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Is the Conservative party facing oblivion?

(82 Posts)
Dinahmo Mon 08-Jan-24 14:52:28

Danny Kruger, a bank bench MP and founder of the New Conservatives group believes that it is. Here's the article - from the Guardian. It is rather long but nevertheless you may find it interesting.

The Conservatives face “obliteration” at the next election after leaving the country in a worse state than they inherited it in 2010, a senior Tory MP has said, in a stark assessment of the party’s 13 years in government.

Danny Kruger, a leading backbencher and founder of the increasingly influential New Conservatives group, said the Conservatives risked being ejected from power this year having left the country “sadder, less united and less conservative” than they found it.

The comments, which were made both at an event last year and in response to a Guardian inquiry, come just as the prime minister seeks to rally his troops with a hint of tax cuts to come in the budget ahead of an election later this year.

Sunak will host an event in the north-west of England on Monday, where he will urge voters to stick with the Conservatives, saying: “The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party.”

But the prime minister faces a difficult start to election year, with the possibility of a significant rebellion on Monday over his plan to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea, and another within weeks over the Rwanda bill. Sunak is also likely to have to fight three difficult byelections in Kingswood, Blackpool South and Wellingborough – all of which Labour hope to win.

Speaking to a private event of Tory members organised by the thinktank ResPublica last October, Kruger said: “The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted – that over 13 years things have got worse – is one we just have to acknowledge and admit.”

He added: “Some things have been done right and well. The free school movement that Michael Gove oversaw, and universal credit – and Brexit, even though it was in the teeth of the Tory party hierarchy itself, and mismanaged – nevertheless Brexit will be the great standing achievement of our time in office.

“These things are significant, but, overall I’m afraid, if we leave office next year, we would have left the country sadder, less united and less conservative than when we found it.”

A source at the event passed the comments to the Guardian. When a reporter approached Kruger to ask about them, he said: “This was a conversation among party members in which I made the case for realism and for honesty with the public.”

He added that the rise of the far right in Europe should provide a warning for the Tory party.

“For decades, across the western world, centre-right parties have controlled the institutes of the state – yet nevertheless have presided over a drift away from their stated values and the interests of their voters,” he said.

“Conservatives worldwide have presided over models of mass migration, political correctness and economic short-termism. The British government is making some of the right moves to correct this. But the reaction under way in Europe at the moment is a warning to my party – either we remember the people we work for, or we face obliteration.”

Kruger’s comments reflect widespread pessimism on the Tory benches about the direction of the party and its chances of winning the next election.

As a founder of the New Conservatives, Kruger is a leading light of the socially conservative movement which is urging Sunak to shift further to the right on issues such as immigration. He is one of dozens of Tory MPs who rebelled last year on the Rwanda bill, arguing that it did not do enough to stop legal appeals against deporting asylum seekers to the African country.

His comments about the rise of the far right in Europe are an indication of growing concern on the Tory benches about the rise of Reform UK, the populist party originally established by Nigel Farage as a successor to Ukip.

Polls show Reform has risen from about 5% a year ago to about 9% today, mainly by attracting the kinds of Brexit-supporting former Labour voters whom Boris Johnson managed to win over in 2019.

Kruger’s comments also undermine the prime minister’s attempts to strike a more optimistic tone at the start of the election year. Sunak will say at the PM Connect event on Monday: “But this government has made progress. At the start of this year, we are pointing in the right direction.”

The prime minister is also under pressure from another group of more centrist backbenchers, many of whom share Kruger’s bleak assessment of the party’s electoral outlook but have a very different set of remedies.

The moderate One Nation group has become more vocal in recent months, warning in November that turning to the right risked “falling into an unrecoverable position with most of the voters”. Many of their members are urging the prime minister to keep his focus on the economy and aspiration, rather than moving to the right on issues such as immigration and identity politics.

Damian Green, the chair of the One Nation group, said that Kruger’s diagnosis of the problems facing the party was flawed. “The old saying that it’s the economy, stupid, still applies for general elections,” he said. “That’s where the Conservatives should fight. We need to convince would-be Conservative voters of all kinds if we want to win.”

cc Thu 11-Jan-24 11:55:20

Urmstongran

I think they’re toast. They’ve lost the plot.
They don’t seem to appeal to the conservative voters down south and I think they’ve lost the Red Wall now. (Me, for one).
I’m voting Reform. The Tories need to start again with a better leader.

I can’t get behind Sir Ed Davey - for many reasons - and Labour right now (with Blair hovering in the background) is a no-no. Ed Milliband’s green zeal is off putting too.

We (only) produce 1% of the world’s emissions. Why on earth do we have to ‘be a world beater’? Beggars belief. Let’s be more measured, row back a bit and look after our own economy at this perilous time.

I agree, the existing major parties hold no appeal for me.
I don't see why people imagine that Britain can be either a "world beater" or a world leader in any respect at the current time.
We're a small island with little manufacturing capability and at very real risk of losing our hold as a major world financial market. A minority of our population are not prepared to work for their living but expect to be able to call on the benefits system and the NHS constantly, and to live in social housing.
Major reform is called for but clearly the Labour party are unlikely to make adjustments to the benefits system and none of the parties knows how to grasp the nettle of the NHS.
Immigration is something that none of the parties seems willing to tackle for fear of being accused of racism. I'm not against immigration but we should not be taking in people who are neither valid asylum seekers nor have relevant skills to offer. Economic migration is nothing new has benefits for both sides, but something has to be offered in exchange for life in a new country.

Maremia Thu 11-Jan-24 11:50:26

Grantanow grin

Grantanow Thu 11-Jan-24 11:45:25

Oblivion? There's always hope...

hugshelp Thu 11-Jan-24 11:40:45

aonk

If the election is won by Labour I wonder how long it will be before there will be critical and sometimes abusive about them? Too many posters are so strongly biased politically that they don’t realise there’s good and bad in both parties. We must pick the one we feel is the better out of a bad lot.

I'll judge labour by what they do if they get in.
As I have the Tories - and I cannot justify voting for them on that basis, regardless of the opposition.
Voting them in again would be a vote in favour of dishonesty and corruption as demonstrated.
Why would I assume another party will be as bad as some weird way of justifying condoning another term of office for the tories?
Anyone who wants to vote Tory has that right, but I can't believe they do so without accepting they are voting specifically for a broken political system.
If you want to change our shoddy politics you have to start by sending the message that what is happening now is not acceptable.

Seagull72 Thu 11-Jan-24 11:39:52

Always annoys me when they say older voters voted Tory and for Brexit. Brexit has ruined the opportunities for this country and young people. Can’t wait for them to go. They treat the electorate like idiots. Thirteen years of decline and austerity and suffering for a lot of people.

thegeema Thu 11-Jan-24 11:38:35

I agree spabbygirsl how anyone can vote Tory if they care about children, disabled people or poorly paid people is beyond me. Or if they are Christian, how can you follow Christ and be a Tory! I'm not of the view that we should should hate all Tories, but on the other hand it is the Tory party members who have enabled this incompetent, selfish and narcisisstic government by voting for Johnson and not standig up to ERG. Even if you were a misguided Brexiter how on earth could vote for such an obviously dishonest person. I suppose its because they get all their 'news' from the Mail. Express, Telegraph etc which left truth behind some time ago.

Cagsy Thu 11-Jan-24 11:33:28

Of course there is good and bad in all parties, all professions, all walks of life and given the state of the economy I doubt anyone will be able to make any meaningful changes any time soon. I try to understand the direction they’d like to go in rather than what any party can do at any given point in time and I believe the Tories, and probably Reform want lower taxes and a smaller state than most of the other parties. That of course is a perfectly valid viewpoint but I personally feel that it’s wealthier people who benefit here as they are able to be more self reliant than the more vulnerable who do need the support of the state in one way or another. I looks for example at the many advertisements for private health insurance around now, there are a lot of people eager to start making money from our failing NHS. Often the poorest in our society suffer from the most health problems, for a variety of reasons, and it is them who will suffer most from an American style of health care that I fear we are heading for. Again the wealthy will feel confident this will not affect them, in fact will benefit many financially as shareholders etc. I believe I should look to improve life for those struggling the most in any way I can and therefore would always vote for a party that’s direction of travel is to work to that aim.

spabbygirl Thu 11-Jan-24 11:25:51

Blairs new Labour did a lot of good, I had a disability & before him there was no right to have suitable equipment at work, I work at social services & there were no disabled parking bays, I asked why not & a manager said 'disabled people don't come here'! But all that changed under Blair, also Sure Start centres which as a child protection social worker were fab, they helped many families get over a rough spot, also they had a more compassionate benefits system. Years back Labour started the NHS, the Tories have been trying to reduce it as we've seen. I don't care who is in charge of Labour, they get my vote

aonk Tue 09-Jan-24 13:33:41

If the election is won by Labour I wonder how long it will be before there will be critical and sometimes abusive about them? Too many posters are so strongly biased politically that they don’t realise there’s good and bad in both parties. We must pick the one we feel is the better out of a bad lot.

Grantanow Tue 09-Jan-24 10:23:56

The Tory Party will never die: it simply smells that way.

Whitewavemark2 Tue 09-Jan-24 08:14:43

Casdon

paddyann54

We can but hope they go missing for at least a decade.Sadly I think "sir" Starmer is cut from the same cloth...just a tory by a different name.Shame you dont have a party that works FOR the people instead of the two who work against you all .

It’s US all paddyann54. Living in Scotland doesn’t render you immune to the machinations of the UK government.

Nor from corruption and fraud by the previous leader and others connected to the SNP. Their record of working “for” the people has not been good either - reflected in the poor poll ratings.

Luckygirl3 Tue 09-Jan-24 08:09:41

Sadly oblivion is probably too much to hope for.

Casdon Tue 09-Jan-24 07:54:53

paddyann54

We can but hope they go missing for at least a decade.Sadly I think "sir" Starmer is cut from the same cloth...just a tory by a different name.Shame you dont have a party that works FOR the people instead of the two who work against you all .

It’s US all paddyann54. Living in Scotland doesn’t render you immune to the machinations of the UK government.

Whitewavemark2 Tue 09-Jan-24 07:51:26

Honesty would be a good start!

How low the bar has fallen.

Katie59 Tue 09-Jan-24 07:25:24

paddyann54

We can but hope they go missing for at least a decade.Sadly I think "sir" Starmer is cut from the same cloth...just a tory by a different name.Shame you dont have a party that works FOR the people instead of the two who work against you all .

Blair was a conservative (small c) PM there was nothing radical about his policies, there was a lot of Thatcherite policies that he did not change. For me the sale of council houses was a crime which we are still seeing the fallout from and deregulation was a disaster in 2008.
Is Starmer going to be much different?, we will see, maybe he will at least be honest.

paddyann54 Mon 08-Jan-24 23:40:15

We can but hope they go missing for at least a decade.Sadly I think "sir" Starmer is cut from the same cloth...just a tory by a different name.Shame you dont have a party that works FOR the people instead of the two who work against you all .

Casdon Mon 08-Jan-24 22:59:55

25Avalon

What if Corbin sets up his own Labour Party? I can see politics in even more disarray than it is now and all parties obsolete.

I just can’t see that taking off though, he’s sort of tested the water with the Peace and Justice project. I think the right want to hype this to put fear into voters, but it’s not actually going to happen.

25Avalon Mon 08-Jan-24 22:12:10

What if Corbin sets up his own Labour Party? I can see politics in even more disarray than it is now and all parties obsolete.

flappergirl Mon 08-Jan-24 21:10:17

Sorry, I put hope twice which is obviously how I feel!

spabbygirl Mon 08-Jan-24 21:08:57

I hope so too cangran!!! How can a bunch of billionaires understand what life is like for people on minimal incomes? Sunak said when people complained about benefit cuts 'get another job', many people have two jobs at the moment to make ends meet. I feel for them. I'm glad there was benefit support when my kids were little and I'm happy to pay more now I have more income, I just wish the Tories would spend more on frontline services and less using private companies who have shareholders that expect a cut.
They have treated the Treasury like their own personal cashpoint and totally ruined all the wonderful public services we had. The sooner we get rid of the Tories the better, I don't think a further lurch to the right will help, they started off losing votes so chased Farage's votes by holding a referendum and every time they suffer in the polls they lurch even further to the right and their poll ratings drop still further. They'll never learn and I'm delighted they'll be obsolete.

flappergirl Mon 08-Jan-24 21:08:15

I hope sincerely hope they will be obliterated and if Brexit is their greatest achievement, god help us all.

Katie59 Mon 08-Jan-24 20:53:31

After Thatcher and Major, Blair must have been an attractive alternative with New Labour ideas, and won a 179 seat majority and 2 more GEs
Starmer just does not yet have the support even from his own party.
Thatcher getting removed by her own party has a lot of parallels with Tories today.

cangran Mon 08-Jan-24 19:02:36

I hope so!

Whitewavemark2 Mon 08-Jan-24 17:22:26

Well, judging by the way allegations of corruption and fraud keeps dribbling out - the latest is Paul Maynard using public funds for Tory party use - then I would say “yes” although I’m definitely not counting my chickens.

Louella12 Mon 08-Jan-24 16:46:54

Lame ducks