Gransnet forums

News & politics

I’m not counting my chickens

(135 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Fri 05-May-23 08:09:10

But after all the years of watching the destruction of everything I and the majority it seems hold dear, at last there might be light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

The Tories are on course to lose over 1000 seats.

The madness of the past decade might be coming to an end.

BlueBelle Fri 05-May-23 08:11:22

Oh I am so scared hiding behind the sofa but I hope hope hope there is some light and the Tories can be gone for the rest of my life

Iam64 Fri 05-May-23 08:18:09

I do hope the signs that people no longer trust the tories continue to grow

silverlining48 Fri 05-May-23 08:20:50

Sadly no chance bluebelle. I don’t vote Tory because I prefer to support the many not the few, but too many of the many vote for the few which has been subject of sociological debate for decades.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 05-May-23 08:29:53

Beth Rigby

Some added context here. Was told by someone familiar with CCHQ inside view that anything over 700+ losses would be "absolute disaster" which makes 1000+ off the scale

Charleygirl5 Fri 05-May-23 08:42:38

May I ask but what else did the Tories expect?

Louella12 Fri 05-May-23 08:56:19

Of course the Tories knew that last night would be somewhat of a disaster.

But local elections never really tell us the truth.

Does anyone know what the turnout was?

In 2019 'the Tories lost 1,330 seats and control of 44 councils as their overall vote share dipped by 7%.'

Lib Dems so often do well only to get ignored in a GE

To be honest I'm amazed that anyone voted Conservative yesterday but it appears they did.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 05-May-23 08:58:28

People are definitely voting tactically - apparently this affects GE more than LE so if this plays out in the GE it will make for interesting results I think.

Maggiemaybe Fri 05-May-23 08:59:41

Well this seat has been blue since Adam was a lad, so I’d be absolutely stunned, as well as delighted, if anything changed.

However, I can’t imagine it will. For the second election running we’ve been offered a new Labour candidate, and I haven’t been able to find out a single thing about them beyond their name. Not that it matters, apart from indicating how uncommunicative they’ve been, but this time I don’t even know what gender they are. No leaflets or information in the local press, on the Council or party website, or on any of the social media platforms. Not even an address on the ballot paper itself. I messaged the local party last time without a reply.

Even for a school governor election we’d get a personal statement from each candidate, a bit of info about who they are and what they’ll do if elected. Surely would-be politicians should make a bit of an effort if they want our votes? Yes, many of us vote for the party not the candidate, but I feel as if I’ve been pushed into being one of those who’d vote for a donkey if it had a red rosette on!

Rant over! smile

fancythat Fri 05-May-23 09:05:12

I did wonder whether Rishi might stop some of the flow, but may appear not.

Witzend Fri 05-May-23 09:09:58

I’ve been wondering about the turnout, too. Typically very low for local elections - anything rather higher than usual would indicate a shift - or at least less apathy.

silverlining48 Fri 05-May-23 09:12:25

Entirely agree Maggie. Exactly the Same thing here. Just a name with no other information. I emailed Labour HQ for more information but no response.
They didn’t really deserve my vote but there was no other choice. 2 Tory 1 right wing farage follower and two unknown Labour candidates. Very disappointing.

luluaugust Fri 05-May-23 09:19:42

Yes silverlining same here straight Tory/Labour contest, both parties did put out a leaflet but otherwise nothing. DIL was Poll Clerking and after five hours fifty people had been to vote not exactly overwhelming.

Casdon Fri 05-May-23 09:25:27

There’s a good summary on Sky News, which I’ve copied so we can keep a close eye on what’s happening. The Lib Dems are doing very well, but unfortunately this particular analysis is only for Tory and Labour parties.

Fewer than 300 losses: This would see the party winning council seats back from Independents, with Labour and the Lib Dems not prospering.
500 losses: The party could argue "mid-term blues" and will assume Labour could be caught before the general election.
750 losses: This would indicate a clear swing to Labour, but still less than opinion polls imply.
1,000 losses: A very bad night, with a third of all seats defended by the Conservatives lost.

700 gains: The best local elections for at least a decade. Labour would look on its way to becoming the largest party in Westminster, even if short of a majority.
450 gains: These results would be better than in 2022, when local elections took place in Greater London.
250 gains: A disappointing result for Labour in the context of recent opinion polls.
Under 150 gains: A step backwards for Labour.

I don’t actually care today if the majority of seats are won by independents with three legged donkeys, as long as the message to the government is loud and clear.

Siope Fri 05-May-23 09:30:20

Amused to see Sunak banging on about how well the Tories were doing in Bassetlaw, almost at the exact time it was announced Labour had won there with its best ever result.

Can’t help but wonder if the Tories will have the cheek to have yet another leadership change without a general election.

Dickens Fri 05-May-23 09:54:18

I think the blue-wall in the South is beginning to crumble somewhat... The Royal Borough of Windsor (and Maidenhead) has gone to the LDs.

I shall listen with interest while the losses are 'explained' by the Tory party who (like all parties) will have to find a way to put a bit of gloss on the results.

I think the more well-heeled traditional Tory voters are fed up with the sleaze - it does appear never ending, and constant changes of Premiership. The less well off, and the completely impoverished are just sick to the back teeth of the ever-rising cost of living and the decimation of the health and other services they rely on, to which there appears to be no end in sight.

I'm sure the Tories will at some point indicate - if they get the bloody-nose they're expecting - that they are "listening" to the voters. But they're on a make-Brexit-work, libertarian free-market economy, small-State, ticket, so how they will reconcile that with actually doing something tangible to ease the economic burden on the ordinary man-in-the-street, I've no idea.

LizzieDrip Fri 05-May-23 09:55:32

Can’t help but wonder if the Tories will have the cheek to have yet another leadership change without a general election.

Oh I hope they do! That would surely be the final nail in the Tory party coffin. Hopefully they will be that stupid (though I doubt it). I just hope the results coming in today will send out a message, loud and clear, to the Tories that they are finished! A light at the end of a very long, dark tunnel indeed🤞🤞🤞

NanaDana Fri 05-May-23 10:37:21

As regards the Conservative party, I think that they've been writing their own obituary for some time now, and all we've been waiting for is the invitation to the funeral. They're going to find it hard to put even a tiny speck of gloss on this, but that won't stop them from trying. Perhaps too early as yet to make any accurate assessment of what all this might mean in terms of a General Election, but Sunak's description this morning of it being "disappointing" may prove to be a massive understatement. The next few hours will tell.

ronib Fri 05-May-23 10:52:52

I hope for a hung Parliament… never again an 80 seat majority. Absolute power gone forever and that applies cross party.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 05-May-23 10:58:18


I hope for a hung Parliament… never again an 80 seat majority. Absolute power gone forever and that applies cross party.

If it’s a hung Parliament do you think anything would ever be passed through the HoC?

My guess is that there will have to be a coalition.

ronib Fri 05-May-23 11:06:42

I have a fantasy of a Parliament run for the benefit of the people. Does a coalition have better outcomes? I don’t favour one party rule however.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 05-May-23 11:11:49


I have a fantasy of a Parliament run for the benefit of the people. Does a coalition have better outcomes? I don’t favour one party rule however.

Definitely a fantasy ronib unfortunately I do not have faith in any of the three main parties.

ronib Fri 05-May-23 12:09:50

GG13 we haven’t tried Labour/Liberal Democrats yet. Maybe interesting coalition?

M0nica Fri 05-May-23 12:17:33

The Conservatives, or any other party have the right to change leaders as often as they like when in power - and one might say, Thank goodness, supposing we had been stuckwith Johnson or Truss, for 5 years each.

We are not a presidential country, like the US. We vote parties into power, not individuals - and long may it be so. The cult of the individual has gone too far in this country, especially in politics.

Dickens Fri 05-May-23 12:23:05


I have a fantasy of a Parliament run for the benefit of the people. Does a coalition have better outcomes? I don’t favour one party rule however.

I'm with you ronib.

People lament that with a coalition, it slows down the parliamentary process. Maybe to some extent it would / does, but I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. Certainly if you look at some of the the u-turns this current government has had to make during its tenure because of ill-thought-through enactments / plans, hastily put together and rejected by the electorate, it does beg the question of whether a slower process might not be a bad thing.

Norway has such a coalition. When I lived and worked there I wasn't aware of any chaos caused by the parties having to confer and agree. All parties appear to be invested in the welfare and prosperity of the nation as a whole, as opposed to their own aggrandisement and personal ambition(s).

One party rule - be it right or left - doesn't strike me either as being the best for our country... look at the flippin' mess we're in at the moment. A coalition puts a brake on individuals like Boris Johnson and, had he been in power, Jeremy Corbyn... they can't just march ahead and ride rough-shod over the electorate.

The nation appears to want either / or but it's quite clear that both the Tories and Labour recognise we're still more middle-of-the-road and extremes of either left or right don't go down well. Which is why, I suppose, some people are convinced that the Tories are now 'left-wing' and that Starmer is just a red-rosette with a Tory agenda, both parties are having to compromise. We want a one-party government, but then oppose its ideologies and policies when we get it.