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News & politics

The U.K. 2022

(553 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Wed 10-Aug-22 09:52:05

If you have made the mistake of following the Tory leadership election then you will, presuming you suspended your disbelief, now know that we are facing a bright future under Liz Truss, where growth, prosperity, light touch regulation, low tax and strong international trade will deliver us all we have ever aspired to.

In fact, more than that, the climate crisis will, under her rule, be so insignificant it can be ignored; the rule of law will no longer be required; every town, village and hamlet will be a freeport making its own regulations and laws under the benign guidance of a company given the task of doing so; and the land will flow with milk and honey.

None of this is true, of course.

This morning we have news of drought and the risk of hose pipe bans and even outright water shortages.

There is also a warning of power cust to come this winter as electricity supply will not meet demand.

Avanti has just axed two-thirds of its train services on the West Coast mainline.

Six million people are waiting for NHS treatment.

Half the UK's households do not know how they will pay their fuel bills when the average energy price increases to £4,200pa this winter. The likelihood that many will simply be unable to pay is high.

As a consequence, the rest of the economy is under severe threat of recession.

A banking crisis is possible as rents go unpaid, landlords fail to service their debts, joining those mortgage holders who will be in the same boat.

Schools and hospitals face impossible choices due to their increasing energy costs this winter.

Hardly talked about, but something I fear greatly is the risk that many care homes - which have to be warm - will simply be unable to afford to carry on trading this winter as those they p[provide for cannot pay increased bills, creating a massive care crisis.

It is actually quite hard to think of anything that is working well in the UK now, and which is not at risk of failure quite soon.

The Tory leadership election is taking place in some fantasy space created by a political party wholly out of touch with reality. The difficulty is that one of those taking part - and making the absurd promises on offer to the Tory party faithful, will be governing us soon. There is little sign that they will embrace reality then.

We are in deep, deep trouble.

Richard Murphy
10/08/22

MaizieD Thu 18-Aug-22 11:46:36

^ Why will nationalising the Big 5 help? They have to pay market prices.^

They also have to pay huge salaries to their executives and dividends to their shareholders. Nationalisation can curb the first expense and completely cut out the second.

DaisyAnne Thu 18-Aug-22 10:23:27

Katie59

The Problem is that energy prices are too high, I was suggesting the energy producers might be nationalized, they are mostly UK based - Nuclear, Offshore Gas, Renewable. Then costs could be controlled to a large extent, currently they are free to charge whatever they can get. I’m not sure how the £2.85bn was calculated, taking over the energy industry has to be valued at a lot more than that.

This is where I wonder about the cost. To me, this should be about, as you say Katie nationalising the producers. I would have thought that, although a larger entity could influence the cost of energy, it could not be able to bring it down to only a 5% increase. The reason France can, for instance, is because they are so much more self-sufficient.

You would have to be setting about this self-sufficiently for it to work. If you had self-sufficiency, you would not need to nationalise the companies, although you could choose to.

If we are going to invest, and if nationalising could be nearer to £0, I would have thought we should be demanding the investment in the provision, not distribution.

DaisyAnne Thu 18-Aug-22 10:11:16

Whitewavemark2

This tweeted by Dr. Moderate

Nationalisations are usually achieved via a bond swap - newly created government bonds are exchanged for shares of the same value. The net cost on the government balance sheet is not £2.85bn, it's zero.

Who is Dr Moderate Whitewave? As a non-economist, I would say that look right.

Thank you to all who have brought the knowledge of those who know about these things to the table.

I still feel less than sure about nationalisation. Why will nationalising the Big 5 help? They have to pay market prices.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 18-Aug-22 10:05:16

You know how the Tories keep burbling on about less regulation and red tape?

The foul state of our sea and beaches and rivers are the result, and the EA is severely limited in its power to prevent it happening.

The water companies laugh all the way to the bank, and I can’t register my profound unhappiness by changing my supplier.

Iam64 Thu 18-Aug-22 09:36:02

It just gets worse. Sewage with possible polio in our sea and the water company leaves it to customers to decide if it’s safe.
Good law project needed there

Whitewavemark2 Thu 18-Aug-22 09:12:02

Just joining a few dots.

Last week reported that polio has been found in sewerage.

This week raw sewerage has been pumped into the sea.

Katie59 Thu 18-Aug-22 08:56:37

The Problem is that energy prices are too high, I was suggesting the energy producers might be nationalized, they are mostly UK based - Nuclear, Offshore Gas, Renewable. Then costs could be controlled to a large extent, currently they are free to charge whatever they can get. I’m not sure how the £2.85bn was calculated, taking over the energy industry has to be valued at a lot more than that.

Fleurpepper Thu 18-Aug-22 08:51:24

This is just so appalling.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 18-Aug-22 08:39:49

Oh good.

Southern Water spokesperson has told those wanting to go for a swim in the sea off the south coast to decide for themselves if it is safe to do so.

They so need taking into public ownership.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 18-Aug-22 08:36:51

Zonne

That’s gas in the US, which is petrol, so not relevant at all GG13

Yep you are correct, my error.

I should really learn not to Google without my glasses and post before getting up to find them.

Zonne Thu 18-Aug-22 08:25:17

That’s gas in the US, which is petrol, so not relevant at all GG13

GrannyGravy13 Thu 18-Aug-22 08:15:57

MaizieD

What do OPEC have to do with gas prices? It's the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

This

Whitewavemark2 Thu 18-Aug-22 08:11:02

This tweeted by Dr. Moderate

Nationalisations are usually achieved via a bond swap - newly created government bonds are exchanged for shares of the same value. The net cost on the government balance sheet is not £2.85bn, it's zero.

MaizieD Wed 17-Aug-22 22:03:48

What do OPEC have to do with gas prices? It's the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

GrannyGravy13 Wed 17-Aug-22 20:52:33

OPEC sets the price for gas & oil, the generators cannot go below the set price as far as I understand.

Dinahmo Wed 17-Aug-22 20:46:27

Katie59

Nationalized energy worked when almost all Electricity and Gas was produced from coal, home produced, as indeed it does in France today. Today there are dozens of energy suppliers, in effect the government would have to nationalize them as well and I don’t see the massive cost of that being an option for any government.

I really hate having to search each year for energy supplies it was so much easier when you had one regulated supplier.

There is a difference between the energy suppliers to the consumers and the wholesalers like Centrica. The suppliers to the consumers are like the old supply Boards and the wholesales are like the generating Boards. At the moment it's the wholesalers that are causing the problems.

Grany Wed 17-Aug-22 20:10:22

We need public ownership of energy companies and wealth tax now.

Grany Wed 17-Aug-22 20:00:42

www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-07/Public%20energy%20public%20paper%20-%20web.pdf

MayBee70 Wed 17-Aug-22 19:40:30

I sent a friend request to someone who a friend of mine said I would like because of a shared interest. But I have realised that she’s on Facebook pages that I didn’t know existed. Eg the Enoch Powell Appreciation group. It’s a bit of an eye opener and has really freaked me out. The content and the comments are terrifying. What has this country turned into?

Katie59 Wed 17-Aug-22 19:10:25

Nationalized energy worked when almost all Electricity and Gas was produced from coal, home produced, as indeed it does in France today. Today there are dozens of energy suppliers, in effect the government would have to nationalize them as well and I don’t see the massive cost of that being an option for any government.

I really hate having to search each year for energy supplies it was so much easier when you had one regulated supplier.

Dinahmo Wed 17-Aug-22 18:50:03

Anne Widdecombe was saying on J Vine this morning that the money that would be spent on "temporary" re-nationalisation would be better spent on handouts to the poorer people. This seems absolute nonsense to me.

We should re-nationlise water and gas and electricity asap. The costs would probably be high but once done, it's done and we should never need to face high prices again. No doubt people will say that it is placing a financial burden on future generations but that is better than handing money over every year.

These companies have had bailouts from the govt as have the rail companies. I suggest that those bailouts should be reclaimed from their profits.

Casdon Wed 17-Aug-22 18:17:08

MaizieD

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2

Tory voters agreeing with Gordon Brown

“More than two-thirds of Conservative voters say that the government should temporarily renationalise energy companies if they cannot offer lower bills”

Has the so called temporary privatisation been costed?

Grany posted somewhere that the TUC have costed renationalisation at £2.5 billion. It seems a bit low to me.

There's an interesting article about the privatisation of water in the Guardian yesterday. By Jonathon Portes, an economist who actually worked on it at the time.

So how did we get it so wrong? I mean me, not you. I was a very junior Treasury official working on the water privatisation project, responsible for securing value for money for taxpayers and water consumers. In retrospect, we utterly failed on both counts: the shares were sold well below their value so taxpayers lost out, and consumers have paid through the nose ever since. But this is not just hindsight. We knew what was going on, because water privatisation was never really about efficiency. In the short term, the overriding political priority was a “successful” sale – one where demand for shares was high – and where those who applied and who had, from previous privatisations, already come to expect a large premium, were not disappointed.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/16/i-worked-on-privatisation-england-water-1989-failed-regime

I’ve found this. The TUC is talking about the energy companies rather than water, there is a rationale based on the fact that the energy provision is only part of the business of the companies - it seems like a huge assumption.
www.tuc.org.uk/research-analysis/reports/fairer-energy-system-families-and-climate

Philippa111 Wed 17-Aug-22 17:58:36

B J is a certifiable narcissist and his behaviour is commensurate with one. They crave power and attention and couldn't care less about anyone else but themselves. They take everything and give nothing back and lie to save face and their status quo.
Why anyone expects any other behaviour from him is beyond me. Bless peoples shear optimism against all the evidence!

And Ms Truss should be trussed and roasted...and even then she would still be just as unpalatable!

Just another Tory leader to not truss-t!

GrannyGravy13 Wed 17-Aug-22 16:46:23

Thank you for the link MaizieD

MaizieD Wed 17-Aug-22 16:41:06

GrannyGravy13

MaizieD I have missed Granys post, do you think that the sum of £2.5 billion is just for temporary privatisation of the utilities (water, gas & electric) until the crises ease, as opposed to a permanent nationalisation?

I think it's just for water, and it is for permanent renationalisation. I can't find a direct link to the TUC that explains how they arrive at that figure.

Estimates vary, anything from £90billion to the TUC's £2.5 billion. Moodys extimates £14.5 billion. That sounds doable...

www.h2obuildingservices.co.uk/news/h2o-building-services/water-industry-h2o-building-services/