54 Letters

Thank you for the link DiamondLily. I do hope they don't declare the vote on Johnson's leadership before the two elections.

Polls predict a heavy defeat for the Tories, in Wakefield, on 23rd June.

Labour have, apparently, a 20% lead.

It's also thought that the LDs have an excellent chance of taking Tiverton, on the same date.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-tory-byelection-loss-prime-minister-b2094149.html

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I agree. However, Johnson seems to be working to ensure there is no vote. He cannot want one, win or lose. Even if he wins, we will all be aware of the balance of numbers wanting him out.

Remember the vote is secret. Ministers and even Cabinet Ministers can vote without that vote ever being revealed. This is not the same when 'putting a letter in'. That is secret until it reaches the magic number and then the writers become known to the senior members of the 1922 Committee.

I have seen comments that the letters have reached 54 but Graham Brady is holding the information back until after the Jubilee weekend. Also, those "in the know" have been reporting that Boris is spending the bank holiday ringing likely letter writers and offering them jobs if they withdraw their letters.

It is certainly the case that Johnson could win a confidence vote. However, we can all remember what happened to Mrs May. Johnson will undoubtedly remember it.

If a vote is going to happen, Johnson will want it to take place before the by-elections. Currently, it's expected by all that the Tories will lose both seats. The question is, how badly? Whatever the parties think the Tories may not lose them. There is a very big unknown to deal with.

I don't think I have heard of anyone, or any group, who wants him to stay because of his policies and principles. Indeed, it would be interesting if we knew what they were. Once they start to think he will lose them their seats they will want to dump him. After all, that is all he is good for - or not.

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I am really struggling to understand why you want Mr.Johnson to win a vote of no confidence?

You have been vociferous in your opposition to him and his policies and wanting him to jump , now you want him to stay.

I’m completely torn.

I loath what he has done to my country, and i am not confident that there is another Tory up to the job who is likely to be voted in. My preference would be a traditional Tory like Rory Stewart or Dominic Grieve. However I am not a Tory supporter and would prefer that they are voted out at the next election, but, there is no denying the danger if a new leader “bump” in the polls which could possibly see the Tories rather terrifyingly in for another term.

I therefore think that this is less likely if the Tories go into an election with Johnson at the helm.

So that is my dilemma ?

I think many Tory MPs are still sounding out their electorate and are wondering if they will lose their seats if The Defendant remains in power. Self Preservation, as always.

Because Johnson is currently the oppositions (and by that I mean all parties) best weapon as he lurches from one disaster to another. And (from a personal point of view) the more people get to know him better the more they’ll realise that his brexit promises were all based on lies and misinformation.

Whitewavemark2

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

I am really struggling to understand why you want Mr.Johnson to win a vote of no confidence?

You have been vociferous in your opposition to him and his policies and wanting him to jump , now you want him to stay.

There was a lot of booing from the crowd, when he and his wife turned up at St Paul's:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/queen-jubilee-boris-johnson-booed-b2093324.html

In a way, a narrow win for Johnson would be the best possible outcome for the opposition of all shades.

Let’s go with that?

The rebels have asked that some of the MPs who have submitted letters, to withdraw them for a few weeks. They want to be more organised, before forcing a confidence vote.

"Rebel Conservative MPs’ plans to oust Boris Johnson next week have descended further into disunity, with some worried that potential contenders to replace the prime minister are not ready to launch their bids.

One MP hoping to engineer defeat for Johnson is now encouraging colleagues to withdraw their letters of no confidence to avoid triggering a vote “by accident” as soon as Monday or Tuesday, the Guardian has learned.

The speed of the backlash against the prime minister after the Sue Gray report on Covid law-breaking in Downing Street has surprised many, given the lack of coordination by rebels. More than 45 Tory MPs have publicly questioned Johnson’s fitness to hold office.

Some MPs told the Guardian they intended to submit a letter calling for a vote on Johnson’s premiership on Monday, to reach the required 54-letter threshold to trigger a ballot but avoid overshadowing the Queen’s platinum jubilee this weekend.

However, those who are wargaming how such a vote would play out are conflicted about the best time to force it.

Some said they were concerned that would-be leadership candidates had not yet mobilised supporters to summon the 180 votes needed for Johnson to lose a no-confidence vote.

They fear that if Johnson wins the contest narrowly, he will refuse to step down and will be protected for a year. They reason that MPs should hold off submitting letters until after two byelections on 23 June, viewed as tests of the prime minister’s election-winning abilities.

A source said Johnson still had the cabinet “wrapped around his finger” and that ministers viewed as being potential successors were “all too scared”.

Others are frustrated the campaign to oust Johnson has dragged on for months, and believe the aftermath of the Gray report is the moment to challenge his authority. They hope that the prospect of a narrow victory for Johnson, that could leave the Tory party in paralysis in the runup to the next general election, will be enough to convince ministers to vote against him.

An agitated rebel lamented the lack of coordination among those who want Johnson out, saying: “Give me a Bond villain, for Christ’s sake.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/02/boris-johnson-tory-rebel-mps-no-confidence-letters-gray-report

I think that’s too simplistic.
I bet between themselves the Tory party could come up with an alternative candidate (or two) for Boris. The point is ... would the voters agree? That is the big conundrum. They know he is popular - we must acknowledge that a large swathe of the voting public don’t go into the minutiae of government as we do on GN. In fact, never mind accountability in the ‘did he mislead Parliament?’ .... a great number of folk (maybe a huge number who knows?) are sick to the back teeth of ‘partygate’, think Starmer & Rayner weren’t much different in Durham (they were economical with the truth shall we say), see that Zelinsky is a fan and so will in all probability just put a cross on the ballot paper next to his name.

They realise he’s not to blame for Covid, the inflated prices - they are struggling all over Europe, the price of diesel at the pumps. They will forgive him and vote for him if (and I suppose it’s a big ‘if’) he manages to turn things by the time of a GE in 2 years’ time. He is regarded by many as ‘a lucky General’.

Time will tell. It will be interesting seeing how things pan out.

Yes I am sure we will be pretty shocked.

Been reading quite a bit over the last couple of days and the general view is that he won’t lose the vote if it comes to that as they have none of any real merit to replace him. Blimey, if the Tory party can’t find anyone better than Johnson - that is grim.

Pondering upon it all yet again last night it dawned on me that when Johnson has gone an awful lot of stuff will come out about him, both of his personal life but also of the way he has achieved power and what he has done with it. History will not be judging this man or his supporters kindly.

As above. I actually said they couldn't! Typo

The Conservative party are finished. The could organise a p... up in a brewery... Oops sorry of course they could!

Germanshepherdsmum

Maybe you should check Raab’s educational achievements and former career before calling him ‘dim’.

I wouldn't call him "dim", but I don't see anything very special in his educational achievements or career.

Must share this. We all know that Johnson has tried to have people in his cabinet with less competence and ability than he had, and of course has largely succeeded.

Someone commented.

“ imagine Nadine Dorries became prime minister, what would her government even look like”

???

Glorianny

I've just thought NOT Priti Patel. I'd rather stick with Johnston!!!!

Oh dear God in Heaven!?
You’re quite right. What a blooming shower

I've just thought NOT Priti Patel. I'd rather stick with Johnston!!!!

I don’t think it’s helpful or accurate to call ministers dim (well maybe Nadine Dorries who shows regular evidence of being so). People say it of Johnson when he is anything but. Raab has good academic and professional qualifications. It’s his beliefs which worry me. No need to quote chapter and verse. His Wiki profile explains it far better than I could.

Most recently, he’s been exposed and heavily criticised by the Foreign Affairs Committee for his failed leadership and mishandling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I don’t think he is popular in the party. He finished sixth in the 2019 leadership contest and went on to support Johnson’s bid which will make him unpopular in some circles in this current leadership crisis.

He popularity in his own constituency shows serious decline. In the 2015 general election, he retained his Esher and Walton seat with a majority of 28,000 votes. In the 2017 general election, his majority was reduced to 23,000. In the 2019 general election his majority was only 2,743. That’s extraordinary for one of the most expensive places to live outside of London with some areas dubbed Britain’s Beverley Hills. Average property prices have been estimated in excess of £1m. If the LibDems put up another strong candidate in the next GE, I could see him losing his seat.

Highest level of incompetence…..?

Maybe you should check Raab’s educational achievements and former career before calling him ‘dim’.

25Avalon - Heaven save us from Raab! I have it on good authority from someone who had to deal with him and brief him in one of his previous roles that he's really dim. he had to have simple stuff explained over and over again.

I remember when BoJo was in hospital Raab looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights and was petrified of being called on to take over for any length of time. Luckily for us all he didn't have to.

Remember - he and his Cabinet colleagues were only chosen because of their incompetence and to make BoJo look good. The way different ones are wheeled out every day (Nadine D today) to defend BoJo is pathetic. They'd lose their jobs if BoJo went so of course they are going to defend him to the hilt.

It's an insult to most people's intelligence if they imagine that voters can't see through that.

Perhaps Penny Mordaunt stands a good chance as I don't think she's put her foot in yet.

Glorianny

He won't go unless someone steps up who can replace him successfully. Jeremy Hunt has such an unfortunate name and invites comedy, Rishi is now just a rich boy, May has failed once, will Gove be resurrected? They all fail the popularity test. As for newer MPs who's heard of most of them?

Do you mean popular with the public, or within the party Glorianny, as they seem to be two completely different things?

What about Raab?