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Is the Conservative party facing oblivion?

(82 Posts)
Dinahmo Mon 08-Jan-24 14:52:28

Danny Kruger, a bank bench MP and founder of the New Conservatives group believes that it is. Here's the article - from the Guardian. It is rather long but nevertheless you may find it interesting.

The Conservatives face “obliteration” at the next election after leaving the country in a worse state than they inherited it in 2010, a senior Tory MP has said, in a stark assessment of the party’s 13 years in government.

Danny Kruger, a leading backbencher and founder of the increasingly influential New Conservatives group, said the Conservatives risked being ejected from power this year having left the country “sadder, less united and less conservative” than they found it.

The comments, which were made both at an event last year and in response to a Guardian inquiry, come just as the prime minister seeks to rally his troops with a hint of tax cuts to come in the budget ahead of an election later this year.

Sunak will host an event in the north-west of England on Monday, where he will urge voters to stick with the Conservatives, saying: “The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party.”

But the prime minister faces a difficult start to election year, with the possibility of a significant rebellion on Monday over his plan to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea, and another within weeks over the Rwanda bill. Sunak is also likely to have to fight three difficult byelections in Kingswood, Blackpool South and Wellingborough – all of which Labour hope to win.

Speaking to a private event of Tory members organised by the thinktank ResPublica last October, Kruger said: “The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted – that over 13 years things have got worse – is one we just have to acknowledge and admit.”

He added: “Some things have been done right and well. The free school movement that Michael Gove oversaw, and universal credit – and Brexit, even though it was in the teeth of the Tory party hierarchy itself, and mismanaged – nevertheless Brexit will be the great standing achievement of our time in office.

“These things are significant, but, overall I’m afraid, if we leave office next year, we would have left the country sadder, less united and less conservative than when we found it.”

A source at the event passed the comments to the Guardian. When a reporter approached Kruger to ask about them, he said: “This was a conversation among party members in which I made the case for realism and for honesty with the public.”

He added that the rise of the far right in Europe should provide a warning for the Tory party.

“For decades, across the western world, centre-right parties have controlled the institutes of the state – yet nevertheless have presided over a drift away from their stated values and the interests of their voters,” he said.

“Conservatives worldwide have presided over models of mass migration, political correctness and economic short-termism. The British government is making some of the right moves to correct this. But the reaction under way in Europe at the moment is a warning to my party – either we remember the people we work for, or we face obliteration.”

Kruger’s comments reflect widespread pessimism on the Tory benches about the direction of the party and its chances of winning the next election.

As a founder of the New Conservatives, Kruger is a leading light of the socially conservative movement which is urging Sunak to shift further to the right on issues such as immigration. He is one of dozens of Tory MPs who rebelled last year on the Rwanda bill, arguing that it did not do enough to stop legal appeals against deporting asylum seekers to the African country.

His comments about the rise of the far right in Europe are an indication of growing concern on the Tory benches about the rise of Reform UK, the populist party originally established by Nigel Farage as a successor to Ukip.

Polls show Reform has risen from about 5% a year ago to about 9% today, mainly by attracting the kinds of Brexit-supporting former Labour voters whom Boris Johnson managed to win over in 2019.

Kruger’s comments also undermine the prime minister’s attempts to strike a more optimistic tone at the start of the election year. Sunak will say at the PM Connect event on Monday: “But this government has made progress. At the start of this year, we are pointing in the right direction.”

The prime minister is also under pressure from another group of more centrist backbenchers, many of whom share Kruger’s bleak assessment of the party’s electoral outlook but have a very different set of remedies.

The moderate One Nation group has become more vocal in recent months, warning in November that turning to the right risked “falling into an unrecoverable position with most of the voters”. Many of their members are urging the prime minister to keep his focus on the economy and aspiration, rather than moving to the right on issues such as immigration and identity politics.

Damian Green, the chair of the One Nation group, said that Kruger’s diagnosis of the problems facing the party was flawed. “The old saying that it’s the economy, stupid, still applies for general elections,” he said. “That’s where the Conservatives should fight. We need to convince would-be Conservative voters of all kinds if we want to win.”

MaizieD Fri 12-Jan-24 20:49:42

GrannyGravy13

I sincerely hope that the Conservatives are not obliterated as any Government needs a robust opposition.

How would you characterise a 'robust opposition', GG13?

I can't visualise it.

I certainly think that government needs to be held to account, which has something that has been sadly lacking latterly as tha Executive has done its best to marginalise Parliament by controlling the time table so as to give the Legislature (parliament) minimal time to scrutinise proposed legislation, by ignoring conventions, such as the ministerial code and informing Parliament of new policy before informing the public, and legislating themselves sweeping powers, to alter actual legislation without the alteration coming before Parliament. In other words, the Executive (the government) has done its utmost to eliminate opposition and being held to account.

I would like to see a reversion to decency in government.

Farzanah Fri 12-Jan-24 19:22:30

I think it is shameful that Britain only ranks 17th in the quality of democracy rankings. We definitely need to change our FPTP system, amongst other things..

GrannyGravy13 Fri 12-Jan-24 19:16:30

I sincerely hope that the Conservatives are not obliterated as any Government needs a robust opposition.

varian Fri 12-Jan-24 18:38:28

The Conservative party is an unhealthy coalition of the the "one nation Conservatives", "the Centre right," "Far right" and some populist Nationalists (possibly fascists).

This is a direct result of the First Past The Post Electoral System, not used in any democracies (which all use PR).

The UK is the only European country which elects its government by FPTP, except for Belarus.

In a true democracy these parties of the right would all be standing on their own platforms .

It would not be possible for a right wing conglomerate to gain total absolute power on the basis of a vote of a minority of the electorate.

Why should we, in the UK, not try to become democracy, bu replacing FPTP by PR?

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jan-24 17:39:55

Whilst I do agree RR and the lack of evident Keynesianism I am prepared to wait to see what happens if they get into government.

I shall then feel more confident in my criticism - if I feel critical😄.

MaizieD Fri 12-Jan-24 13:31:28

growstuff

Maizie I'm not disagreeing with you. I was just challenging the description of "banking illiterate" because Reeves most certainly isn't.

I wasn't disagreeing with you, either, growstuff. Just expressing my doubts about Reeves grin

MaizieD Fri 12-Jan-24 13:28:47

Katie59

Reeves certainly well versed in banking and economic theories, the problem is that political constraints on economic action has defeated UK governments for decades. There is no likely hood of this changing for the better.

There are no 'political' restraints on economic action which have 'defeated' the UK. Restraints have been driven purely by ideological choice.

I don't recall any great enthusiasm in the country for privatisation of large parts of the public sector, it happened because of Thatcher's small state, free market ideology. It could be turned round with causing problems in the economy...

growstuff Fri 12-Jan-24 12:03:53

Maizie I'm not disagreeing with you. I was just challenging the description of "banking illiterate" because Reeves most certainly isn't.

Katie59 Fri 12-Jan-24 11:39:53

Reeves certainly well versed in banking and economic theories, the problem is that political constraints on economic action has defeated UK governments for decades. There is no likely hood of this changing for the better.

ronib Fri 12-Jan-24 10:47:48

Unearned dividend income is taxed at
8.75 percent basic tax
33.75 percent higher tax
39.35 additional rate tax
After first £1k tax free. Of course ISAs are tax free.
If anything I think earned income tax needs to be decreased and unearned income increased.

MaizieD Fri 12-Jan-24 10:41:43

growstuff

Freya5

Farzanah

I follow Richard Murphy’s blog on tax research.org. I think he introduces more creative ideas than the current mainstream right wing economic thinking.

Let's see where the left wing get , if they get into power, re taxes. With the banking illiterate Reeves as Chancellor, I feel more chaos to come.

As opposed to the banking "literate" Hunt?

I think Reeves should claim a refund from Oxford Uni and the LSE, if she's a "banking illiterate". She obviously didn't learn much when she worked for the Bank of England or HBOS either.

I have no doubt that Reeves is not 'banking illiterate', growstuff but a knowledge of banking doesn't necessarily go hand in hand with a knowledge of macroeconomics, which is where I think Reeves is lacking. From my reading of heterodox economists (i.e those who don't subscribe to the dominant Friedmanist neoliberal economic theory imposed on the UK since Thatcher) they point out that a) universities tend to teach the dominant version and b) it focuses on microeconomics and theory rather than empirical macro.

She is said to favour Keynesianism, but nothing so far has shown that she does. Though, of course, we have to factor in Labour's extreme fear of the 'How are you going to pay for it?' question. Keynes is anathema to the 'establishment'.

Katie59 Fri 12-Jan-24 10:19:29

The problem with taxing the wealthy is that most of the wealth is tied up in company valuation and cannot be taxed until shares are sold, dividends, when they are paid are taxed accordingly, you would have to change company taxation to get significantly more revenue.

My own opinion is that allowing a couple to pass nearly £1m to beneficiaries without taxation is too high and perpetuates social division. Maybe a wealth tax on privately owned property, or CGT on residential property would be more equitable. That change is going to be deeply unpopular so I don’t see it happening.

growstuff Fri 12-Jan-24 10:12:24

Freya5

Farzanah

I follow Richard Murphy’s blog on tax research.org. I think he introduces more creative ideas than the current mainstream right wing economic thinking.

Let's see where the left wing get , if they get into power, re taxes. With the banking illiterate Reeves as Chancellor, I feel more chaos to come.

As opposed to the banking "literate" Hunt?

I think Reeves should claim a refund from Oxford Uni and the LSE, if she's a "banking illiterate". She obviously didn't learn much when she worked for the Bank of England or HBOS either.

Gundy Fri 12-Jan-24 09:35:19

American politics seem to be “hand in glove” to UK politics. A trend that is coursing globally. Frightening.

If Conservatives (aka Republicans, MAGA, entitled 1%’ers, the circus…) win in 2024, this very well can be the end to our Democracy.

Currently they have NO platform they are running on - only vengeance and retribution. Here’s where the frightening part comes in - there are plenty of unhappy people feeling disenfranchised who are willing to “burn it all down” supporting this party.

Vote to unelect them, vote to reestablish a democratic system, most of all… VOTE!
USA Gundy

Freya5 Fri 12-Jan-24 09:28:43

Farzanah

I follow Richard Murphy’s blog on tax research.org. I think he introduces more creative ideas than the current mainstream right wing economic thinking.

Let's see where the left wing get , if they get into power, re taxes. With the banking illiterate Reeves as Chancellor, I feel more chaos to come.

Farzanah Fri 12-Jan-24 09:18:25

I follow Richard Murphy’s blog on tax research.org. I think he introduces more creative ideas than the current mainstream right wing economic thinking.

ronib Fri 12-Jan-24 09:11:35

Cossy Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates covers tax brilliantly. Definitely worth reading.

Cossy Fri 12-Jan-24 07:46:47

Sorry I too think our current tax system favours the wealthy and penalises the lower paid. Just the fact that this govt has frozen the personal tax allowance til 2028 illustrates this. However, I don’t wish to see very high taxes returned via income tax, I’d never wish to see any form of “brain drain” In my simplistic world simply sorting out windfall taxes where any sector is making massive profits, non dom tax rules and ensuring all corporations and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of taxes would go some way to help out.

I don’t think anyone wants to see a return to spend spend spend, even if there was any money left to spend!

Let’s hope for change, it’s due, I simply cannot see Tory’s changing things for the better for Mr & Mrs Average.

DrWatson Fri 12-Jan-24 02:41:00

For Flapper & Spabby, whilst praising Blair, you might add in those 2 thoroughly pointless wars, which have gained us assorted terrorism attacks ever since. You could also recall the economy being totally drained by those generous benefits, and a massive surge in council jobs, plus that admin did nothing to correct Thatcher's failure to build more social housing after her very popular sale of council houses?

I see you refer to the NHS and "wouldn't have happened but for Labour"? This is a myth. The London County Council under a 'Municipal Reform' majority in 1930 (Labour were then a minority there) took over 100+ hospitals and ran them in a forerunner of the NHS. A Health Minister in WW2 (Willink - Tory) laid out the spec for a post-war NHS. Yes, the post-war Labout Govt under Attlee implemented it, but various historians have stated that it would have happened under the Tories too. And the country thought so highly of Attlee that he got voted out just 3 yrs after that 1948 NHS birth.

That "People choose to forget inconvenient truths." is quite ironic, especially re that "Brexit" statement?? [NB And I repeat, undue faith in any politicos has long been shown to be a triumph of optimism over reality!] www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Birth-of-the-NHS/

DrWatson Fri 12-Jan-24 02:13:03

For Flappergirl, and that "I hope sincerely hope they will be obliterated and if Brexit is their greatest . . ." - yet someone else with no accurate recollection. Dave & George were the Tory leaders in 2016, and the OFFICIAL TORY POLICY was to . . . .wait for it . . . REMAIN. They campaigned for Remain, and had the whole country issued with that glossy little booklet urging folk to vote that way, "and be careful, it's a binding vote". When that campaign failed, Dave resigned. You forgot?

Sure, after a period of Mrs May faffing about, BoJo got the Brexit vote through, after the 2019 election landslide, BACKED by LOTS of Labour MPs, who did not want to be seen going against that public vote.

[NB - personally I have no great faith in ANY politicos, any badge, to show much commonsense and competence, or a willingness to put OUR interests ahead of self and party. Call me old and cynical, but nearly 6 decades of voting and a lot of evidence sent me that way!]

Iam64 Thu 11-Jan-24 20:31:26

flappergirl and spa by girl 👏👏👏👏

flappergirl Thu 11-Jan-24 20:26:14

spabbygirl

Blairs new Labour did a lot of good, I had a disability & before him there was no right to have suitable equipment at work, I work at social services & there were no disabled parking bays, I asked why not & a manager said 'disabled people don't come here'! But all that changed under Blair, also Sure Start centres which as a child protection social worker were fab, they helped many families get over a rough spot, also they had a more compassionate benefits system. Years back Labour started the NHS, the Tories have been trying to reduce it as we've seen. I don't care who is in charge of Labour, they get my vote

Oh how I echo your sentiments. New Labour under Blair made life better for so many. They also introduced the minimum wage.

If Labour had never formed we would not have the NHS, safe working environments or the first Equalities Act. Without Labour children would still be working in mills. People choose to forget inconvenient truths.

ronib Thu 11-Jan-24 20:13:43

Katie59 Dan Neidle explains it better than I could.

ronib Thu 11-Jan-24 20:01:05

I believe I picked up on Dan Neidle’s estimate of £8billion loss of taxation per year due to differences in tax on earned/unearned income. I respect Dan Neidle - sort of! Just think how many doctors that would pacify.

MaizieD Thu 11-Jan-24 17:07:29

ronib

MaizieD oh dear! I must be the only person who objects very strongly to the unjust, harsh and cruel tax system for the majority of working people in this country. Obviously need to be reeducated Soviet style!! I seriously think that investment income needs to attract much higher taxes.

Good lord, ronib. Have you only just discovered that the current workings of our neoliberal economy are grossly unfair to the less well off?