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Russian massing on the Ukrainian border
(544 Posts)So while our government is debating on what constitutes a party, how many parties may have been held a couple of years ago, there's a terrible threat to world peace going on at the edge of Europe. Anybody else noticed?
Because it is a real risk if things escalate. Quite terrifyingly simple
''In addition, ethical deterrence is an oxymoron. Theologians know that a nuclear war could never meet so-called ‘just war’ criteria. In 1966, the Second Vatican Council concluded: ‘Any act of war aimed indiscriminately at the destruction of entire cities or of extensive areas along with their populations is a crime against God and man itself. It merits unequivocal and unhesitating condemnation.’ And in a pastoral letter in 1983, the US Catholic bishops added: ‘This condemnation, in our judgment, applies even to the retaliatory use of weapons striking enemy cities after our own have already been struck.’ They continued that, if something is immoral to do, then it is also immoral to threaten. In a message to the 2014 Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons, Pope Francis declared that: ‘Nuclear deterrence and the threat of mutually assured destruction cannot be the basis of an ethics of fraternity and peaceful coexistence among peoples and states.’
The United Methodist Council of Bishops go further than their Catholic counterparts, concluding in 1986 that: ‘Deterrence must no longer receive the churches’ blessing, even as a temporary warrant for the maintenance of nuclear weapons.’ In The Just War (1968), the Protestant ethicist Paul Ramsey asked his readers to imagine that traffic accidents in a particular city had suddenly been reduced to zero, after which it was found that everyone had been required to strap a newborn infant to the bumper of every car.
Perhaps the most frightening thing about nuclear deterrence is its many paths to failure. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the least likely is a ‘bolt out of the blue’ (BOOB) attack. Meanwhile, there are substantial risks associated with escalated conventional war, accidental or unauthorised use, irrational use (although it can be argued that any use of nuclear weapons would be irrational) or false alarms, which have happened with frightening regularity, and could lead to ‘retaliation’ against an attack that hadn’t happened. There have also been numerous ‘broken arrow’ accidents – accidental launching, firing, theft or loss of a nuclear weapon – as well as circumstances in which such events as a flock of geese, a ruptured gas pipeline or faulty computer codes have been interpreted as a hostile missile launch.
The above describes only some of the inadequacies and outright dangers posed by deterrence, the doctrinal fulcrum that manipulates nuclear hardware, software, deployments, accumulation and escalation. Undoing the ideology – verging on theology – of deterrence won’t be easy, but neither is living under the threat of worldwide annihilation. As the poet T S Eliot once wrote, unless you are in over your head, how do you know how tall you are? And when it comes to nuclear deterrence, we’re all in over our heads.
This essay was originally published in Aeon
Kali2 why are you constantly referring to a nuclear war breaking out?
Whitewavemark2
GrannyGravy13
Whitewavemark2
If Wallace is so keen on strength why on earth has the decision been made by the U.K. to supply arms etc to Ukraine, but now withdraw those military trainers. Without the training the arms will be worse than useless to the Ukraine military.
There are still some U.K. troops in Ukraine and along the Polish border, troops are moved/redeployed constantly as and when their services are required.
The Ukraine ambassador has just pleaded on the R4 for the U.K. to stop withdrawing the trainers, because without their help they can’t use the weapons.
There is a Minister on Sophie Raworths programme at the moment who has confirmed that their are still troops in Ukraine at this minute training the Ukrainian Army.
The minute Russia invades these troops will be withdrawn as no way will the U.K. troops fight on the ground with the Russians.
GrannyGravy13
Kali2
Indeed WWmk2. It is no good wanting to re-fight the last war. We live in a totally different world now, with totally different military reality.
A nuclear one, and one in which some believe limited and winnable nuclear solutions are possible.Perhaps you could message Mr.Putin Kali2 he is the aggressor, NATO and it’s partners are trying to keep the peace.
THAT is not the point. He is the aggressor, although he is responding to provocation by NATO.
The fact is, even if he is absolutely and totally wrong- this is the reality. June 2020:
MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday endorsed Russia’s nuclear deterrent policy, which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting the nation’s critical government and military infrastructure.
By including a non-nuclear attack as a possible trigger for Russian nuclear retaliation, the document appears to send a warning signal to the U.S. The new expanded wording reflects Russian concerns about the development of prospective weapons that could give Washington the capability to knock out key military assets and government facilities without resorting to atomic weapons.
In line with Russian military doctrine, the new document reaffirms that the country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or an aggression involving conventional weapons that “threatens the very existence of the state.”
GrannyGravy13
Whitewavemark2
If Wallace is so keen on strength why on earth has the decision been made by the U.K. to supply arms etc to Ukraine, but now withdraw those military trainers. Without the training the arms will be worse than useless to the Ukraine military.
There are still some U.K. troops in Ukraine and along the Polish border, troops are moved/redeployed constantly as and when their services are required.
The Ukraine ambassador has just pleaded on the R4 for the U.K. to stop withdrawing the trainers, because without their help they can’t use the weapons.
Kali2
Indeed WWmk2. It is no good wanting to re-fight the last war. We live in a totally different world now, with totally different military reality.
A nuclear one, and one in which some believe limited and winnable nuclear solutions are possible.
Perhaps you could message Mr.Putin Kali2 he is the aggressor, NATO and it’s partners are trying to keep the peace.
Whitewavemark2
If Wallace is so keen on strength why on earth has the decision been made by the U.K. to supply arms etc to Ukraine, but now withdraw those military trainers. Without the training the arms will be worse than useless to the Ukraine military.
There are still some U.K. troops in Ukraine and along the Polish border, troops are moved/redeployed constantly as and when their services are required.
GrannyGravy13
Whitewavemark2
Strong rhetoric yes.
Divisive language - noI assume you feel the same about the divisive and extremely strong language of POTUS and his Senators/spokespersons?
Can you expand please? Difficult to know exactly what you are talking about.
Whitewavemark2
Strong rhetoric yes.
Divisive language - no
I assume you feel the same about the divisive and extremely strong language of POTUS and his Senators/spokespersons?
Indeed WWmk2. It is no good wanting to re-fight the last war. We live in a totally different world now, with totally different military reality.
A nuclear one, and one in which some believe limited and winnable nuclear solutions are possible.
If Wallace is so keen on strength why on earth has the decision been made by the U.K. to supply arms etc to Ukraine, but now withdraw those military trainers. Without the training the arms will be worse than useless to the Ukraine military.
Strong rhetoric yes.
Divisive language - no
I am sorry Whitewavemark2 but I disagree regarding Mr.Wallace, strong rhetoric is what is needed by all NATO members and that is what is happening.
GrannyGravy13
Whitewavemark2 I suggest that Mr.Putin needs to draw his neck in he is the person that has amassed over 100,000 of his troops along with tons of weaponry on the borders of Ukraine, he is the one that invaded/annexed Crimea.
Having watched an in-depth analysis of the situation on the BBC news channel this morning NATO is doing all it can to diffuse the situation however, it it will not stand by and watch the march of Russian boots through Europe, rightly so.
Of course he does, but unless Putin is encouraged to withdraw by a tight United front he will always take his chances.
Of course NATO is taking its part, but it also needs its members to be all singing from the same hymn sheet. NATO will do exactly what it’s political masters want it to do, it is not an independent entity.
Wallace is being ridiculous and playing to the gallery. I am not interested in this silly man’s agenda but I am interested in securing peace in Europe, which in my opinion is and always has been by a United group of countries.
Whitewavemark2 I suggest that Mr.Putin needs to draw his neck in he is the person that has amassed over 100,000 of his troops along with tons of weaponry on the borders of Ukraine, he is the one that invaded/annexed Crimea.
Having watched an in-depth analysis of the situation on the BBC news channel this morning NATO is doing all it can to diffuse the situation however, it it will not stand by and watch the march of Russian boots through Europe, rightly so.
Wallace needs to draw in his neck and stop playing the Brexit card and instead begin to act like an adult.
Biden has said that the USA will stop the new Russia/Germany pipeline and seek alternatives for those European countries who are so dependent on Russian gas.
That is the sort of language those countries need to hear, not some ridiculous idiot chuntering on about Munich and past history.
If we are to face Russia, we need to show a tight United front, this is not the time for the politics of division, which it would appear is all this populist government seems to understand.
Earlier today, Ben Wallace Minister for Defence, drew parallels with the 1930s policy of appeasement by saying there was “a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West”.
I think after the Winter Olympics in Beijing the Russians will invade Ukraine and China will invade Taiwan. Some say a pact has already been drawn up between Russia & China.
Jaberwok
The invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a warning that if Russia wants to do the same in Ukraine then she will, while the West dithers . What if Poland then becomes the next country to be threatened and perhaps invaded? What will the West do then? Putin could, perhaps is, behaving exactly like Hitler in demanding and taking more and more while being appeased by the West. China also has Taiwan on its radar, North Korea,the South. Russia's ambitions could certainly embolden others, knowing that the West will just ring its hands in despair, until??!
Yes, it is just an awful situation. And yet, that is the reality of Nuclear Weapons - Putin knows that and is using it. And it is just so so wrong, and the parrallels you draw about Hitler are totally correct. But the current situation, with nuclear war heads on both sides, a totally different situation.
It is so easy to say the West should not 'wring hands in despair' - and yet- what is the alternative, when dealing with the hands of a very ambitious madman, a psychopath, like Putin.
And he knows that ... tragically. He knows that the world is at stake, and he is prepared, perhaps, to see how it goes.
What CND have been warning about all those years, and they were derided and mocked.
Sorry, wring not ring!
Some elderly Ukrainians remember the Holodomor or have told their descendants about it and are fearful of it happening again.
The invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a warning that if Russia wants to do the same in Ukraine then she will, while the West dithers . What if Poland then becomes the next country to be threatened and perhaps invaded? What will the West do then? Putin could, perhaps is, behaving exactly like Hitler in demanding and taking more and more while being appeased by the West. China also has Taiwan on its radar, North Korea,the South. Russia's ambitions could certainly embolden others, knowing that the West will just ring its hands in despair, until??!
GrannyGravy13
Kali2 how do you feel about Russian submarines skirting British waters, or their jets entering British Airspace without permission?
Totally wrong of course. All provocation is wrong.
Even Wikipedia says that the HMS Defender incident last June was a planned and deliberate provocation, and that the UK was well aware of the risks and dangers involved. As proven by the documents someone left (or "happened" to leave?) at a bus station.
Are you saying that Liz Truss did a great job of diffusing tensions? Or that she represented NATO?
Yes Callistemon21 that’s exactly what it is Mr.Putin’s propaganda machine in other words it’s not me gov, it’s the pesky west
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