Gransnet forums

News & politics

Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 11:27:07

Galaxy

To be fair Blair in his own way was booted out from within.
I would like a little more of the Tory ruthlessness in the labour party, a few years ago that would have been very beneficial.
It may be urban myth but wasnt Corbyns nomination as leader done from a position of pity, I vaguely remember Margaret Beckett saying that.

Yes it was! There were nominations put in but no nomination from the left and it was thought to balance it there should be a nomination from the left.

The rest is history as they say!

Urmstongran Sat 15-Jun-24 10:58:27

Nigel Farage is ‘trying to destroy the Conservative Party’, says Lord Cameron.

No Dave, Sir Nigel Farage is heroically trying to reverse your awful legacy, there’s a difference.

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 10:55:55

It seemed that as it was supposed to be a foregone conclusion there was no need to turn up to vote Labour. I only hope this doesn’t happen this time and that all voters are registered or have a passport, driving license , travel pass to ensure they do despite how busy they are

Exactly Lovetopaint👏👏👏

I hope people aren’t lulled into a false sense of security (or complacency) by these poll figures. Every Labour supporter absolutely must vote!

We cannot take anything for granted - no matter what the polls say!

Galaxy Sat 15-Jun-24 10:50:00

Yes it was something like 'oh he should be allowed a chance'. So yes a bit of ruthlessness there would have been helpful.

MayBee70 Sat 15-Jun-24 10:47:16

Galaxy

To be fair Blair in his own way was booted out from within.
I would like a little more of the Tory ruthlessness in the labour party, a few years ago that would have been very beneficial.
It may be urban myth but wasnt Corbyns nomination as leader done from a position of pity, I vaguely remember Margaret Beckett saying that.

I don’t think it was pity but balance? Either way she bitterly regretted it ( nominating him not saying it!).

Lovetopaint037 Sat 15-Jun-24 10:27:59

Some years ago the Labour Party led by Neil Kinnok were forecasted to win by a landslide. Well they didn’t which really upset me. The Tories won easily. It seemed that as it was supposed to be a foregone conclusion there was no need to turn up to vote Labour. I only hope this doesn’t happen this time and that all voters are registered or have a passport, driving license , travel pass to ensure they do despite how busy they are.

Galaxy Sat 15-Jun-24 10:25:56

To be fair Blair in his own way was booted out from within.
I would like a little more of the Tory ruthlessness in the labour party, a few years ago that would have been very beneficial.
It may be urban myth but wasnt Corbyns nomination as leader done from a position of pity, I vaguely remember Margaret Beckett saying that.

growstuff Sat 15-Jun-24 10:23:47

Casdon

You have to laugh - latest offering from Johnson in the Mail.
Is headed:
‘If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon’

How many more childish and offensive names does he have lined up? Last week it was Keir Schnorrer. Schnorrer is a Yiddish derogatory Yiddish word for "scrounger" or "beggar".

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 10:21:04

Agreed WW.

I’m not counting any chickens🤞🤞🤞 but I am confident in KS’s strength of character.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 10:08:39

LizzieDrip

WW I’m not convinced by the polls citing such large numbers for Labour.

It’s clear that the Tories are now pushing the idea that a massive Labour majority would be ‘bad for democracy’ in order to suppress the Labour vote - damage limitation.

Yes I’m the same - I think July 5th will see a very different result but hopefully with a respectable Labour win.

But I do think governments with massive majorities are ungovernable.

We saw it with Johnson - although Blair always seem to hold it together.

Starmer May well find the left ungovernable eventually, but we shall see. He is undoubtedly a strong leader and is clearly ruthless if necessary.

Maybe it is just Tory leaders who are a bit spineless. Look at Cameron and the result if his weakness. May tried hard but was undone by her manifesto. Thatcher was pretty tough but even she was booted out by her own party in the end.

Galaxy Sat 15-Jun-24 09:46:54

A massive labour majority would be worrying in the same way Johnsons result was worrying. I hope Starmer has the strength of character to 'manage' that so to speak.

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 09:01:01

WW I’m not convinced by the polls citing such large numbers for Labour.

It’s clear that the Tories are now pushing the idea that a massive Labour majority would be ‘bad for democracy’ in order to suppress the Labour vote - damage limitation.

LizzieDrip Sat 15-Jun-24 08:54:20

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now

Allsorts I don’t remember Sunak standing up against Johnson when he unlawfully prorogued parliament.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:35:17

I actually think that a government with that level of majority will become totally ungovernable, so I am certainly not rejoicing at such a high level.

But if it does come to pass it does show the almost total rejection of Tory values snd governance I think.

The U.K. is largely a centre-ish (bit left, bit right) with nothing extreme. The Tories would do well to learn that lesson.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:30:12

Electoral Calculus dated 14 th June

Predicted seats with a 95% level of certainty (they say)

Labour 461
Tory 80
Libs 63
SNP 20
Plaid 3
Greens 2
Reform 1

Iam64 Sat 15-Jun-24 08:00:17

Urmstongran, I don’t believe Reform will win enough seats to form the opposition. I don’t see the party as positive for the country. Farage is a racist and it’s becoming clear the same can be said of many of Reform’s candidates.
Immigration is a key issue in this election. Many people blame ‘the boats’ for pressure on our public services and housing. Government policies, including the failure to manage and process asylum seekers are central though to the dreadful state of public services.
Farage has nothing constructive to offer. Like Trump, he appeals to the worst in humanity. (Excluding urmston from that blanket statement)

Iam64 Sat 15-Jun-24 07:52:58

Allsorts

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

It’s a political expectation and tradition to support your party leader. I don’t believe Starmer or Rayner have abandoned the belief systems that led them into the LP. Corbyn won the leadership because party members and activists supported most of his policies. He was a dreadful leader, as many of us feared he’d be.

J52 Sat 15-Jun-24 07:25:06

Allsorts

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

Didn’t Farage himself say that people are allowed to change their minds.
Circumstances sometimes require people to be flexible. The country is now in quite a different situation.

Allsorts Sat 15-Jun-24 07:06:06

Can anyone tell me how Keir and Angela have done a full u turn on being full on Corbyn supporters to what they are supposed to be now. Impossible.

MayBee70 Sat 15-Jun-24 00:05:12

Pre referendum we were chatting to some people on a Conservative Remain stall in a local marketplace. They bemoaned the fact that their party had become ‘just a load of journalists’. At the time we didn’t understand what they meant but looking at people like Johnson and Gove I now understand why they feared for the future of their party. I don’t understand how Johnson has the gall to tell people to vote for a party that he helped destroy purely for his own personal narcissistic ambitions.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 22:39:05

Casdon

You have to laugh - latest offering from Johnson in the Mail.
Is headed:
‘If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon’

He's really getting into the Daily Mail narrative isn't he!

What a fall from grace - PM to media hack.

I think he might be competing with Farage - though even Farage has a bit more panache with the written and spoken word.

Starmergeddon, LOL!

Casdon Fri 14-Jun-24 22:07:46

You have to laugh - latest offering from Johnson in the Mail.
Is headed:
‘If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon’

Casdon Fri 14-Jun-24 21:55:38

UKIP polled 19% at their peak Galaxy. Whether Reform will be another flash in the pan we don’t know yet, but bear in mind the Tories have been hanging in there since 1678 and they won’t go down without a fight. I’ve seen suggestions that Farage wants to become an MP above all, then he will drop Reform and bid to be the next Tory leader.

Galaxy Fri 14-Jun-24 21:40:47

Their position in the polls is significant it's not a good idea to pretend it isnt. Parties such as reform can implode but I wouldnt be amazed if they become the opposition, maybe not this election but the next. The Tories if history is anything to go by will flounder in opposition and pick a range of weak leaders.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 21:34:33

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well)

Please tell me you are joking, and that you know Reform won’t be even close to being the majority opposition party?

Obviously that will be one of the main parties, and the SNP will (continue to) have more MPs than Reform.