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Shock result of latest polling

(118 Posts)
Granny23 Thu 09-Feb-23 10:39:14

A NEW poll has found that the Conservatives would become Westminster’s third party behind the SNP in a snap election. A poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph found that if there were an imminent General Election then the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP.

This would mean that SNP Leader, Stephen Flynn would become the leader of the opposition. The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote while the Tories would win just 23 per cent.

The style of polling used means results could be calculated in individual seats. The SNP would win 50 MPs according to results while the Tories would have just 45, down from 365.
Meanwhile, the new polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 available.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23 while Plaid Cymru and the Greens would be unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.

The polling was carried out from January 27 to February 5.
On a seat-by-seat basis, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as well as ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Chief executive of Find Out Now Chris Holbrook told the newspaper that the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”'
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:57:31

I don't think you really understand what service industries are.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:57:02

No Katie I don't think I am. By the way, I assume you realise that my income is in the bottom decile. I'm way below the poverty line.

Katie59 Mon 20-Feb-23 22:48:47

growstuff

Katie59

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

What do you mean by "so called"? What else would you like the provision of services to be called?

Providing services to other people benefits everybody's lifestyle. .

Try telling that to be 23% of the population below the poverty line. Or nurses that are struggling with real wage cuts, you are so out of touch.

growstuff Mon 20-Feb-23 22:32:19

Katie59

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

What do you mean by "so called"? What else would you like the provision of services to be called?

Providing services to other people benefits everybody's lifestyle. .

MaggsMcG Mon 20-Feb-23 19:04:06

Its a well known fact that people don't always tell the truth when asked these questions. It could be completely wrong.
I think the Labour Party will win. No one trusts the Conservatives any more. Its time anyway for a change. Just a matter of time Brexit and Covid have just made it inevitable.

Katie59 Sun 19-Feb-23 23:47:02

I want the government to borrow more to expand the economy, in recent times it has borrowed to support the population, as far as I can see that is going to continue with no proper business plan.

That does not mean more employment it means better employment by the use of new technology and automation. The so called service economy has only resulted in a decline in living standards especially for the poorest, or can someone point were it has benefited us

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 14:38:16

MaizieD

Some 50 years ago, when I was at college, a lecturer pointed out that that state 'benefits' kept money circulating in the economy. That that was a good reason for introducing them.
It seemed so obvious that I just don't understand why people cannot grasp this fact.

What does Katie59 want? That people who can't 'earn' their money, or who are too old or ill to work, are left to starve? That the economy contracts even further so more people are put out of work?

Some of the poorest people do work anyway, providing profits for those in the upper echelons.

Grantanow Sun 19-Feb-23 14:37:32

The poll result is hardly a shock given the state of the economy, energy prices, cost of living, Brexit mess ups, etc. after 13 years of inept Tory government - 5 PMs in 14 years must be a record for a Party in chaos.

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 14:36:09

The ONS reckons that prostitution and illegal drugs contribute £10 billion a year to GDP. So there's an idea! Increase growth by setting up a business selling crack and selling your body. If you can't sell your own body, set up a porn site!

Growth really is a silly measure of a country's wealth.

Aveline Sun 19-Feb-23 14:33:45

Yes I hope Labour will win the next general election across the whole UK. Time for better governance especially in Scotland. Let's work together for the benefit of all our people.

Callistemon21 Sun 19-Feb-23 14:19:32

jenpax

Zoejory

I don't think it's a shock. Labour will win the next election.

Lets hope so! Its hardly a surprise the Tories are so unpopular!

Two life-time Tory voters told me last week that they would vote Labour is there is an election soon.

😲

MaizieD Sun 19-Feb-23 14:12:22

Some 50 years ago, when I was at college, a lecturer pointed out that that state 'benefits' kept money circulating in the economy. That that was a good reason for introducing them.
It seemed so obvious that I just don't understand why people cannot grasp this fact.

What does Katie59 want? That people who can't 'earn' their money, or who are too old or ill to work, are left to starve? That the economy contracts even further so more people are put out of work?

growstuff Sun 19-Feb-23 12:57:14

Katie59

If government money creates growth that is good, most of of does not, if it is used to buy food or pay rent or buy new shoes for the kids, it provides very little growth or tax revenue. With nearly 1/4 of the population below the official poverty line most of the borrowing is being used to support them.

Most growth is being achieve by commercial and domestic borrowing, most of us have a loan to buy a house a car, or most large items. State borrowing that provides commercial growth or tax revenue is very limited

How do you work that one out?

Of course money spent on food and new shoes can create growth. I don't even know where to start with this argument.

Maybe you'd like to explain what you understand by growth and just why it's inevitably a good thing.

It is absolute nonsense to claim that most borrowing supports people below the poverty line. Again, maybe you'd like to explain.

I don't think you even understand what state borrowing entails and what happens to the money "borrowed".

Fereshtay Sun 19-Feb-23 12:48:08

Yes. Definetly Labour will win the next election

jenpax Sun 12-Feb-23 09:49:19

Zoejory

I don't think it's a shock. Labour will win the next election.

Lets hope so! Its hardly a surprise the Tories are so unpopular!

Katie59 Sun 12-Feb-23 09:35:38

If government money creates growth that is good, most of of does not, if it is used to buy food or pay rent or buy new shoes for the kids, it provides very little growth or tax revenue. With nearly 1/4 of the population below the official poverty line most of the borrowing is being used to support them.

Most growth is being achieve by commercial and domestic borrowing, most of us have a loan to buy a house a car, or most large items. State borrowing that provides commercial growth or tax revenue is very limited

growstuff Sun 12-Feb-23 07:52:16

PS. If the government creates money, what do you think happens to it? It creates growth! The problem comes when a government is reluctant to get it back by taxing and/or lets people who will squirrel it away get hold of it.

growstuff Sun 12-Feb-23 07:49:13

Which far-left economists? I assume you're back to your hobbyhorse about MMT. Economists who actually know how the economy works (ie not like a household budget) have a range of political views - some don't have party political views at all.

Ironically, Truss' and Kwarteng's big plan would have "created" more money than Labour ever will. The Conservatives have "created" more money over the last couple of years than any government in history. They're hardly "far left"!

DaisyAnne Sun 12-Feb-23 07:40:20

growstuff

MaizieD

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

I suspect that some of them do know. However, it suits their agenda to peddle the household budget line.

I expect all those at the top of their party to have access to the very knowledgeable where the economy is concerned.

It's economics by ideology that is the issue. On one extreme, you have the "you haven't paid in enough so we can't do it, but we can tax wealth less and you may get a crumb out of that" lot who think the only way of growing the wealth of the country is to grow the wealth of individuals and profit makers who are already wealthy.

On the other extreme, those trying to convince us that just because we print or electronically create the money, we can spend what we like, even if it outstrips our own economic growth or expected growth. Also, we do not see the need to show the rest of the world what they need to know to support us. Everyone else, apparently, is too stupid to know the new Messiah has risen.

While the Conservatives have moved far enough right to accept their extremist's views (so far), I don't think Starmer, et al have moved as far to the left as much as their far-left economists would like to push them.

growstuff Sat 11-Feb-23 20:40:56

MaizieD

I wouldn't mind some MPs who actually know how a national economy works... That would be novel...

I suspect that some of them do know. However, it suits their agenda to peddle the household budget line.

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 20:31:26

MaizieD

ronib

Daisy Anne sorry I didn’t think about presentation of the data. Just pointing out that some mps do have formal degrees in economics and politics . Bit puzzling really.

If you mean they have PPE degrees they really seem to mean sweet F A.

www.theguardian.com/education/2013/sep/23/ppe-passport-power-degree-oxford

It was in the Guardian, Maizie. All newspapers have their bias.

I certainly admit to wishing we had a team that spent more time running things than playing politics.

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 19:17:39

MaizieD I was just looking up the syllabus for PEP at Oxford. For once we are in complete agreement. What a ragbag!

MaizieD Sat 11-Feb-23 18:56:31

ronib

Daisy Anne sorry I didn’t think about presentation of the data. Just pointing out that some mps do have formal degrees in economics and politics . Bit puzzling really.

If you mean they have PPE degrees they really seem to mean sweet F A.

www.theguardian.com/education/2013/sep/23/ppe-passport-power-degree-oxford

ronib Sat 11-Feb-23 18:48:19

Daisy Anne sorry I didn’t think about presentation of the data. Just pointing out that some mps do have formal degrees in economics and politics . Bit puzzling really.

DaisyAnne Sat 11-Feb-23 17:58:38

Casdon

‘But I would still ask the question, Why was this article in this paper and what is their aim in it being there in such a hyped manner. I really do not think it was to help the Labour Party win, not do I think it was on a whim, with no intention.’

This DaisyAnne. I had read your previous posts, but to be honest I don’t understand what you’re trying to get across, what your own view is. All media has a bias, surely?

Sorry I haven't written so you can understand what I am saying Casdon. It may become clear over time - or not.