Tories tearing themselves apart - how long to a GE!

I thought this analysis of Sunak was interesting. He does do contradictory things that make him difficult to 'ready.

I don’t think that it is possible any more, if it ever was, to regard Sunak as an enigma, or even as a very inexperienced politician still feeling his way. Instead, I think it is now beyond reasonable doubt that his plasticity is not the shiny cover for some deeper core of belief or purpose, it is just all there is to him. It’s not even a matter of the familiar attempt of many politicians to be all things to all people and who end up pleasing no one. It’s just that there is less to him than meets the eye. There are no hidden depths, just a well-concealed depthlessness. He is impossible to read not because of any inscrutability of purpose but because, quite simply, there is nothing to read

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2023/11/?m=0

Well I am all for restoring the overseas aid budget and using it properly. I've got a couple of relatives that work for international charities and they have seen big cuts in their budgets. I'm also strongly for anything that brings the conservatives back from the far right but it's alarming that whilst they are talking about cutting benefits costs they are also talking about reducing inheritance tax. Take from the disadvantaged to give to the already wealthy, should be the other way round.

I see Cameron is talking about reinstating the aid budget that has been trashed recently. That will definitely not go down well with the right. “See to our own first” except that they don’t of course.

No amount of legislation that says Rwanda is a free and fair country will make it so. The world knows it and most of the voting public know it. And of course Sunak knows it, but after the Braverman debacle he is trying to sound tough. He knows that it will never work.

I am inclined to think that it is more useful to look at what Sunak has done rather than what he says. Bringing in Cameron and other (relatively) moderate members to Cabinet is interesting. In the meantime, I suspect he is trying to keep the right happy, by grabbing headlines with suggested legislation that he has little chance of getting through, given opposition in the Lords and the time he has left.
We are told that there is a "silent majority" who are desperate to stop the boats, but polling does not really seem to reflect that across a wider demographic.
Perhaps a bit of realism is creeping in?

There is a lot to unravel here.

My first thought would be that Cameron must have been promised a reasonable time to rehabilitate himself before giving up any if the income streams he has set up for himself.* This would suggest Sunak is looking at next autumn.

However, picking a fight with Starmer and the HoL over Human Rights legislation might push him into a May election. I can only think his reasoning is something like "Johnson won a landside victory in the last election on a "get Brexit done" ticket, having decided on a snap election when he could not persuade Parliament to approve a revised Brexit withdrawal. If Sunak is following this path, picking a fight with Starmer and the HoL over Human Rights legislation might mean he is setting things up to say he has been pushed into a snap election in May on a "get Rwanda done" ticket.

A third thread that seems to weave through this is that he seems to have abandoned seats in the North, taking investment from them, in favour of his base in the south. He might be pursueded that those who were hoodwinked by what "Get Brexit done" would mean, could also be hoodwinked by "Get Rwanda done" being a solution to the growing international issue of those seeking asylum. This might be thought to be a way of stopping a complete wipeout.

*https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-foreign-secretary-lobbying-memoirs-b2446379.html There is a click through from this article to the appointments listed with the HoC).

DaisyAnneReturns

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

That is a very good question!

Do you think - knowing, as he obviously must - that he's losing credibility within his own party, and a percentage of the voters, that it's his last-ditch attempt at proving his 'credentials' with them... look-see-how-tough-I-can-be-on-delivering-my-promise?

And of course, waiting in the wings (so to speak) there's Farage - always ready to throw some brick-bats, and Tice's Reform Party who are going to field candidates against the Tories (I think?).

So, in that respect - he's going in the opposite direction to a return to more moderate Conservatism.

I don't think it will end well. I know there's a section of the public who think of themselves as the 'silent' majority - too afraid to 'speak out' (so they say) who will welcome his stance, but it's going to plunge the party into further chaos.

Also, do people know that as part of the agreement, we will be taking back from Rwanda a small number of vulnerable refugees? If they are to be removed from this Central African state - what does that say about its record on human rights, or the guarantees of safety?

And, is it a good idea to abolish all human rights for everyone just so this man can, basically, save his skin?

As you say, it's madness.

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights"

He sounds as if he is almost threatening Starmer, Dickens, and the of HoL. I'm not sure the threat if a snap election if he stands in the way of his law changes is going to have much effect on Labour. I don't think Starmer has the power to stop him.

Why is Sunak spending so much money (£140M so far) and government time and suggesting we abolish all Human Rights Laws for all our citizens, to send 200 refugees to Rhowanda?

It's madness.

DAR
A " centre democrat pivot" - yes, probably a more moderate governance would perhaps stand a better chance of uniting the nation, and might even improve our image on the world stage, too. We are watched in that respect and although some think "it doesn't matter what other countries think" because sovereignty is all, I believe our standing is important for all sorts of reasons - 'trade' among them.

Casdon
You might be right there. 'Re-positioning' the party surely will encourage those disaffected voters to return to the fold? If, indeed, this is Sunak's plan.

However, he has vowed to bring in emergency legislation, "I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights". The ECHR is considered to be the most effective human rights court in the world. The court is distinct from he EU - though it's sometimes confused with it, and Sunak's rhetoric is going to play very well with the Eurosceptics - hard-line Brexiters are already complaining about Cameron's appointment on that basis... they believe appointing a Remainer as FS is treason! So, there is that.

As you say, it's an interesting time for the party.

Personally, I don't want to watch the party tear itself apart - for the reason that it is not good for the country. It doesn't help the average citizen if they are in complete disarray, doesn't make their life any easier or do anything to compensate for the cost of living crisis. If we are to attract investors we need stability not a government fighting like rats in a sack!

He certainly has more sense of who votes how than the right of his party Casdon. I imagine he intends to go for the election at a later date but I do wonder if it is actually in his gift.

It’s a very interesting time for the Tory Party for sure, and I can now see the rationale for Cameron’s appointment more clearly - I do think it was was of very few ways to reposition to make the party more electable. Despite what the right are saying, Sunak has more nous than they give him credit for.
think what Marr said about the election date is pretty accurate too, it’s going to be very interesting to watch it play out over the next year.

I watched this earlier Casdon and Dickens. Marr's move to the New Statesman has certainly unleashed some interesting pieces from them.

As another centrist, Dickens, I too would not want to see the complete end of the Tories. I would much rather see a centre democrat pivot with the best of governance coming from both the democratic right and the democratic left. Unfortunately, in both the Tory and Labour coalitions, neither right or left have shown that democracy is strong very far from the fulcrum that lies between them.

Well, the campaigning has already started, we've had a Labour Party activist round today and we had a good chat 🙂

Casdon

I’ve just watched this New Statesman piece by Andrew Marr. Whichever side of the political spectrum you sit on, it’s a very interesting perspective I think, and helps put the jigsaw together of what is happening within the party.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cShf_tAyO0A

Well worth listening to. Thanks for highlighting it.

I take Marr's point about the (possible) shift towards the 'blue-shires' traditional Conservative voter away from the so-called red-wall.

I personally don't like 'populist' government nor any tendencies towards extremism - in any party - and it has been said that the British people as a whole don't like immoderation or 'obsessiveness' in their government.

As a non-Tory voter, I would nevertheless welcome a return to the more moderate conservative Conservatism of the past. In spite of the woeful Austerity imposed, I still think Cameron has more gravitas than some of the current (and recently 'past') members of this current government. It might have been a shrewd move by Sunak. Who knows.

Jaye53

This country yearns for a strong leader it always has done.

No it doesn't.

I’ve just watched this New Statesman piece by Andrew Marr. Whichever side of the political spectrum you sit on, it’s a very interesting perspective I think, and helps put the jigsaw together of what is happening within the party.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cShf_tAyO0A

Well said LizzieDrip - good to have some facts!

The NHS in Wales is not faring well at all.

Callistemon21 this is because of the way in which funding is allocated from Westminster to the devolved nations. It is done by the Barnett Formula which is based simply on population numbers not needs. Wales suffers particularly because of this, as it has a significantly greater number of people aged over 65 than the other nations; this puts greater strain on the NHS in Wales. You can read the details on Chanel 4 Fact Check.

the first person they should send to ruanda is suella braverman. What an appalling person she is, and very typical of the selfseeking selfish tory party! On the other hand let her keep talking her vile attitudes as it should remind any of the electorate with short memories of just exactly what they are like and why they should be got rid of at the earliest opportunity. Mind you they are even scraping the bottom of the barrel when they have to get cameron to be in the fo. Well when there are so many liars, untrustworthy, deceitful people who have hoped to not be found out giving jobs to friends and shares in companies which have conveniently been given large amounts of our money to get a contract. I am ashamed to be british when I hear the Home Secretary coming out with such attitudes. Hurry up election and lets be rid of them all !

This country yearns for a strong leader it always has done.

Germanshepherdsmum

Labour haven’t done too well with the NHS in Wales. I admire your blind faith. Starmer has said he isn’t going to increase taxes hasn’t he?

The NHS in Wales is not faring well at all.

Tories tearing themselves apart - how long to a GE!

Substitute Tories for Labour and the whole political system is falling apart.

For CvD66 - and anyone else with partisan voting feelings. Many decades of evidence clearly show that incompetence and corruption (and occasionally a smattering of perverts) are easily found in all the major parties. To place undue faith in any of them is a classic example of hope over realism.

For Labour (I can pick holes in Tories too, Lord knows they supply plenty ammo!) the Momentum subset that gave us Comrade Corbyn and John ('MaoIsMe') McDonnell haven't gone away, they're just creeping out from the stones they slunk under after that last election massacre. Look up Jared O'Mara, jailed for FOUR years in Feb, not just suspended or forced to resign. Also Fiona Onasanya jailed for 3 months in 2019 (perverting the course of justice).

MOnica made a comment re "deckchairs" (elections) and the evidence clearly shows that's a realistic view.

Labour haven’t done too well with the NHS in Wales. I admire your blind faith. Starmer has said he isn’t going to increase taxes hasn’t he?

Labour get my vote for the NHS, they started it, they can fix it, I don't care who they put in charge Labour built the NHS & are working class for the working classes (on the whole, exceptions like Tony Benn etc) they built the welfare state and whether you like Starmer or not they will do the same again without going mad with the pennies but they will close tax loopholes and increase tax for the wealthiest so expect grim stories from the press that is owned by billionaires, like the Daily Mail for example

I think Cameron will get a much tougher scrutiny in the Lords. All those retired Ambassadors, Generals, Spooks etc.

Yesterday the Labour Party tore themselves apart too. Half are supporting Corbin and half Starmer. Neither party are very stable at the moment