Follow the Polls

Get the Sky Polltracker Whitewavemark, it’s a running summary of all the pollls, so it’s a more accurate picture than following one pollster. You can download it as an app from Sky News. It’s currently showing a 21 point lead for Labour.

13/05

Labour. 44%

Tories. 23%

Reform. 13%

LibDem. 10%

Greens. 6%

SNP 2%

Plaid 1%

UKIP 1%

Casdon

Get the Sky Polltracker Whitewavemark, it’s a running summary of all the pollls, so it’s a more accurate picture than following one pollster. You can download it as an app from Sky News. It’s currently showing a 21 point lead for Labour.

So is politico, but we can do both or if you think Sky Tracker is better go with that. They only show trends anyway, so I’m cool with whatever we do.

I’ll just put up sky trackers as well.

Oh! I’ve had a look they are more or less the same.

So I’ll leave it for now and start say tomorrow if there is any movement.

the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably makethe various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make
Yes I'd like to follow that one!
I'm abroad now until just before the election, so all my information will be taken from GN! I know which party is likely to win. I've already made up my mind so I won't waste valuable holiday time.

I'm abroad now until just before the election

We fly out at 6am on July 4th, so we'll miss all the post-election coverage ✈️
(We have a postal vote beforehand).

So how to play this?

Perhaps only record on this thread what are considered by the media etc (that’s where the voter will largely see it) to be a gaff?

Or I suppose big impressive remarks will also make a difference, but I don’t expect there to be many of those😄.

I can’t find an app for Politico Whitewavemark, that why I like the Sky one, because you don’t have to go via the website - I’m lazy. They should be pretty much the same in content though.
I’m hoping that there will be some seat specific polls to predict where big heads will roll. I also think we might see a rash of resignations over the next couple of weeks, from all parties, partly because this date seems to have caught a lot of people on the hop.

The most accurate polls, in recent years, have been by Sir John Curtice and Lord Ashcroft.

But, all of them are only as good as what people tell them.🙂

Oh an app. I hadn’t thought of that.

Yes if things can be believed Sunak, jumped in pdq for a number of reasons. Firstly the 1922 letters had reached tipping point. And according to Sky - this is as good as it gets, everything points to the situation getting worse again next winter. So Sunak couldn’t wait until the autumn, when signs of the continual slide begins to show again.

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

DiamondLily

The most accurate polls, in recent years, have been by Sir John Curtice and Lord Ashcroft.

But, all of them are only as good as what people tell them.🙂

So I guess it is trends that we are interested in then rather than pin point accuracy.

Can you copy and paste casdon?

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

Good for you! If only we were all so sensible.

I’m lazy. So am I, that's why I think Whitewavemark2 is onto something condensing all the faux pas into one thread. Or else we will have 56 million other threads on the go? Anyway, I've got to make pas now and head off out.

This is it.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-poll-tracker-will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-12903488

Thanks Whitewave (and Casdon) this will likely be an interesting thread. Mind you - the bookies odds are usually very accurate as they will be putting money where their mouths are!
😁

Urmstongran

Thanks Whitewave (and Casdon) this will likely be an interesting thread. Mind you - the bookies odds are usually very accurate as they will be putting money where their mouths are!
😁

So OddsChecker (I need an interpreter!). With most seats

Labour 2/17

Tories 14/1

Others 10/1

Great 👍

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

👏👏👏👏

Whitewavemark2

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

I looked it up. This is the principle.

A bet with odds of 9/1 odds has a 10% probability of occurring, whereas a bet with odds of 1/2 has a 50% probability.

I can’t do the maths off the top of my head, but 2/17 odds must be very much in favour of a Labour victory.

In layperson's terms, it means that the bookies are sure that Labour will win and nobody else has a hope in hell.

I thought that this was interesting.

Because of the big Tory majority, Labour has a much more difficult task.

So Labour will need something like a 12% lead in the polls to get a majority of just 1.

The Tories have a much less onerous task.

Absolutely nothing can be taken for granted by the Labour Party.

I’ve just seen that Farage isn’t standing. Richard Tice is launching the Reform campaign this morning, I wonder if he will announce any more Tory MP defections, or perhaps announce that Reform won’t stand anybody and will throw Reform’s hat in with the Tories? Exciting times.

Aveline

I probably won't watch/read the media at all. I just can't face all the nonsense that will inevitably go on. I'll read the party manifestos and vote accordingly.

... me too, Aveline.

We know, in advance, the point-scoring accusations that will be levelled by one party against another.

It will be mildly interesting to see what Sunak and his government who are, understandably, rather keen to hold on to power, come up with to persuade the voters, but apart from that, it will be the same old same old.

And meanwhile, I still cannot get a future appointment with my GP and don't know what to do to secure one. I have tried 111 (it's not urgent enough for A&E), but they have told me to contact my GP. I attempted an e-consult form online, but it's only 'open' in surgery hours and as I was near the end of the day, the submissions reached their quota and I was 'timed-out'.

... small, unimportant stuff - but for many of us the kind of day-to-day minutiae that matters but which will most likely not be addressed during the politicking.

... as long as no politicians promises to "deliver" something-or-other to the British people, I think I can cope.