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Should MPs be able to understand statistics?

(40 Posts)
varian Sat 12-Feb-22 14:03:41

Just half of politicians can correctly answer this basic statistics question.

The results come from a new survey by the Royal Statistical Society that asked 101 members of parliament (MPs) in the UK a relatively simple statistics question: if you toss a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?

Interestingly, politicians who have been in power for longer were more likely to provide the right answer than those recently elected. Up to 68 percent of MPs who started in office between 2001 and 2009 gave the correct answer, compared to 38 percent of MPs elected in 2019.

flscience.com/editors-blog/just-half-of-politicians-can-correctly-answer-this-basic-statistics-question/

Blossoming Sun 13-Feb-22 12:04:58

I in 4.

There are 4 equally possible outcomes.
Heads, Heads
Heads, Tails
Tails, Heads
Tails, Tails

So 1 in 4

CraftyGranny Sun 13-Feb-22 12:19:47

Politicians love to give out statistics of this, that and the other. Of course they should understand what they are talking about, but I don't think many do

Chardy Sun 13-Feb-22 12:26:14

GrannyRose15

Maths education is so poor in this country that very few people know enough to be able to challenge what they are told. If we all understood maths better we wouldn't have fallen for some of the fear-mongering we've been subjected to recently. We would never expect every 11 year old to have a reading age of 11 and we would understand there is no need for higher rates of tax because a percentage rate already means those who earn more pay more.

Just three of my maths bugbears.

Wow GrannyRose15, as a maths teacher, could we have some evidence for your first statement, please?

growstuff Sun 13-Feb-22 14:08:59

When he was Education Secretary, Michael Gove demanded that all pupils achieve "above-average test scores". Hmm! hmm

GrannyRose15 Mon 14-Feb-22 00:55:05

Wow GrannyRose15, as a maths teacher, could we have some evidence for your first statement, please?

The evidence is in the rest of my post.

And as a teacher of adults I pick up your failures.

GrannyRose15 Mon 14-Feb-22 21:57:43

Sorry Chardy, I shouldn't have snapped back like that.

What I should have explained is that in my line of work I come across a lot of adults who have very poor maths skills. While some of this is undoubtedly down to other factors, the quality of the teaching they have received during their 12 years in compulsory education must be at least partly to blame for their poor achievement in maths.

Chocolatelovinggran Mon 14-Feb-22 22:14:39

Growstuff, I remember that ! Yes, as a former teacher, I would like Education Secretaries to understand the normal distribution curve. Most, in post, are keen to explain that their latest initiative will re- draw this...

Granmarderby10 Mon 14-Feb-22 22:21:02

Education Education Education ??‍?

Granmarderby10 Mon 14-Feb-22 22:37:54

Seriously, this is true.
I had chicken pox or measles (mid 1960s) this was aged about 6 - though most of the class did that year.
Anyhow when I returned to school I could not understand any of the maths lesson as they had moved on and after that never really caught up.
This became a phobia -though I’m not innumerate I just switch off whenever there’s talk of percentages,fractions
Thank goodness I did learn my multiplication tables up to twelve before leaving infants school.- even then though we were being given a message by some (trendy teachers) that they didn’t matter or would soon be irrelevant.
I know what has been more useful throughout my life, invaluable in fact.
Nearly as important as reading and writing which I’d picked up before even starting school, from my older siblings.

Callistemon21 Mon 14-Feb-22 23:32:39

Elegran
You have a drawer full of socks. There are ten pairs of grey ones and ten pairs of brown, but they have all got mixed up the dark, how many socks do you have to take out to be sure of having a matching pair (of either colour) ?

I'd just put the light on. Or buy all black socks.

But then, I'm not a politician.

Granmarderby10 Mon 14-Feb-22 23:41:15

???

Callistemon21 Mon 14-Feb-22 23:53:00

Granmarderby
The same happened with me when I had Asian flu after most of the class had returned - they all started learning Latin and more difficult Physics. Luckily we had a Physics teacher in the family who spent just an hour or two tutoring me and then there was light!
Perhaps MPs need advisors who understand statistics and laws of probability.

Grantanow Mon 28-Feb-22 17:27:06

Yes they should. Is it likely they will? No.

Chardy Mon 28-Feb-22 22:01:01

Sorry GrannyRose I meant to come back to this, and obviously didn't.

my line of work I come across a lot of adults who have very poor maths skills. While some of this is undoubtedly down to other factors, the quality of the teaching they have received during their 12 years in compulsory education must be at least partly to blame for their poor achievement in maths.

I taught maths for decades, I had successes, I had failures. If one teaches Adult Ed Reading and Basic Numeracy, obviously these are 100% folk who've missed out in some way. To then make sweeping generalisations about approximately 900k pupils in each school year based on a minute sample is not really mathematically sound.

While on the subject of statistics, my experience in sec schools (Y7-11) was that attendance was almost always 100% in top Maths sets, but almost never 100% in bottom sets.