Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point

Please excuse typos.

Katie59

petra

People migrating from Africa etc because of climate conditions is nothing new. This article is 13 years old and more than likely it’s been happening for eons.

www.iom.int/news/drought-related-migration-increase-horn-africa

Migration is not primarily due to climate it is Economic or Political migration, in many parts of Africa in particular population growth has exceeded the capacity of the country to feed itself.

The other thing about is that parts of Africa are so productive and could feed the whole continent, were it not for wars and conflicts, even within nations.

Katie59

pascal30

Thank goodness for people like your son Whitewavemark..I remember James Lovelock's predictions so many years ago when people ridiculed him.. His predictions have happened sooner than even he thought possible.. and yet still some people choose to ignore what is happening..

In 2006 Lovelock predicted that by the middle of this century that most of the Earth would be uninhabitable

Clearly an extreme prediction

but sadly becoming true.. it's only 26 years away..

petra

People migrating from Africa etc because of climate conditions is nothing new. This article is 13 years old and more than likely it’s been happening for eons.

www.iom.int/news/drought-related-migration-increase-horn-africa

Migration is not primarily due to climate it is Economic or Political migration, in many parts of Africa in particular population growth has exceeded the capacity of the country to feed itself.

pascal30

Thank goodness for people like your son Whitewavemark..I remember James Lovelock's predictions so many years ago when people ridiculed him.. His predictions have happened sooner than even he thought possible.. and yet still some people choose to ignore what is happening..

In 2006 Lovelock predicted that by the middle of this century that most of the Earth would be uninhabitable

Clearly an extreme prediction

Worth reading this article in the Daily Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/09/climate-change-modelling-wrong-claim-uk-scientists/
which quotes British scientists pouring some much needed 'cold water' on the florid claims made in the study - and how its authors fiddled the inputs to get the outcome they desired.
An extract:
However British scientists warned that the outcome had been “forced” by using unlikely variables, such as assuming large influxes of freshwater into the Atlantic.

Prof Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre at Bristol University, said: “They did this by imposing a huge freshwater forcing to the North Atlantic that is entirely unrealistic for even the most extreme warming scenario over the next century.

“Their freshwater forcing applied to the North Atlantic is equivalent to six cm/year of sea level rise by the end of the experiment, which is more than seen during the collapse of the ice sheet that covered North America during the last glaciation.”

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that the AMOC is unlikely to collapse this century, and many scientists do not believe it will fail even if the climate continues to warm.

Thank goodness for people like your son Whitewavemark..I remember James Lovelock's predictions so many years ago when people ridiculed him.. His predictions have happened sooner than even he thought possible.. and yet still some people choose to ignore what is happening..

karmalady

I don`t need scientific papers ww. I studied oceanography and geophysics as part of my scientific background. I am definitely not a scaremonger, unlike some who like to subliminally worry people and seem to spend all their waking hours doing so. Misery does indeed like company

Then it seems that you need to get more up to date.

My son, an environmental scientist works extensively with climatologists, and his profession involves mitigating against climate change.

So I listen to him and am thankful that there are agencies that do indeed listen to and take action to try to reduce devastation that is and will be caused by climate change.

So he has been involved with flood defence, both structurally and naturally, and in doing so, he makes every effort to put value back into the natural environment.

Positive action is the way to go!

My AC are well-educated, well-travelled and intelligent. Yet they don't seem to heed the warnings. They are always buying yet more and more stuff for their houses and they think nothing of jetting off on holiday. I have gone on and on about the effect on the environment to no avail. I think most people of a similar age are the same. I think most of them think that somebody else will sort the problem. And yet if that generation isn't too bothered there isn't much hope. I'd be an activist if I was younger.

We are witnessing huge changes more rapidly than the catastrophic changes which have occurred over millennia and we need to adapt.
The alternative is extinction.

I don`t need scientific papers ww. I studied oceanography and geophysics as part of my scientific background. I am definitely not a scaremonger, unlike some who like to subliminally worry people and seem to spend all their waking hours doing so. Misery does indeed like company

People migrating from Africa etc because of climate conditions is nothing new. This article is 13 years old and more than likely it’s been happening for eons.

www.iom.int/news/drought-related-migration-increase-horn-africa

Or it might turn out that another part of our planet will offer the best chances of survival and we Brits could become the migrants!

Yes that occurred to me at the time I posted that! But thought bringing migrants into the conversation might take it into the wrong direction😄😄

True, there are changes going on all the time. Usually they are very slow, taking thousands or millions of years. giving the life forms then existing the time to evolve at the same speed so that their descendants become adapted to the changes.

What is different about the climate change process going on at the moment is the speed of chnge - within living memory there have been big changes. There could be many extinctions. Human beings are intelligent and resourceful enough to survive, but their way of life may have to change radically, and there may be mass migrations to more hospitable areas. That would almost certainly lead to wars for space and resources.

It would not necessarily alll be "good news when the system stops the U.K. will be much colder, while the rest of the world burns." They might all come here to get away from the parched earth. What kind of reception would they get?

The earth is always in a state of flux, nothing is static. We are living within a very tiny time frame wrt earth age and these movements and changes will be frightening because we know about them now, through advanced technology and science
Very true, karmalady.
Earth undergoes constant change and so does our relationship with our sun, moon and solar system.
Huge changes happened relatively recently, 10,000 years ago and and fairly rapidly too.
We've experienced a period of relative stability for a long time.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0fpwhhm/earth It's quite interesting to watch this series on the history of the Earth.

Whitewavemark2

Still one bit of good news when the system stops the U.K. will be much colder, while the rest of the world burns.

We've known for ages that the 'pump' which drives the Gulf Stream is melting, which will result in us having weather more like the Nordic countries.

I doubt I'll be here to see it but what a mess to leave our grandchildren.

It is just so depressing

keepingquiet

We are now the dominant species on earth? Not for much longer.
In terms of 'dominance' that has lasted millenia but only in the last few centuries or even decades, these problems have arisen?

I don't agree with the premise of your argument.

As a species we are too clever for our own good, we can control most things, exploit resources even explore the solar system and conquer diseases. So far we have not been able to control population growth or climate, for both these challenges we have got to try much harder.
Globally we have got to reduce consumption this will mean a reduction in lifestyle for western nations, maybe the next generation will come to accept this, we are a long way from that at present

Katie59

“Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point,”

That is pure speculation, nobody has any idea what the “tipping point” will be, they have invented their own data points. The facts are that nobody knows how the ocean currents will interact with each other as climate changes.

We don't know that they won't either.

So which would be the worst scenario?

1) We assume that the predictions are correct, use things for longer before replacing them, wear more warm clothes instead of turning up the thermostat, use less carbon-releasing fossil fuel, stop filling landfill sites with carbon and methane producing waste, avoid transport options that are costly in greenhouse gas production, slow down our production of greenhouse gasses, and stop or even reverse the process.

2) We keep doing all the things that are known to increase the factors that can lead to climate change and risk reaching a point of no return, after which it will be impossible to stop a chain reaction.

If we take the first option, we might never know for certain whether we had made a difference, or whether it was all scaremongering - but we would still have a world that was fit for us to live in, and there could be some good side effects - like cleaner air, less need for more and more landfill sites, and less need for diminishing stocks of raw materials to be mined to replace goods that still had a lot of use in them.

If we take the second, we might not know whether we made the right decision either. If we got it wrong it might take decades for conditions to deteriorate so much that none of the earth was inhabitable - but our grandchildren would know.

Will they come to condemn us for our selfishness, for taking the easy option instead of making sure we take out insurance against a potential disasterfor humans? Is it worth risking their future for the sake of a bit of foresight and care now?

https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202402/medium-689852-screenshot-2024-02-11-at-13-46-45-global-population-10-000bce-2100-statista.png https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202402/medium-23849-screenshot-2024-02-11-at-13-53-37-what-are-greenhouse-gases-ghg-emission-sources.png https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202402/medium-669057-screenshot-2024-02-11-at-14-03-07-global-average-temperature-records.png

It isn't my premise. It is the result of accumulated records collected by many organisations..

Estimated global population from 10,000BCE to 2100
www.statista.com/statistics/1006502/global-population-ten-thousand-bc-to-2050/

What are Greenhouse gases?
www.cooleffect.org/why-carbon

How global-average temperature records work.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate/science/global-temperature-records

“Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point,”

That is pure speculation, nobody has any idea what the “tipping point” will be, they have invented their own data points. The facts are that nobody knows how the ocean currents will interact with each other as climate changes.

keepingquiet

We are now the dominant species on earth? Not for much longer.
In terms of 'dominance' that has lasted millenia but only in the last few centuries or even decades, these problems have arisen?

I don't agree with the premise of your argument.

It is only in the last few centuries, since the industrial revolution, that large factories have been turning out goods in bulk at prices that the ordinary worker could afford, powered first by water mills and then by the abundant coal that was being mined. Before that, the inventories that accompany even quite well-to-do wills show what we would think are pretty sparsely furnished and equipped households. Most of the population had only the necessities, and many not even a fire to put smoke into the atmosphere..

The crises in farming in the "hungry forties" of the early 19th C meant that many hungry country-dwellers migrated to the towns and provided a large (and cheap) workforce for the factories.

Quite right jaxjacky.

People just don’t care, well, many of those we know and those I read about online. Still hopping on and off planes, still buying excess clothing and ‘stuff’, as a microcosm GN offers a sample of those people.