MaizieD Sat 18-Dec-21 18:39:58

Interesting thing about a change of PM would be that most of the main contenders would have come from Johnson's cabinet. So supported him all through his continual lying and corruption. And supported the incompetence and the draconian and illiberal legislation.

Would voters take that into consideration, I wonder?

Calistemon Sat 18-Dec-21 18:36:37

MaizieD

Calistemon

The turnout was 46.28%

In fact, as you so often point out, varian when telling us what a low % of the total electorate voted for Brexit, this result, following your logic, is undemocratic.

The turnout was higher than usual for a byelection. It's usually in the 30+% range.

I think this was quite a controversial bi-election, though, with current events and Patterson's shenanigans.

MaizieD Sat 18-Dec-21 18:35:45

MayBeMaw

Does “not turning out to vote (not “bite” but maybe that too!) still turn a massive Conservative majority round to a LibDem majority of 23,000?
Surely the 20% drop in turnout owed much to many Conservatives voting their feet ?

The LDs had 12,000 more people voting for them than at the previous GE. Can't all have been Labour people voting tactically. Therefore, not all tory voters stayed at home...

Calistemon Sat 18-Dec-21 18:35:00

MayBeMaw

Does “not turning out to vote (not “bite” but maybe that too!) still turn a massive Conservative majority round to a LibDem majority of 23,000?
Surely the 20% drop in turnout owed much to many Conservatives voting their feet ?

Yes, it was a protest vote against both Johnson and Patterson.
However 20% obviously could not bring themselves to vote for another party.

Whether that would be sustainable if there is a change of PM before a GE would be interesting.

MaizieD Sat 18-Dec-21 18:33:41

Calistemon

The turnout was 46.28%

In fact, as you so often point out, varian when telling us what a low % of the total electorate voted for Brexit, this result, following your logic, is undemocratic.

The turnout was higher than usual for a byelection. It's usually in the 30+% range.

varian Sat 18-Dec-21 18:30:52

So maybe we need electoral reform

MayBeMaw Sat 18-Dec-21 18:29:17

Does “not turning out to vote (not “bite” but maybe that too!) still turn a massive Conservative majority round to a LibDem majority of 23,000?
Surely the 20% drop in turnout owed much to many Conservatives voting their feet ?

Calistemon Sat 18-Dec-21 18:24:11

The turnout was 46.28%

In fact, as you so often point out, varian when telling us what a low % of the total electorate voted for Brexit, this result, following your logic, is undemocratic.

Mollygo Sat 18-Dec-21 18:03:57

Oh I get it now. I thought the win was because all the ex Tory voters had voted Lib-Dem. Not turning out to bite makes much more sense. Thanks varian.

Urmstongran Sat 18-Dec-21 17:47:58

Maybe not ‘leaving’ just couldn’t be arsed going to vote. A lot of people don’t bother unless it’s a GE. By elections have a notoriously low turnout usually.

varian Sat 18-Dec-21 17:36:54

Boris Johnson is losing his grip on power. Only a third of those who voted Conservative in North Shropshire at the last election turned up to support his party in yesterday’s by-election. The supporters he could once rely on are leaving.

A combination of apathy, disgust, tactical voting and protest votes saw an historic 34% swing to the Liberal Democrats – the seventh-largest swing in any by-election since World War Two.

Yet this should have been solidly Conservative territory: a Leave-voting, rural shire seat of small, picture-postcard market towns, which has elected Tory MPs since 1904.

In fact, this was the 76th-safest Conservative seat in the country – meaning that another 288 seats won by the party in 2019 are now vulnerable to similar swings.

www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/after-north-shropshire-boris-johnson-and-keir-starmer-should-be-worried/

MayBeMaw Sat 18-Dec-21 08:47:48

Someone not having their best Christmas, it seems….

M0nica Sat 18-Dec-21 07:05:23

I believe Mrs May has been named as 'Back bencher of the year' . Proving that she is actually more competent than Boris and proving also to be a thorn in his side.

She must be enjoying BJ's comeuppance.