Military coup in Russia

Unless Belarus is planning some sort of coup and now have Prigozhin on their side.......

Any army is only as good as its leaders. Russian military leaders have shown their incompetence over the past year or so. They will not be able to manage the Wagner arm - they are not up to managing the Russian military.

Wagner will soon get totally out of control. Their loyalty was to Prighozin.

What I thought initially would be good news seems now to be terrible news. The poor Ukrainians. The Wagner soldiers are beasts.

But don’t you think that Putin will restructure his military command? He needs to start winning- whatever it takes - just to save his position as leader? Although a proper leader would be seeking some kind of peace by now imo.

You can’t makes a silk purse etc.

Russia doesn’t usually have leaders, they have despots

We have neither leaders nor despots I guess?

I suspect everyone except maybe Zelenski is breathing a sigh of relief that Prigozhin is not going to overthrow Putin and become the man with 4000 nuclear warheads.

Ukraine is only one theatre of war where Progozhin is active. He started in Chechnya, had battalions in Syria and is currently doing very good business helping the governments in Chad and Mali deal with insurgents, they have replaced the French as key supporters. while taking over mineral interssts to exploit and finance his actions.

Behind all this is the advantages to Russia in having Russian authority assisting the government in these countries. It is a win win situation for both Putin and Prigozhin, and despite this little spat, both need each other.

This is why Prigozhin stopped where he did and why Putin has suggested he move Belorus, where the President is Putins most devoted sycophant, albeit, having to use the military and police to hold his own position.

With the president of Belorus now with Prigozhin and his heavies in his country, his position on stifling a strong opposition is much better and Putin knows that a revolution in Belorus is someting he can forget about.

However, the fact still remains that Putin's power has been threatenedd and this will encourage opposition supporters in Russia and may well make some of those around Putin wonder, whether they could not do better and nothing is more destructive for a leader like Putin than those around him seeing he is weak and compromised and be beginning to look around for the next leader, and how to get him onto power.

Remember in Soviet days the putsch (which has a very specific meaning of a secretly plotted and suddenly executed attempt to overthrow a government.) was the usual way to change leaders.

@Monica
Thank you. You have explained the circumstances very clearly.

Yes thanks M0nica. What next?!

So the coup that wasn't actually supposed to be a coup has be halted by Wagner's leader Prigozhin who has retreated and apparently will be pardoned for all 'crimes' provided he leaves Russia. Apparently he withdrew after negotiating with the president of Belarus and has now gone to live there.
Well the march on Moscow by Wagner was stopped and Prigozhin has gone somewhere but who knows the exact truth of it all!

Read Orlando Figes, Story of Russia. What's going on now has been going on for centuries. In a nutshell, it's a myth that Russia is one big united country, it never has been. You get various tribes and alliances, constantly shifting, and now various private military organisations in the mix as well.

Right now we are all guessing, aren't we?

I doubt the Wagner group members that are now back at the front against Ukraine will stay there very long.

They are mercenaries and loyal to whoever pays them. Those of them who are Russian citizens presumably know precisely what Putin's statement that they will not be punished is worth and will leave as soon as they can via Belarus.

And no-one on either France 24 or Deutsche Welle has suggested that Progozhin is out of the game. Presumably, he has lived to make all the criticisms of Putin, Sjoigu and Garasimov that he has made, plus got Putin to rescind the statement that everyone who had taken part in the revolt would be punished to the extreme of the law (and we Russia-watchers know what that means) because he is holding a very powerful threat over Putin. Otherwise someone would have shot him in Rostov on the Don the other day. If not long before!

Whether Progozhin will withdraw the entire Wagner group from Ukraine and hot-foot it to the Sudan or Syria, or anywhere else where he can earn money fighting, or not, I certainly cannot say, but I doubt he will suddenly leave his men to fend for themselves.

I hold no brief for Progozhin, but give the Devil his due! like any good captain of mercenaries from the middle ages to today, he has never before left his men to fend for themselves, so I doubt they have been so left now. Nor do I believe for a second that they will sign contracts with the Russian defence ministry.

It would not surpise me if it turns out that Progozhin has done exactly what he had planned to - he has exposed the fact that either Russia has no troops at home to defend Moscow, or that the army, military intelligence, the FSB and anyone else you can think of are all so divided in those who still support Putin and those who want rid of him that it actually was possible to get as far as he did with no attempts made to stop him, or none made by people who actually knew what they were doing.

Putin now has to spend time assessing whom he can trust and whom he most assuredly cannot trust, get rid of those he deems unreliable, find a scapegoat or two etc. etc. Expect Stalinist purges and a series of tranparent lies.

I have been waiting for a revolt ever since Speznav and the 94th Artillery refused to fight in March of 2022.

Progohzin has clearly told any former members of the USSR who are unhappy with the way Russia is treating them, "Come along, chaps, march into Russia no-one will or can stop you! "

You know someone might just do precisely that.

By the time of this post - so many confusing and volatile unknowns.

First of all both men have not been seen or heard from. Just remember these two men are killers and want control. They are also both cowards - the worst to fear in times like this - with tactical nuclear arms at their fingertips.

No one knows who’s in charge in the Russian army in Ukraine and some are defecting.

This is a stunning event and will continue to play out over the next few days, weeks and months. There will be a hard clap down for the people in Russia.
Nothing to cheer about.
USA Gundy

Nobody's cheering here.

Need to vent my fury. Has anyone tried renewing their EHIC, (now GHIC) . What an absolute palaver. I was renewing mine and my husbands, we are 76 and 77 years of age and were born here. The system didnot recognise us and over 3 emails over 5 days I was asked for more and more proof of our right to be in this country, from passports, bank statements over 3 months, utility bills etc, etc. All had to be scanned and emailed back. There was no number to ring to discuss it, and I was told both applications would be cancelled if even only one could not be confirmed. They finally agreed to renew them. I realise there has to be checks, but this was completely over the top.

I renewed mine on Friday and had no problems

Are you Russian?

RIJ146 you might want to start another thread, your post could get lost on here.

Aveline If you are asking me if I’m Russian - no I am not.

@ Gundy As I read it Aveline was asking RIJI46

Perhaps ordinary Russians, given all the lies Putin tells, will see the truth now. What a waste of so many lives for both countries. Prigozhin a brute and hardly someone to trust. Russians deserve a leader that genuinely cares about Russia, it’s going to be a long journey.

If this continues to play out as per the usual Soviet model, Putin will carry out a Stalinist-style purge of anyone he deems is in any way disloyal to him, or even might become so. I don't think we've reached a tipping point yet, but Putin's equilibrium has most definitely been disturbed, and at least some of the Russian population may be starting to ask questions about him. Also, I don't think for a moment that Prigozhin and Wagner are out of the picture yet, as their continued survival continues to depend on them presenting a viable threat. If Prigozhin goes into exile unsupported by his thugs, and Wagner allows itself to be disbanded, they will all be dead men walking, as I'm sure that Putin's FSB have already drawn up plans to terminate them. Whatever transpires, these are dangerous days for many reasons, as cornered rat scenarios always are.

Has anyone read the book Overreach by Owen Matthews detailing the first six months of this war? If so, would you recommend reading it?