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News & politics

UK Economy Bounces Back

(136 Posts)
Cunco Fri 11-Feb-22 09:31:48

Darren Morgan of ONS told the BBC 'the expansion in 2021 showed the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of nations, but urged caution about making strict comparisons.'

"The growth in 2021 comes from a low base in 2020, when the economy fell sharply," Mr Morgan said. "And if you look at where the UK economy is now, compared to its pre-pandemic level, which I know a lot of people do for a broader picture of the economy, the UK is middle of the pack, compared with the G7."

'He said using this comparison the US, Canadian and French economies were above the UK's, while the UK was above Italy, Germany and Japan.'

I think that's fair enough and avoids the inevitable political bias from either side. Of course, inflation is a threat but, as Lord O'Neill has recently pointed out, it was predictable. It was, at least, to some of us old-fashioned economists, if not to the Bank of England.

Urmstongran Fri 11-Feb-22 17:21:37

This thread won’t last long. There’s not enough bad news to feast on. The UK doing well? ?

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 17:21:31

GrannyGravy13

growstuff if we do not think of and/or take care of ourselves who do you suppose is going to do so?

How selfish!

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 17:21:08

Gwyneth

I second that Allsorts. I always wonder why those who can never see any positives to living in the UK want to stay here as it’s so awful.

I was born here and I'm a British citizen. How dare you suggest I be chased out! Where would I go anyway?

PS. I'd like to live in a country where people are told the truth, not believe in fairies and unicorns.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 11-Feb-22 17:20:55

growstuff if we do not think of and/or take care of ourselves who do you suppose is going to do so?

Josieann Fri 11-Feb-22 17:19:28

Ooo dear!

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 17:18:53

Josieann

Urmstongran

Thanks Cunco for a reasoned post. Which won’t of course be welcomed by some on here. Doomsters and glum buckets who will jump in to denigrate the UK. The same punters who cried that Sterling was going to tank after the referendum result. WRONG‼️ The pound is exchanging at €1.19 today. Long may it continue.

That's a good rate of exchange, a lot better than the past few years. Good news as all our families are booked to get over to France this summer.

How about thinking about the bigger picture rather than yourself?

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 17:18:22

HolySox

Thanks Cunco for some positive news about the economy.
Don't understand Vegansrock comment about enrgy company dividends. Haven't a lot of UK energy suppliers gone bust with recent price hikes, and those remaining taking a massive hit. The only big profits for overseas suppliers ramping prices up taking advantage of supply shortages.

But there isn't any positive news about the economy! It's not even positive enough to be called "bread and circuses".

vegansrock Fri 11-Feb-22 17:16:42

Just look at Shell and BP profits - up billions.

HolySox Fri 11-Feb-22 16:48:46

Thanks Cunco for some positive news about the economy.
Don't understand Vegansrock comment about enrgy company dividends. Haven't a lot of UK energy suppliers gone bust with recent price hikes, and those remaining taking a massive hit. The only big profits for overseas suppliers ramping prices up taking advantage of supply shortages.

Josieann Fri 11-Feb-22 16:40:01

Urmstongran

Thanks Cunco for a reasoned post. Which won’t of course be welcomed by some on here. Doomsters and glum buckets who will jump in to denigrate the UK. The same punters who cried that Sterling was going to tank after the referendum result. WRONG‼️ The pound is exchanging at €1.19 today. Long may it continue.

That's a good rate of exchange, a lot better than the past few years. Good news as all our families are booked to get over to France this summer.

Gwyneth Fri 11-Feb-22 16:25:39

I second that Allsorts. I always wonder why those who can never see any positives to living in the UK want to stay here as it’s so awful.

Allsorts Fri 11-Feb-22 16:13:38

Thank you Cusco for an unbiased factual post. Like hens teeth on here. We all need bolstering up a bit it seems relentlessly bad news and tge good never mentioned. Other good news how well our fishermen on our coasts are doing, from high unemployment to a buoyant market.

Casdon Fri 11-Feb-22 16:09:58

So it was Cunco, sorry. It’s amazing how people draw different conclusions from the same piece of information. I’d say this is like the curate’s egg.

Cunco Fri 11-Feb-22 15:58:19

Casdon: Your more realistic assessment was the one with which I began this thread.

Growstuff: GDP growth is usually stated as real GDP growth after adjusting for inflation. It is, according to the BBC, one of the most important ways of measuring how well or badly the economy is doing. It reflects a multitude of activities which affect all of our lives, one way or another.

Of course, ill-health is not good news. The emergence of Omicron dampened activity in the final months of the year although increased health activities seems to have provided some offset, rather more than many anticipated.

GDP statistics are always estimates and subject to revision; but since there is no shortage of gloom when the figures are bad, it seems only reasonable that we allow a little sunshine when they are better than expected.

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 13:01:59

The ONS's own summary is interesting:

"The largest contributors to this quarterly increase were from human health and social work activities driven by increased GP visits at the start of the quarter and a large increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) testing and tracing activities and extension of the vaccination programme."

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

Could somebody please explain how human ill health is "good news"?

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 12:54:16

JenniferEccles

Whichever way the doom and gloom brigade like to twist it, this is good news.
Yes I do accept that the economy took a dive previously which we need to bear in mind, but we are on an upward trend, and that can’t be denied.

No, it's not good news for the majority of people.

Casdon Fri 11-Feb-22 12:35:14

A more realistic assessment from ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan:

“The growth in 2021 comes from a low base in 2020, when the economy fell sharply," Mr Morgan said. "And if you look at where the UK economy is now, compared to its pre-pandemic level, which I know a lot of people do for a broader picture of the economy, the UK is middle of the pack, compared with the G7."

JenniferEccles Fri 11-Feb-22 12:16:51

Whichever way the doom and gloom brigade like to twist it, this is good news.
Yes I do accept that the economy took a dive previously which we need to bear in mind, but we are on an upward trend, and that can’t be denied.

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 12:10:33

But economic growth hardly benefits anybody and interest rate increases will adversely affect those with mortgages. Economic growth increases with rising prices. It's not a good thing for the majority of people, unless managed well.

Urmstongran Fri 11-Feb-22 12:04:34

From the Business section today in the Telegraph:

“Market traders are betting that interest rates will hit 2pc by the end of the year after the economy outstripped every other G7 nation to grow at its fastest pace since the Second World War.”

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 11:20:08

GrannyGravy13

growstuff

Urmstongran

Thanks Cunco for a reasoned post. Which won’t of course be welcomed by some on here. Doomsters and glum buckets who will jump in to denigrate the UK. The same punters who cried that Sterling was going to tank after the referendum result. WRONG‼️ The pound is exchanging at €1.19 today. Long may it continue.

Not if you're trying to export to the Eurozone from the UK.

Good for folks importing from the Eurozone though…

Agreed, but the country already has a balance of trade deficit. We need to export more.

karmalady Fri 11-Feb-22 11:19:46

Thank you cunco, great positive news.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 11-Feb-22 11:17:07

growstuff

Urmstongran

Thanks Cunco for a reasoned post. Which won’t of course be welcomed by some on here. Doomsters and glum buckets who will jump in to denigrate the UK. The same punters who cried that Sterling was going to tank after the referendum result. WRONG‼️ The pound is exchanging at €1.19 today. Long may it continue.

Not if you're trying to export to the Eurozone from the UK.

Good for folks importing from the Eurozone though…

GrannyGravy13 Fri 11-Feb-22 11:15:54

I welcome any positive news regarding the U.K. economy.

growstuff Fri 11-Feb-22 11:13:50

Urmstongran

Thanks Cunco for a reasoned post. Which won’t of course be welcomed by some on here. Doomsters and glum buckets who will jump in to denigrate the UK. The same punters who cried that Sterling was going to tank after the referendum result. WRONG‼️ The pound is exchanging at €1.19 today. Long may it continue.

Not if you're trying to export to the Eurozone from the UK.