Follow the Polls

Oreo

Callistemon21
There will def be some racism at play with some voters but I don’t think it’s the main reason RS doesn’t resonate with people.They’d rather have bumbling Boris as he’s more like themselves? A big drinker, shambolic dresser, greedy to make ready cash, fat? Makes you think dunnit?

I didn't mean voters in general, Oreo; I meant Dickens's neighbour specifically.

Callistemon21
There will def be some racism at play with some voters but I don’t think it’s the main reason RS doesn’t resonate with people.They’d rather have bumbling Boris as he’s more like themselves? A big drinker, shambolic dresser, greedy to make ready cash, fat? Makes you think dunnit?

RS doesn’t drink alcohol and is a vegetarian and Hindu, is also very wealthy mainly due to his wife’s family.Is probably a bit too pleasant to be the ‘chap next door’ and too rich to appeal to ‘the man in the street’.
I think he’s very likeable but that’s just me and not being a Tory voter my liking him on a personal level won’t help his cause.

One of my staunch Tory neighbours (we talk over the garden fences or in the street when we meet) made the observation that he wasn't "very British". And couldn't explain when I asked her - "in what way?"
That sounds suspiciously like racism is tingeing her views. We have a friend, born in Uganda, who fled here as a child. He is one of the most patriotic people we know. Not sure how he votes, though.

Whitewavemark2

Sunak is no good at politicking - I think it is that simple. He isn’t quick witted enough to avoid the pitfalls, - he is unable to think on his feet.

I sure agree with you about Sunak not being a political animal, which is why he may well be a good local MP but not PM or leader of a Party.
I also agree with Dickens about his ‘Britishness’ so don’t think there’s too much racism at play with those who don’t like him.

Some polls now have reform 1 point ahead of the Tories, but this won’t stand, and in any case it won’t translate into seats, but what it might do is to give Farage a seat in parliament which if the Tories resist taking him into their fold, will be no bad thing as Farage’s work rate is pretty none existent snd it will be soon clear of the paucity of his policies.

Sunak is no good at politicking - I think it is that simple. He isn’t quick witted enough to avoid the pitfalls, - he is unable to think on his feet.

Callistemon21

Dickens

Siope

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Is it Sunak - the party - or both, do you think?

He does appear to be like a stall sales-man trying to tempt would be customers who are already walking away by grabbing at various objects on his stall saying ^"wait a minute - what about this then?"^

grabbing at various objects on his stall saying "wait a minute - what about this then?"

There have been far worse Prime Ministers than Sunak, self-serving or those who ignore advice and are determined to tread a dangerous psth. It seems to me that he is a decent man, perhaps ill-advised by idiots, who is more out of his depth as Prime Minister than self-serving and devious.

There have been far worse Prime Ministers than Sunak...

For sure.

He seemed more adept as Chancellor (to me anyway) but now seems to be floundering. Perhaps it is his advisors...

Apart from the D-Day blunder - he seems to be addressing the issues that are of concern to the grass-roots Tories, but he's not resonating with them, and I find that puzzling.

And, yes- he does appear out of his depth.

One of my staunch Tory neighbours (we talk over the garden fences or in the street when we meet) made the observation that he wasn't "very British". And couldn't explain when I asked her - "in what way?"

I'm not a Tory-voter, nevertheless, found myself defending him because, to me anyway, he appears very 'British'. I'm not quite sure what being British really means, but I sort of know it when I see it. However, It's all about perception and according to MORI, he's obviously not being perceived in the way he had hoped.

It seems to me that he is a decent man, perhaps ill-advised by idiots, who is more out of his depth as Prime Minister than self-serving and devious

I think I agree with you too Calli.

I am a staunch Labour supporter but even I am beginning to feel a little sorry for Sunak now (only a little, mind you)

I do think he’s not that politically astute and is out of his depth. I get the impression he’ll be glad when the election is over and done with. Whichever party wins, I don’t think he’ll continue as leader of the Tories after the election.

I also agree that Starmer is a decent man and, I think, a lot tougher than people give him credit for. If Labour wins 🤞 I believe he’ll make a good PM.

I think you’ll find that Starmer is a lot tougher than many people seem to realise. Not many people could have brought the Labour party to where it is now.

Urmstongran

In many ways I agree with you Calli - Sunak seems a decent and caring family man. I like him as a person. He seems kind. And I suppose he’s only been PM for a couple of years so we can’t hang 14 years of cavalier insouciance on him per se. But I cannot vote for him. The Tory party are a busted flush as far as I’m concerned.

Yes, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were unknown unknowns (to quote Rumsfeld) but the rot started with Cameron ‘call me Dave’ and George Osborne (austerity on steroids) and now I feel Tory is a toxic brand.

I shan't be voting for them either Urmstongran but probably not the same as you 🙂
Both Sunak and Starmer seem to be decent men, Starmer more politically able than Sunak. I just hope that Starmer will not be swayed by some of dafter members of his future Government.

He is still far more right wing than he comes across as.

In many ways I agree with you Calli - Sunak seems a decent and caring family man. I like him as a person. He seems kind. And I suppose he’s only been PM for a couple of years so we can’t hang 14 years of cavalier insouciance on him per se. But I cannot vote for him. The Tory party are a busted flush as far as I’m concerned.

Yes, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were unknown unknowns (to quote Rumsfeld) but the rot started with Cameron ‘call me Dave’ and George Osborne (austerity on steroids) and now I feel Tory is a toxic brand.

Dickens

Siope

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Is it Sunak - the party - or both, do you think?

He does appear to be like a stall sales-man trying to tempt would be customers who are already walking away by grabbing at various objects on his stall saying ^"wait a minute - what about this then?"^

grabbing at various objects on his stall saying "wait a minute - what about this then?"

There have been far worse Prime Ministers than Sunak, self-serving or those who ignore advice and are determined to tread a dangerous psth. It seems to me that he is a decent man, perhaps ill-advised by idiots, who is more out of his depth as Prime Minister than self-serving and devious.

For the nerds - you can see a really detailed breakdown for your parliamentary seat here, it’s even categorised for the nature of your electoral ward if you go into postcode lookup.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

If one is genuinely concerned about politics in the long term, of course one wants to hold Reform to account for its policies in detail just as much as the L Party or the Conservative Party.

Not to feel superior, nor fear, but concern, especially for issues raised above. If I'm asked to explain why I support the Labour Party on X or why I would do my best.

Whats strange about asking it of Reform supporters?

Siope

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

Is it Sunak - the party - or both, do you think?

He does appear to be like a stall sales-man trying to tempt would be customers who are already walking away by grabbing at various objects on his stall saying "wait a minute - what about this then?"

Some interesting numbers from Rob Ford (Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, author, works with Curtice at the BBC) at the midway point of the election campaign:

Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating of -53 is the worst recorded by MORI one month out from an election in all of the elections they have covered since 1979 - worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 (-36), John Major in 1997 (-46) or James Callaghan in 1979 (-33).

"The net rating of the Sunak government is, at -71, the worst approval of any British government MORI have asked about on the brink of an election...

"More than two thirds of British voters tell MORI the government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected next month, nearly three quarters say it is time for a change, and four fifths say the government has done a bad job. All of these figures are now at the highest level since Sunak took office...•

swingometer.substack.com/p/the-half-time-verdict

What scares me, when people say how great Farage is and how good Reforms policies are is feeling that we have learned nothing from history

Nicenanny3

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

It’s not belittling anybody to identify the apparent flaws in a party’s manifesto Nicenanny3, or to query if supporters understand the potential implications of plans.. All the party manifestos have been, and will continue to be subject to scrutiny by people with different political beliefs, right up to polling day and beyond. I read and interpreted what was said, as I’m sure you have. Your view on the message in the Reform literature is different regarding health to the way I’ve interpreted, so feel free to critique it.

Nicenanny3

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

I don’t think Labour voters are worried about Reform. They will hoover up mainly Tory votes.

Brexit is done, now it’s all about domestic policies, and trying to climb out of the mess we are in.

No poll, anywhere, suggests Reform will get any sort of power - even Farage says they are only aiming at being an effective opposition.

If it's a supposed dead cert that Labour will get in why are posters/people so worried about Reform. Or are you secretly worried the polls are wrong just like the Brexit vote proved to be and why belittle other posters does it make you feel superior.

“How” not “he”

Casdon

Go through it with a fine tooth comb Urmstongran. It’s got more holes in it than a sieve. I could unpick it line by line, brut here are some of the glaring issues.
What happens if staff aren’t attracted back by the promise to pay no basic rate tax for three years. How much would this cost?
No mention of how ‘waiting lists’ for GPs will be reduced that isn’t already in place.
Emphasis on non NHS solutions - abroad, private care, and as I suspected and most worryingly, on voluntary organisations.

He on earth they can fund even one their promises is beyond me and much as I’d love the personal allowance to be raised to £20,000, it’s utterly ridiculous and financial suicide.

As for “coaxing” all the NHS workers who left or retired back to work, good luck with that.

Never ever ever wish for the USA model if private healthcare, you can’t pay, you die and even insurance doesn’t cover everything.

Urmstongran

I see what you mean Casdon. So why, when I listen to the intelligent and courteous Ben Habib do I agree with what he says? His thoughts chime with mine.

Anyway, it’s all academic. Reform are not going to form a government. My vote is probably a protest vote only but I’m determined to make it.

Labour will win so what THEY promise about the NHS is more pertinent.

I hope and pray you’re right, it really does serve the Tories right if their normal supporters do make protest votes. I’m taking nothing for granted until I know the results on July 5/6th