I’m not counting my chickens

The type of fictional rabbit that might be pulled and this is a complete guess, so with apologies….. a massage of the rate of inflation which by some fluke makes everyone suddenly feel better off. It’s the way Jeremy Hunt refers to the rate of inflation which makes me suspicious.
Does feel as if he’s addressing the primary school assembly too.

I’ve found the breed of chicken we will be counting.

I live in a supposedly Labour stronghold. Yet Conservatives won local elections, just shows what a mess Labour councillors made of local needs.

NanaDana

So what's likely to make the difference at the G.E. next time around? Boris and his sleaze? Liz Truss' disastrous two weeks? Starmer's apparent desire to distance Labour from the far left? No Jeremy Corbyn in the picture? Or something that hasn't even surfaced yet? A miraculous economic recovery? Someone said that a week is a long time in politics. There's still plenty of time for more bouquets and bombshells.

The NHS is falling apart and the tories have no time to do anything about it.

Our waterways are being heavily polluted and the tories actually voted to give the water companies years longer in which to clean them up.

The cost of living crisis where people who are struggling can see the tories not attempting to curb profiteering on the part of the energy companies and supermarkets.

There isn't going to be an economic miracle because the tories won't spend money on public services, notably the NHS, and it's state spending that is going to improve the economy. Investors, foreign and local, are reluctant to invest in an economy where there potential customers have very little money to spend and where exporting to our nearest big market has deliberately been made more difficult.

Tories can't pull those rabbits out of the hat because they're ideologically opposed to what it would entail.

Germanshepherdsmum

It wasn’t Ed Davey who won in our local election, it was the LD councillor who’s done sterling work on local issues for years. Nothing to do with party politics. And the area has returned a Conservative MP since the year dot - I haven’t the slightest doubt it will do so again.

It’s about margins though, isn’t it? Very safe seats aren’t likely to change hands, but the vast majority of seats are not so clear cut. If you’ve had an MP of x party for 30 years+ the seat is much less likely to change, so that doesn’t really prove anything. My local seat had a big swing Tory at the 2019 election, but it had been Lib Dem for some years before that. The margin won’t need to be huge for the Lib Dem’s to win that back.

GSM well equally North Norfolk has increased its number of Conservative councillors. Thus bucking the trend.
However just because you live in a very safe Conservative seat, doesn’t mean that marginals won’t move to the Liberals. They might if they have any clout see the sense of bridging the political divide.

It wasn’t Ed Davey who won in our local election, it was the LD councillor who’s done sterling work on local issues for years. Nothing to do with party politics. And the area has returned a Conservative MP since the year dot - I haven’t the slightest doubt it will do so again.

Ed Davey might be the politician with the broadest appeal at the GE? He won 400 ish seats in the locals and this might give him some confidence for the GE. I think the LDs can bridge the gap between extreme left and right and that’s where this country needs to be.

Yes, this will be the case for many Conservatives, always has been.

But I truly and honestly believe that this time is different.

The one issue here, is that as the Conservatives, with this very hard Brexit à la ERG that was never meant to be, + Covid spending (massive amounts to friends of the party- for useless PPE, etc), and the knock on effect of the war in Ukraine, have totally decimated the coffers and more - I know many who are so disgusted with the Tory Party, but fear increases in taxes, etc- which any other party will have to charge to try and redress the course. The damage to be mended is humongous.

Many I know will vote Tory with head bowed in shame- to protect their finances.

ronib

Liberal Democrats maybe will make an impact in the GE next year? I just feel two party politics has had its time. I know that LDs usually do well in the locals but at moment, there’s a change of mindset?

I’ve said it before on this thread, but I don’t think we will have a good picture until the experts have done more detailed analysis by seat (all seats, not just the ones fought for last week). I think the Lib Dem’s will do very well where there’s no/very little Labour presence, it will be a straight fight between them and the Tories and they will win the majority. The map is definitely changing, we could see swathes of the south with Lib Dem seats. However, those aren’t Labour target seats, it will be the Labour/Tory straight fight seats they are looking to win, and some Scottish seats too. I’m not aware of any seats where it’s a Lib Dem/Labour straight fight, although I would guess there are a few.

I always vote for our LD man in local elections because he’s very good with local issues. So does my husband. But we wouldn’t vote LD in a general election. So our votes (and we’re certainly not unique) are no guide to voting patterns in a general election.

Liberal Democrats maybe will make an impact in the GE next year? I just feel two party politics has had its time. I know that LDs usually do well in the locals but at moment, there’s a change of mindset?

So what's likely to make the difference at the G.E. next time around? Boris and his sleaze? Liz Truss' disastrous two weeks? Starmer's apparent desire to distance Labour from the far left? No Jeremy Corbyn in the picture? Or something that hasn't even surfaced yet? A miraculous economic recovery? Someone said that a week is a long time in politics. There's still plenty of time for more bouquets and bombshells.

ronib

Quite honestly if you look at the figures, Labour has not captured the castle.

I think that is fair comment. However, the Tories have had a calamitous result. Labour seems to be slow burning forward, whilst the Tories are falling into the precipice at the moment.

Quite honestly if you look at the figures, Labour has not captured the castle.

MaizieD

I understood there
was only one result left to be decided on Tuesday and that is Teeside, after a third recount in one ward.

There are some extremely dodgy things going on in Teeside and this is just one of them.

What other councils still have to declare?

P.S if you want to know how many seats the tory party had why not add the seats they've lost to the ones the've hung on to?
Or is there a flaw in my maths that I haven't spotted?

You’re right, the tally for each party is at the top of this article.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64966933

Lost 31.5 per cent

Bbc website
Cons lost 1058
Won 2299
Total 3357
31.5 per cent… can’t remember of what

I agree Maizie it was bizarre without such an apparent huge desire for Brexit the Tories wouldn't have had an 80 seat majority. Even Boris is said to have remarked what do we do now?

I understood there
was only one result left to be decided on Tuesday and that is Teeside, after a third recount in one ward.

There are some extremely dodgy things going on in Teeside and this is just one of them.

What other councils still have to declare?

P.S if you want to know how many seats the tory party had why not add the seats they've lost to the ones the've hung on to?
Or is there a flaw in my maths that I haven't spotted?

I think the 2019 GE result was so bizarre that it's pointless to try to use it to comfort the tories.

It's pointless making projections from local election results in order to try to forecast the outcome of the next General Election. We saw this in 2019, when the Conservatives lost 1,333 seats, yet in the G.E. in the same year they gained 48 seats and Labour lost 60. Pundits refer to the Corbyn effect, but that can't be the whole story. So despite being hammered in the local elections, the Conservatives ended up with a comfortable parliamentary majority of around 80. Those trying to make projections today appear to favour something between a Labour majority of around 20 seats and a hung parliament. Only time will tell, but yes, it's certainly too early for counting our chickens..

The Tories lost a third of their seats in last week’s election compared with the seats they held in 2019 for the same councils, so it was pretty calamitous for them.

It was the best result for Labour in local authority elections since 2002.

I can’t find anything about the actual figures for the Lib Dem’s, but it was excellent results for them too.

Lovetopaint037

I have read in odd news reports that Boris Johnson is urging his merry band to set him up to “save” the Tory Party. That should knock them well out of the ball park. Hopefully never to be seen again.

😄😄

We have to look at Libs and greens.

Oh and it is over 1060 seats lost before Tuesdays results.

I can’t find the answer to how many seats the Tories held before the election yet though.