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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 21:28:55

Urmstongran

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

The devil is in the detail. A little more 'detail' is necessary otherwise what is one actually voting for?

I think people already understand Reform's broad-outlook in principle, but at some point that's got to translate into this is what we would do No? Particularly if they are going to be in Opposition.

Some have complained that Starmer, as the Opposition, simply attacks Sunak but doesn't come up with any ideas - those are the lines I'm thinking along. If Reform are going to hold Starmer's feet to the fire, they, equally, will have to do more than simply 'rubbish' him - that's the easy bit.

Wheniwasyourage Fri 14-Jun-24 21:25:09

Urmstongran

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

Rubbish! Sorry, Urmstongran, but rubbish! Apart from anything else, the Faragist party, whatever they call themselves this time, may get a certain number of votes, but as we still use the outdated FPTP system they are unlikely to get enough seats to be any sort of opposition in the House of Commons. As for their policies, IMO they are rubbish too. the man Farage is just full of himself and overindulged by the media.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 21:15:44

MayBee70

I suppose, as a limited company and not a political party, a contract makes much more sense.

Good point!

MayBee70 Fri 14-Jun-24 20:27:47

I suppose, as a limited company and not a political party, a contract makes much more sense.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-24 19:57:10

Reform will be good for the country as ‘opposition’. Holding Starmer's feet to the fire in the HoC (all being well).

Talking of manifestos (which the parties ignore anyway once in power) Farage said ‘we’re not providing one. We will set out a contract instead.’

Fair enough.
We only need a broad outlook of their viewpoint at this stage as they are not going to be in government.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 18:52:33

MayBee70

Siope

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

Yes. I was going to mention that. He’s demanding a head to head with Starmer because he knows it wouldn’t be possible anyway. He’s failed to get elected many time, what right has he got to make these demands angry. He’s only here because even Trump had the sense to not want to use him. This is another Emperors New Clothes situation where many of us are bemused why others can’t see this man for what he is ( as also happened with Johnson).

He should be "demanding" a head-to-head with Sunak not Starmer.

His argument is with the Conservatives who he's accused of failing to institute Brexit as he thinks it should have been done, and immigration which he believes the party has messed up on.

“You can recognise the fact that some people are good at what they do even if they have evil intent.”

... his view on Putin. Who, of course, he doesn't like as a human being but admires as an 'operator'.

I'm wary of anyone who admires a politician who has his opponents murdered, even to the extent of endangering the lives of those in another country in order to destroy them. Corbyn was castigated for suggesting that we prove that Russia was involved in the Salisbury attack - are we going to get a similar 'request' from Farage in order to support his evident admiration for Putin?

I personally would like to see him grilled alone on Reform's manifesto, hear him explain how some of those fine words (which butter no parsnips) translate into action, the reality of their plans to fix the NHS, community care, etc.

Going head-to-head with either Sunak or Starmer will just end up with the usual accusations and counter-accusations and this does not illuminate their manifesto promises to the public.

I have no intention of voting for this (I believe) dangerous populist, but the manifesto is so light on how the various issues that worry the electorate would be dealt with, that I would like Farage to explain it in detail so that people are totally aware of what they are voting for. At the moment, it seems to rest on "he tells it like it is". Well, yes - to some degree everyone can do that, some more eloquently than others, we can all say that people are 'fed-up with this, that and the other', but what does that prove, and what are the answers?

MayBee70 Fri 14-Jun-24 17:09:23

Siope

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

Yes. I was going to mention that. He’s demanding a head to head with Starmer because he knows it wouldn’t be possible anyway. He’s failed to get elected many time, what right has he got to make these demands angry. He’s only here because even Trump had the sense to not want to use him. This is another Emperors New Clothes situation where many of us are bemused why others can’t see this man for what he is ( as also happened with Johnson).

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 16:21:05

Just to remind all those who think Farage’s demands for more airtime are reasonable: he was too scared to take up the offer of a 30 minute prime time BBC interview slot, which was offered to, and accepted by, all the other party leaders.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 16:13:48

Nicenanny3

Starmer would be out of his depth going head to head with Nigel Farage, Farage would win hands down. Starmer would be lost without his autoque and Starmer's policies would be torn to shreds, it won’t happen. Starmer's last interview when he mentioned God knows how many times before that his father was a tool maker and the audience laughed and there he was the next day saying his father would turn in his grave because people laughed at him being a tool maker, they were laughing at you Starmer you idiot.

Starmer is not a natural orator - Farage is.

It's what they would / will do for the nation - as a whole - that matters. To me, anyway.

Boris Johnson was not exactly eloquent when speaking, either, but remained (and remains) popular. And La Truss made quie a few people cringe when holding forth.

Politicians are not all blessed with the gift of fluency in public speaking. Much like everyone else.

But we will / would all be more affected by what they do rather than what they say and how they say it.

Nicenanny3 Fri 14-Jun-24 16:03:29

Starmer would be out of his depth going head to head with Nigel Farage, Farage would win hands down. Starmer would be lost without his autoque and Starmer's policies would be torn to shreds, it won’t happen. Starmer's last interview when he mentioned God knows how many times before that his father was a tool maker and the audience laughed and there he was the next day saying his father would turn in his grave because people laughed at him being a tool maker, they were laughing at you Starmer you idiot.

Casdon Fri 14-Jun-24 14:24:13

I’d prefer to see an in depth interview for Farage, similar to the Beth Rigby one (preferably with a better interviewer) where he is asked probing questions about his policies. The more I’ve watched of the head to heads with two or multiple parties there the more it seems just a sound bite opportunity, and slagging off the other parties, nothing new is said.

Urmstongran Fri 14-Jun-24 13:46:51

A good debate would be Farage v Starmer with Rishi making the sandwiches.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 13:24:30

Yes, they have. Dickens implied it when she mentioned her neighbour, who thinks Sunak isn't somehow "British".

The neighbour could hardly deny he was British - be he was not very British. No idea what it is he lacks in her view to qualify for being not very-British, and she couldn't explain it either.

One can pussy-foot around and pretend not to understand but I suspect his heritage is what bothers her. Because nothing else makes sense.

Wyllow3 Fri 14-Jun-24 12:42:32

"A resurgent Labour party is leading the Tories in red wall areas by more than 20 points — roughly in line with national polls — according to research by Redfield and Wilton, a polling firm.

Financial Times quote
www.ft.com/content/f1d18aef-b9d6-4cbc-969a-1cb4c312c47e
tho you may catch a paywall, this is from that article.

growstuff Fri 14-Jun-24 12:40:50

Nicenanny3

Siope

But why is anyone who voted Tory surprised / shocked / upset about this?

I do t necessarily think they are. I think Tory voters (and party members) dislike him for other reasons, ranging from not white or right enough to unable to co tell the right-wing of the party. I think much of the wider electorate dislike his ’laissez-faire economics. The result is a trough of unpopularity he can’t escape because it’s too broad as well as deep.

It seems to me you have a problem with Rishi Sunak's skin colour, twice you have posted about the colour of his skin. No one else has mentioned this on any other thread on GN to my knowledge.

I like Rishi Sunak I think he is a decent, caring person.

Yes, they have. Dickens implied it when she mentioned her neighbour, who thinks Sunak isn't somehow "British".

growstuff Fri 14-Jun-24 12:36:53

Nicenanny3

growstuff

Keep it up! And tell all your Conservative voting friends to do the same!

You must be very naive if you think only Conservative voters are turning to Reform, Labour voters especially in the Red Wall seats who gave their vote to Boris will also be turning to Reform.

But they are already Conservative voters!

Nicenanny3 Fri 14-Jun-24 11:40:49

growstuff

Keep it up! And tell all your Conservative voting friends to do the same!

You must be very naive if you think only Conservative voters are turning to Reform, Labour voters especially in the Red Wall seats who gave their vote to Boris will also be turning to Reform.

Nicenanny3 Fri 14-Jun-24 11:36:41

Siope

^But why is anyone who voted Tory surprised / shocked / upset about this?^

I do t necessarily think they are. I think Tory voters (and party members) dislike him for other reasons, ranging from not white or right enough to unable to co tell the right-wing of the party. I think much of the wider electorate dislike his ’laissez-faire economics. The result is a trough of unpopularity he can’t escape because it’s too broad as well as deep.

It seems to me you have a problem with Rishi Sunak's skin colour, twice you have posted about the colour of his skin. No one else has mentioned this on any other thread on GN to my knowledge.

I like Rishi Sunak I think he is a decent, caring person.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 11:11:23

‘Control the right wing of the party’.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 11:10:41

But why is anyone who voted Tory surprised / shocked / upset about this?

I do t necessarily think they are. I think Tory voters (and party members) dislike him for other reasons, ranging from not white or right enough to unable to co tell the right-wing of the party. I think much of the wider electorate dislike his ’laissez-faire economics. The result is a trough of unpopularity he can’t escape because it’s too broad as well as deep.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 10:53:31

Siope

I think he’s unpopular with different people, or groups, for different reasons, above and beyond customary political views.

His wealth is certainly a factor, not because he’s rich, but because he appears to have used it to shelter himself from the most mundane realities (couldn’t use a debit card, saying he didn’t know any working class people). His politics, particularly the culture war themes, are not right-wing enough for some in his own party/voter pool, but as comments above show are too punitive for many others; he has never managed to create a clear political narrative. He isn’t white, and that’s enough for some ( Farage is making heavy play of Sunak’s not quite Britishness).

There are lots of other things too, big (supporting energy companies instead of consumers) and small (why try to play football and make a fool of yourself) and I think the level of his unpopularity is the sum of them all.

There are lots of other things too, big (supporting energy companies instead of consumers)

But why is anyone who voted Tory surprised / shocked / upset about this?

The government has been leaning ever further to the right embracing Hayekian economics - it's not a socialist government and public spending is not high on the priority list. The 'one-nation' Conservative party evaporated ages ago.

Sunak is/ was doing the right thing according to the party's economic ideology, protecting vested interests first and foremost. The fact that this pauperised people is obviously a concern because it makes the government unpopular but "there is help for households" to soften the blow is in place to mitigate.

I don't personally support any of this, but I'm still surprised that some seem to expect anything different.

Siope Fri 14-Jun-24 10:17:59

I think he’s unpopular with different people, or groups, for different reasons, above and beyond customary political views.

His wealth is certainly a factor, not because he’s rich, but because he appears to have used it to shelter himself from the most mundane realities (couldn’t use a debit card, saying he didn’t know any working class people). His politics, particularly the culture war themes, are not right-wing enough for some in his own party/voter pool, but as comments above show are too punitive for many others; he has never managed to create a clear political narrative. He isn’t white, and that’s enough for some ( Farage is making heavy play of Sunak’s not quite Britishness).

There are lots of other things too, big (supporting energy companies instead of consumers) and small (why try to play football and make a fool of yourself) and I think the level of his unpopularity is the sum of them all.

Wyllow3 Fri 14-Jun-24 09:53:55

On another board I visit now and then a poster had overheard some clearly racist comments in his local pub from local Tories on Sunak in the spirit of "not one of "us".
So I think there are probably some pockets of it.

Its hard to judge his legacy as he took over such as difficult job, Agree he's probably better character wise to be a chancellor.

I don't think the Conscription idea did him many favours and agree with Dickens on the "sick note culture" being punitive.

Dickens Fri 14-Jun-24 09:30:11

Callistemon21

^One of my staunch Tory neighbours (we talk over the garden fences or in the street when we meet) made the observation that he wasn't "very British". And couldn't explain when I asked her - "in what way?"^
That sounds suspiciously like racism is tingeing her views. We have a friend, born in Uganda, who fled here as a child. He is one of the most patriotic people we know. Not sure how he votes, though.

That sounds suspiciously like racism is tingeing her views.

I suspect it is - she couldn't explain what she saw or heard that wasn't 'very-British'. And it wasn't his leaving the D-Day celebrations early because the conversation took place prior to that. Though I'm sure Sunak has given her and quite a few like her some ammunition to fire in that direction. If you peruse some of the social media sites featuring comments from the public - it crops up quite a bit in various subtle ways (subtle - to avoid site moderation).

We have a friend, born in Uganda, who fled here as a child. He is one of the most patriotic people we know. Not sure how he votes, though.

My OH who was born and raised in Sweden but is now a British Citizen is also very patriotic about his adopted country. When we both lived and worked in Norway for over a decade, I began to feel a sense of patriotism also towards my host country - especially in sport competitions. It creeps up on you, unless you are some sort of isolationist.

... anyway... as a couple of other posters have mentioned, it could be that he's not very good at 'politicking'? He's been 'in' politics for, what - nearly 10 years now, but doesn't seem to have that flair for oratory or 'delivery'.

I'm not a Tory voter, but I cannot dislike him. His political values aren't mine, but I think, as another poster said, he's at heart a decent man. However, I am not and have never been the best judge of character.

I also think that the "sick-note-culture" rhetoric, whilst it might resonate with some party faithful, will alienate others who are struggling with ill-health, GP appointments that are becoming as rare as gold-dust, cancelled surgery and / or long waits for it, who might be both in and out of work because of it.

Oreo Fri 14-Jun-24 08:25:27

Oh yeah, could well have been that if she couldn’t say exactly what she meant by very British.