Budget Day

Germanshepherdsmum

Do you expect the new childcare provisions to be put in place overnight?

Under this government, I don’t expect them to be put in place at all.

Germanshepherdsmum

Part of the childcare provisions announced in the budget are incentives to recruit more carers, who are desperately needed, and a reduction in the carer/child ratio. It’s by no means all jam tomorrow.

I don’t understand what you mean Germanshepherdsmum, this is the plan:

Working parents of two-year-olds will be able to access 15 hours of free care from April 2024, helping around half a million parents.
‘From September 2024, that 15 hours will be extended to all children from 9 months up, meaning a total of nearly one million parents will be eligible.
‘And from September 2025 every single working parent of under 5s will have access to 30 hours free childcare per week.’

Where is the jam today?

I read this as nothing at all before April 2024, and no parents of under twos getting 30 hours support until September 2025 - so the children who will benefit from 30 hours support aren’t even born yet.

Germanshepherdsmum

In your opinion.

😂😂😂

In your opinion.

Germanshepherdsmum

Then recruitment incentives may be helpful. There was a thread the other day about the cost of childcare, the government tries to do something and, as per, is met by nothing but criticism and negativity.

It's not trying very hard.

It knows it's not going to be in government in 2025, anyway.

I’m sure I just caught a snippet from Keir Starmer saying pension provisions for ££million input could have been drawn up for the NHS doctor’s without for all the

Grantanow

But Wes Streeting argued earlier that the pension cap should be abolished to help keep senior doctors working.

This from the FT today

Reeves said a Labour government would reinstate the lifetime allowance and create a targeted scheme for doctors rather than allowing a “free-for-all for the wealthy few”.

www.ft.com/content/8da13a9d-f44f-4ac0-b06d-f21dca4694d4 (paywalled)

Then recruitment incentives may be helpful. There was a thread the other day about the cost of childcare, the government tries to do something and, as per, is met by nothing but criticism and negativity.

Germanshepherdsmum

Who says there aren’t any around?

The nursery owners, who find it difficult to recruit.

Who says there aren’t any around?

How can more carers be recruited, if there aren't any around?

I wonder if Hunt has actually consulted with nurseries, who are going to have to find thousands of new places (when there's a shortage already) and FE colleges, who will have to provide courses?

Part of the childcare provisions announced in the budget are incentives to recruit more carers, who are desperately needed, and a reduction in the carer/child ratio. It’s by no means all jam tomorrow.

Does it really take DWP two and a half years to introduce child care for 9 months to 2 children when they already have a template from the 3 to 4 functioning scheme. One suspects electioneering.

But Wes Streeting argued earlier that the pension cap should be abolished to help keep senior doctors working.

And there aren’t a million of them anyway as I pointed out in an earlier post. It’s smoke and mirrors.

Well, Casdon, you know how ministers like to think in Big Figures. Like those billions of people all about to invade the UK in small boats...

MaizieD

Germanshepherdsmum

Do you expect the new childcare provisions to be put in place overnight?

No, because as others have pointed out, there is already a shortage of nursery places, the places paid for now by parents of children younger than three actually subsidise the 'free' nursery places because what the government pays for them isn't sufficient to cover costs, so, unless the government pays more for each place nurseries aren't gong to be viable to run.

But if it is to have any influence on the way that parents of young children vote it would start before the next election. Labour could well retain or gain their votes by topping the offer in their manifesto to ensure that nurseries remain viable and enough places are available.

If Labour did that you might say that both parties were offering 'jam tomorrow', but Labour would be offering more jam...

Deferring the opportunity for parents of younger children to return to work isn't going to do much to grow the economy over the next 18 months.

And there aren’t a million of them anyway as I pointed out in an earlier post. It’s smoke and mirrors.

Germanshepherdsmum

Do you expect the new childcare provisions to be put in place overnight?

No, because as others have pointed out, there is already a shortage of nursery places, the places paid for now by parents of children younger than three actually subsidise the 'free' nursery places because what the government pays for them isn't sufficient to cover costs, so, unless the government pays more for each place nurseries aren't gong to be viable to run.

But if it is to have any influence on the way that parents of young children vote it would start before the next election. Labour could well retain or gain their votes by topping the offer in their manifesto to ensure that nurseries remain viable and enough places are available.

If Labour did that you might say that both parties were offering 'jam tomorrow', but Labour would be offering more jam...

Deferring the opportunity for parents of younger children to return to work isn't going to do much to grow the economy over the next 18 months.

Do you expect the new childcare provisions to be put in place overnight?

Germanshepherdsmum

A magic money tree for the rich? What about the spending on childcare for working families?

By 2025. After the next election. It’s passing the buck for problems at best, fantasy solutions at worst. It does nothing for working families now. It does nothing to help, even when/if it arrives anyone working less than 16 hours a week (likely to be the poorest).

The energy price cap remaining at £2,500 looks like a giveaway - but only if you ignore that a year ago it was £1.300.

The OBR is forecasting the largest sustained fall in living standards since the mid-1950s.

The tax threshold is not increasing, which penalises those on lower incomes disproportionately.

But the pension cap tax changes are a £27,000 a year tax saving, for example, for those who’ve reached their upper limit and start saving again. The main beneficiaries who aren’t there yet will be those earning over £240,000 per annum (who probably aren’t fretting over how to pay their gas bill or childcare costs).

Other posters have already provided the figures for what this one tax change will cost.

So yes, a magic money tree for the rich.

Whitewavemark2

Hunts bizarre “Brexit pubs guarantee” of a freeze on duty on beer, failed to mention that the OBR has reported that Brexit has has a substantial negative impact on growth, productivity, trade and investment

Productivity reduced by 4%

Trade reduced by 15%

Investment stagnated since 2016

From what I have read, the beer Brexit bonus is nonsense anyway; it is to stop supermarkets from undercutting pubs in the price of draught ales. Supermarkets don't sell draught. Small detail there.

Germanshepherdsmum

A magic money tree for the rich? What about the spending on childcare for working families?

That's the "jam tomorrow" - it will be interesting to see what happens in practice. There will need to be a huge expansion in childcare provision and the amount the government funds nurseries will have to be realistic. At the moment, nurseries subsidise free places for 3+ year olds by charging high fees for the younger children, but they won't be able to do that in the future.

It doesn't help parents now, but it might help some just before the next election - hmmm!

Germanshepherdsmum

A magic money tree for the rich? What about the spending on childcare for working families?

A question of supply and demand though isn’t it?

The demand is there but lack government funding has ensured that many nurseries are going into liquidation x so supply is lacking.

So there is a headline grabber, which isn’t being followed through. Always supposing it ever happens - remember there is an election next year.

A magic money tree for the rich? What about the spending on childcare for working families?

Odd how the Tories can always find a magic money tree for the rich.

I wonder if this budget - which looks like a giveaway budget on the surface, although it isn’t for most, and which has a lot of ‘jam tomorrow’ - is an indicator of an early general election.

Casdon

Depressing analysis on Sky News this morning.
news.sky.com/story/this-budget-has-done-nothing-to-bring-back-the-feel-good-factor-12834686

That’s because there is absolutely nothing in the budget for 99% of the population.

But the Tories don’t care because they think the votes are all in the immigration issue and that is what they are flogging.