By Elections on 20th July..

Wyllow3

ULEZ is an issue here in my city but the only two parties that count here are Lib Dems and Labour, both pro ULEZ.

It seems to me that ULEZ needs much more fine tuning -but it's a measure designed to give people clean enough air to safely live with respiratory conditions, and to try and increase in cities use of public transport - so - one of those really difficult ones.

The policy on the environment is a major dilemma for all parties I think. I suspect that if this election had been somewhere in Southern Europe the result may have been different given the heatwave they and a lot of the world are experiencing at the moment. Self interest in a very difficult economic environment is understandable, and this was a chance for people to vote anti ULEZ.

Wyllow3

ULEZ is an issue here in my city but the only two parties that count here are Lib Dems and Labour, both pro ULEZ.

It seems to me that ULEZ needs much more fine tuning -but it's a measure designed to give people clean enough air to safely live with respiratory conditions, and to try and increase in cities use of public transport - so - one of those really difficult ones.

I think your last paragraph is true Wyllow. Parties must "show their workings" and that they are using joined up thinking.

Transport systems are just as important as scrappage and are actually not mentioned by those backing the extremist Tories on here.

I've read at least three "expert interpretations" in the media about what these by-election results actually mean, and the only point on which they appear to agree is that the Conservatives are most certainly in the doo-doo. As to just how deep, and whether or not they can ever extricate themselves is open to debate.

My own opinion is that the Conservatives will most definitely be ousted at the next G.E., but I'm not sure about either the shape or the capability of the Government which will replace them. Depressingly poor choices out there just now, politically. Most unimpressive all round.

Totally agree with your last sentence Whitewave. However, when KS took over after the defeat in 2019, I doubt anyone would have suggested they could be where they are today. And just think this is one person who has remained leader of their party for the whole of that time.

At the next election I will judge them on their manifesto. However I'm happy to say "well done" today.

It was depressing to see that in Uxbridge and South Ruislip 714 people chose to vote for Laurence Fox, over 2% of the votes cast. That proves that there are some very, very right wing people out there, which is scary in my opinion.

Turnout is what you’d expect for a by-elections, so a somewhat useful inidcator; the really interesting data on turnout will be how many Tories stayed home compared to how many switched allegiance. I haven’t seen that yet - if anyone has, please point me in the right direction.

What’s more interesting is swing; obviously massive in two, but less than 7% in Uxbridge. All three are high enough to cause concern (understatement in two cases obviously) for the Tories, but the 7% is likely to be something of a concern to Labour. It’s obviously lower than they were expecting, in a constituency which has seen quite a bit of demographic change in the past three years that should have favoured them, and repeated nationally it would not give them a sizeable majority.

ULEZ is an issue here in my city but the only two parties that count here are Lib Dems and Labour, both pro ULEZ.

It seems to me that ULEZ needs much more fine tuning -but it's a measure designed to give people clean enough air to safely live with respiratory conditions, and to try and increase in cities use of public transport - so - one of those really difficult ones.

It has nothing to do with the level of turnout but in the direction of travel.

At 23% swing is an unprecedented.

However, a by election is only a snapshot of a point in time.

The GE is by no means certain for any party.

GrannyGravy13

For those of us who have to drive through parts of the new expansion of ULEZ (next month) it’s a very big deal.

Poor turnout apparently

Doesn't a poor turn out mean people are not prepared to vote for the incumbent party, but have not yet got to a point where they can vote for the opposition. I think Labour may well be quite happy with that.

Turnouts have been steadily dropping in every election - and not to forget, this one was the first under the new voter ID rule.

I cannot see this is the reason for last nights results in any way. If a further 5% had come out, why should they be conservative?

To my mind low voting is one of the. biggest dangers to democracy and not specific to this election. The swing to Labour in Selby was so stunning, its consequences clearly threaten all conservative seats in "Red Wall" areas. I wasn't surprised at the swing in Somerset, it matches the pattern of Lib Dems being the clear and obvious alternative in a number of seats in the south particularly. Clear tactical voting in both?

I looked up the Uxbridge situation. Win was by something slightly over 400, and there were an astonishing number of 17 candidates, including "duplicate"pro climate action candidates, 2x further right candidates, one specifically on Brexit, and one standing specifically one the ULEZ issue.
Very split opposition indeed.

Witzend

Unable to sleep just for a change, I was up in the night watching.

IMO it’s probably right that ULEZ was a factor in Uxbridge, though I’ve seen a TV journalist trying to dismiss it a little while ago.

It’s going to mean £12 every time you take a non compliant vehicle, out, which is going to disproportionately affect the less well off. The young gardener, a very hardworking chap with his own business, who looks after our communal areas, was complaining bitterly about it not long ago. Because of all the essential kit, he has to take his vehicle out every day for work, and will have to spend a considerable amount on a newer one, or cough up the cash every single day he works.

And it’s going to be the same for many small businesses/tradesmen, or anyone else who does really need their vehicle for work.

Of course it’s a good idea in theory, but….

If the LDs see the Somerset result as a renaissance, IMO they’re deluding themselves. In the Selby constituency the LDs won only about 1000 votes, ditto the Greens.

Let's look some facts.

The swing required by Labour in Selby and Ainsty was 17.9%. What they got was 23.7%. This is a traditional 'conservative' area. Conservative with a small 'c' which has made them vote Conservative in many cases, all their lives. These are farmers, these are people who made their money when industrialisation carried the area in the 1970s. These are people who wake up in the morning and defer buying something until they can afford it. They are people who don't feel that Essex is the only way. They are people who plan for the future and enjoy the present at the level they can afford. They don't live on huge mortgages, they don't live on gambling with other people's money. They true Conservatives. Building lives and business by sweating and worrying alongside those who help them and often going without in order to look after their workers. One of my friends, in despair, said they were going to vote for the Monster Raving Looney Party. I doubt that they did, but they will certainly have sent a message to the extremists who have taken over their party.

ULEZ was certainly the main factor in Uxbridge. The issue cannot be resolved under a Conservative government, as they refuse a proper scrapage scheme. So why would people vote for them in a General Election? A potential Labour government can have a proper plan to help people in the transition, which they could not do in a by-election.

All you can come up with against the Liberals is that it's not a "Renaissance". Take the extremist blinkers off, as many have in the North. They won it. It will be the first of many where there are disaffected Tories. Take them for granted at your peril.

You have just reminded me how little the supporters of this extremist government do facts.

I didn’t expect turnout be high, I think the public are completely fed up of politics at the moment. Scandal after scandal, misleading about the impact of Brexit and a poor economy has eroded trust to a great extent. I think the turnout at the next election will be relatively low too compared with previous GEs.

Excellent coverage overnight on LBC from Iain Dale and Jacqui Smith

Must say that considering the political mess and chaos lately, I had expected the turnout to be a bit higher. If Labour had a more inspiring leader I dare say that would have made a difference, too.

As for the LDs, the West Country was traditionally a successful area for them, so I see the result largely as reverting to the norm.

Low turn used to be thought to be detrimental to the Labour Party. It was always thought that rain kept them in as they couldn’t be bothered to go out like the die hard Tory voters. I am hoping that there will be a really high turn out in the general election and that overconfidence that the
Tories will lose will still get voters adamant to make a change in government. There have been elections in the past that were thought to be a sure thing only to result in the opposite.

ronib

The turnout was very poor. Difficult to predict the general election therefore.

The turnout was close on average for by-elections, there is always a much poorer turnout than for general elections. Here are the figures.
www.politico.eu/article/scandals-affect-by-election-england-polls-rishi-sunak-uxbridge-ruislip-elby-ainsty-somerton-frome/

DAR not a poor loser- doesn’t matter either way. Pointing out that most voters stayed away is relevant. If the Conservatives are as you described then why was there such a poor response? Face it - Labour and Lib Dems don’t have the votes either.

That cuts both ways Witzend. Correspondingly, the Labour vote went down in Somerton & Frome….

I don’t read a lot in these tea leaves. People now realise that in order to get a change of govt they need to vote for whoever is most likely to defeat a sitting Tory.

ronib

The turnout was very poor. Difficult to predict the general election therefore.

That sounds like a poor loser ronib. This, is a very significant moment in the journey of the self implosion of the Conservstive party, which once had a majority of 80, but will lose it because of their self obsession.

Just think what a true Conservative government might have done for all the people of this county. Instead their extremism brought both division of the country and their party, chaos in their determination to take the country in ways that no real majority ever wanted and failure in their ability to govern and to grow the economy, to bring the people together and to see a future for all.

So that's their legacy: Division, Chaos and Failure.

What stands out for me is that so many voters didn’t vote.

It is time for Starmer to get himself into gear and to come up with something that is not just watered-down libdem/conservative stuff.

The Labour candidate in Somerton and Frome actually got even fewer votes than the LibDem candidate in Selby. That does not mean that supporters of either party are "delding themselves" if they think their party is gaining support, merely that it is necessary to vote tactically to defeat the Tories. because of our absurd FPTP voting system.

Yes, turnout in all 3 only about 44-46% IIRC.

For those of us who have to drive through parts of the new expansion of ULEZ (next month) it’s a very big deal.

Poor turnout apparently

Unable to sleep just for a change, I was up in the night watching.

IMO it’s probably right that ULEZ was a factor in Uxbridge, though I’ve seen a TV journalist trying to dismiss it a little while ago.

It’s going to mean £12 every time you take a non compliant vehicle, out, which is going to disproportionately affect the less well off. The young gardener, a very hardworking chap with his own business, who looks after our communal areas, was complaining bitterly about it not long ago. Because of all the essential kit, he has to take his vehicle out every day for work, and will have to spend a considerable amount on a newer one, or cough up the cash every single day he works.

And it’s going to be the same for many small businesses/tradesmen, or anyone else who does really need their vehicle for work.

Of course it’s a good idea in theory, but….

If the LDs see the Somerset result as a renaissance, IMO they’re deluding themselves. In the Selby constituency the LDs won only about 1000 votes, ditto the Greens.