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Shock result of latest polling

(117 Posts)
Granny23 Thu 09-Feb-23 10:39:14

A NEW poll has found that the Conservatives would become Westminster’s third party behind the SNP in a snap election. A poll of 28,000 people for The Telegraph found that if there were an imminent General Election then the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP.

This would mean that SNP Leader, Stephen Flynn would become the leader of the opposition. The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote while the Tories would win just 23 per cent.

The style of polling used means results could be calculated in individual seats. The SNP would win 50 MPs according to results while the Tories would have just 45, down from 365.
Meanwhile, the new polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 available.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23 while Plaid Cymru and the Greens would be unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.

The polling was carried out from January 27 to February 5.
On a seat-by-seat basis, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as well as ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Chief executive of Find Out Now Chris Holbrook told the newspaper that the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”'
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.

Zoejory Thu 09-Feb-23 10:44:04

I don't think it's a shock. Labour will win the next election.

MaizieD Thu 09-Feb-23 10:50:57

It's not exactly a shock. Poll results, translated to seats won, have been predicting this sort of result (perhaps with not such a dramatic loss of seats) for the past few months.

After the appalling damage they have done to the country in the past 40+ years I would be very happy to see the tories completely obliterated, but I don't think that would really be very healthy for democracy, any more than would be a Labour majority of the predicted magnitude.

However, I think that things could change nearer to the time, though not to the extent of the tories regaining power.

paddyann54 Thu 09-Feb-23 10:56:06

Its expected ,despite the media stories about support for the SNP and Independence we see the opposite happening .People are on their knees due to WM policies Tories SUPPORTED by labour ...keir Hardie will be spinning in his grave .
The current nonsense about Nicola Sturgeon is just that nonsense,she is still the best politician in the UK and has been working to get us back into the EU .....yes it will happen as son as we gain our independence .The news of us down south is just spin ans lies ...no surpise in that either .
Look back at the lies we were told in 2014 by unionist parties !!t

MayBee70 Thu 09-Feb-23 11:11:03

They said on the TRIP podcast that Labour shouldn’t be complacent. I think that the SNP need to realise that not everyone in Scotland wants independence and there might be a swing to Labour. One of the reasons we have this disastrously government is that Labour lost the Scottish vote and that has been bad for everyone.

Casdon Thu 09-Feb-23 11:16:57

That’s what the polls in Scotland are saying Maybee70, there’s been a downturn in SNP and independence support in the last few weeks, so it’s going to depend on the situation when the election actually takes place I think.
I agree that Labour shouldn’t be complacent about results anywhere because there will doubtless be a lot more water under the bridge and the voting public are fickle. Avoid big talk is my feeling, for all parties.

Callistemon21 Thu 09-Feb-23 11:29:54

MayBee70

They said on the TRIP podcast that Labour shouldn’t be complacent. I think that the SNP need to realise that not everyone in Scotland wants independence and there might be a swing to Labour. One of the reasons we have this disastrously government is that Labour lost the Scottish vote and that has been bad for everyone.

One of the reasons we have this disastrously government is that Labour lost the Scottish vote and that has been bad for everyone

When I said that a long time ago on here, I got ridiculed, Maybeee, but yes, I agree. It hasn't helped.

And we mustn't forget that the SNP helped bring about a Tory Government under Mrs Thatcher when SNP votes helped bring down a minority Labour government in a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons.

Ilovecheese Thu 09-Feb-23 11:47:43

I think I would be happy with a result like this. The main opposition party would be to the left of Starmer so at least there would not be a right wing Govt and a less right wing opposition as is the case at present.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 09-Feb-23 11:55:54

The chances of an early election are minimal, I cannot see the Conservatives forming the next Government.

I will await the results.

MayBee70 Thu 09-Feb-23 12:24:03

Whatever happens, and I say this as someone desperate for a Labour government, huge majorities* are dangerous and we always need a strong opposition.
*or even Marjorie’s that auto correct seems to be worried about confused ( they’re dangerous them Marjorie’s, especially the huge ones….)

Katie59 Thu 09-Feb-23 12:34:31

There will be an election at the end of next year and don’t think it will be a foregone result it could easily end up as a coalition.
No point in anyone speculating at present

Aveline Thu 09-Feb-23 12:44:53

I'm very keen for a Labour governmentespecially in Scotland after the disastrous reign of SNP.

mostlyharmless Thu 09-Feb-23 13:05:40

I’m trying to get my head round this. Amazing news if it’s anything like accurate.
There are 59 Westminster seats for Scottish constituencies. Which party would take those 9 seats that SNP don’t win?
What would happen with the Green Party? And the LibDems?
Wouldn’t a new right wing party emerge in this scenario?
Yes it would destabilise our two party system.
Scotland might achieve independence so it would also destabilise our United Kingdom.
Roll on the next election. Apparently GDP is growing more slowly under this government than since the 1820s! We’re going backwards.

MayBee70 Thu 09-Feb-23 14:22:35

I hope the electorate understand how long it’s going to take to rebuild our country.

Wheniwasyourage Thu 09-Feb-23 14:28:54

One problem is, just as in the Brexit referendum, too many people might think that a Labour government is a foregone conclusion and so will not bother to vote.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 09-Feb-23 14:33:52

MayBee70

Whatever happens, and I say this as someone desperate for a Labour government, huge majorities* are dangerous and we always need a strong opposition.
*or even Marjorie’s that auto correct seems to be worried about confused ( they’re dangerous them Marjorie’s, especially the huge ones….)

What I would like to see is say the Lib-dems get enough seats so that in order to govern the LP will need their cooperation.

Then I would like the LDs to insist of a form of PR .

Belarus and the U.K. are the only countries in Europe with such an antiquated voting system.

MayBee70 Thu 09-Feb-23 14:37:14

We need a written constitution too don’t we? Everything in this country was based on people behaving honourably. But I’m afraid the age of chivalry is no more.

varian Thu 09-Feb-23 18:15:14

Wheniwasyourage

One problem is, just as in the Brexit referendum, too many people might think that a Labour government is a foregone conclusion and so will not bother to vote.

The Labour supporters who may not vote will include those without photo ID.

I think that the gerrymandering of constituency boundaries, the photo ID regulations, the huge backing for the Tory Party by 80% of the national newspapers and the colossal financial resources of the right wing "think tanks" funded by who knows????, but quite likely to be foreign billionaires who most definitely do not have the best interests of the UK at heart - all combined with the fact that Sunak is not Johnson and most certainly not Truss - could mean that support from voters for the Tories at the next election should never be underestimated.-

Oreo Thu 09-Feb-23 22:08:47

Way too early to predict anything

Grantanow Fri 10-Feb-23 10:21:19

It's very good news that Labour is on track to become the next government. Even Dorries is running to a new job. I don't care who is in opposition. I care about our public services being improved though Labour will have to struggle with the mess the Tories are going to leave behind. We shall all need a degree of patience and be prepared to re-elect Labour to get the job done.

Callistemon21 Fri 10-Feb-23 10:47:12

We shall all need a degree of patience and be prepared to re-elect Labour to get the job done

I doubt you'll get all to vote for Labour in a month of Sundays.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 10-Feb-23 10:59:07

MayBee70

We need a written constitution too don’t we? Everything in this country was based on people behaving honourably. But I’m afraid the age of chivalry is no more.

Yes

Whitewavemark2 Fri 10-Feb-23 11:00:27

varian

Wheniwasyourage

One problem is, just as in the Brexit referendum, too many people might think that a Labour government is a foregone conclusion and so will not bother to vote.

The Labour supporters who may not vote will include those without photo ID.

I think that the gerrymandering of constituency boundaries, the photo ID regulations, the huge backing for the Tory Party by 80% of the national newspapers and the colossal financial resources of the right wing "think tanks" funded by who knows????, but quite likely to be foreign billionaires who most definitely do not have the best interests of the UK at heart - all combined with the fact that Sunak is not Johnson and most certainly not Truss - could mean that support from voters for the Tories at the next election should never be underestimated.-

Yes.

Chickens must not be counted.

Nothing is certain.

Casdon Fri 10-Feb-23 11:04:24

Whitewavemark2

varian

Wheniwasyourage

One problem is, just as in the Brexit referendum, too many people might think that a Labour government is a foregone conclusion and so will not bother to vote.

The Labour supporters who may not vote will include those without photo ID.

I think that the gerrymandering of constituency boundaries, the photo ID regulations, the huge backing for the Tory Party by 80% of the national newspapers and the colossal financial resources of the right wing "think tanks" funded by who knows????, but quite likely to be foreign billionaires who most definitely do not have the best interests of the UK at heart - all combined with the fact that Sunak is not Johnson and most certainly not Truss - could mean that support from voters for the Tories at the next election should never be underestimated.-

Yes.

Chickens must not be counted.

Nothing is certain.

At the moment the Tories are slaughtering their chickens, whilst Labour are sitting on their eggs rather than counting their chickens. Let’s hope they hatch. 🐓

Granmarderby10 Fri 10-Feb-23 11:24:27

Absolute Power corrupts absolutely.
Sad to say this but within a very short period of time in 1997, Tony Blair proved this.
They had won with a landslide victory as I and everyone else it seemed (but the Tories) knew would happen.
I was jubilant at first but soon I began to worry about the new governments inability to tolerate criticism and protest.