Follow the Polls

I’m in a TossUp seat, which is why I wondered really, I can see the logic in all the parties spending less in areas where there is a clear cut result expected, elections do usually generate mountains of leaflets which must cost a lot to produce. Maybe you’re right Pantglas, and it will ramp up nearer the election.

Mind you I live in a strong Labour seat, so it would be mad to spend much money on electioneering here when it could be so much better spent on a more marginal seat

No leaflets here (yet) either Casdon.

Ive only seen half a dozen boards in gardens on my morning walk, all Labour, and our Tory MP was delivering his own leaflets here last week.

Perhaps campaigning will ramp up over the next few weeks?

Casdon

Changing the subject slightly, are you being election literature bombed?
Before the election was announced I was getting a steady stream, but since then I’ve only had one communication, from the Lib Dem’s. They also have lots of boards up in gardens and fields. Labour also have lots of boards, primarily in town. The Tory boards are usually everywhere, particularly in the fields, but so far I haven’t seen any at all for them. I’ve had nothing, and seen no boards for Reform. Just wondered if we are typical, or if it’s a similar picture elsewhere.

Zero

It is astounding how the media and bias continues to drip.

So this evening I watched an IPSOS. Representative. So the question was about how much importance do voters put on tax reduction.

The answer - not much. In fact they would rather it was used to improve public services.

Top in importance - cost of living, national health, state of economy and immigration - in that order.

Heading on bbc

“Voters think immigration more important than tax”

Changing the subject slightly, are you being election literature bombed?
Before the election was announced I was getting a steady stream, but since then I’ve only had one communication, from the Lib Dem’s. They also have lots of boards up in gardens and fields. Labour also have lots of boards, primarily in town. The Tory boards are usually everywhere, particularly in the fields, but so far I haven’t seen any at all for them. I’ve had nothing, and seen no boards for Reform. Just wondered if we are typical, or if it’s a similar picture elsewhere.

Something the polling organisations are really finding difficult with this election is estimating turnout, especially among young people. This had been dropping steadily over the last few general elections, down to below 50%, but could well spike significantly this time.

Just now in the Telegraph:

“ Reform UK has closed the gap on the Conservatives in the polls to just one point.

A new YouGov poll put Nigel Farage’s party on 17 per cent, just one point behind the Conservatives on 18 per cent.

Reform have gained one point and the Conservatives have lost one point from the results in YouGov’s poll last week, from 16 and 19 per cent respectively.

Labour remains in the lead but is down three points to 38 per cent, whereas the Lib Dems have surged by four points to 15 per cent following the launch of their manifesto.

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week.”

To be honest I don’t set much store by polls.
Do you?

Well they can promise the moon on a stick but the question will always be - you’ve had 14 years to do all this stuff why haven’t you done this already?

As everyone is saying Iam “too little, too late*.
Himself just said “he’ll be promising us the Town Hall clock next”.

I was just pointing out he got a lot of applause. And seems much more confident in his delivery.

The applause was from the Tory audience😄😄😄

I listened to chunks of it - brass neck urmstongran, that’s my initial response. Shameless over confidence based on a life of privilege

Sunak got plenty of applause launching the Tory manifesto at Silverstone just now. Be interesting to see whether or not it moves the dials any. He did seem much more comfortable addressing the audience and took on loads of questions from SKY, several newspapers, GBNEWS etc.

Well that’s that. Nothing that will move the polls, unless Labour totally cock it up on Thursday.

Joe Coburn said that the Tory right are not at all impressed snd beginning to agitate.

We shall see.

Well if that happens I think they will simply implode.

Whitewavemark2

This in the Guardian. - Jenrick and Braverman waiting to pounce apparently

“In the event Sunak’s launch fails to shift the dial on the Tories’ floundering election campaign, one option under discussion is a press conference next week to set out a series of alternative pledges.”

Well that should move the polls🙄

I’ve lost the plot now. What about centre right voters if that happens - and where does it leave the candidates who are standing to be Tory MPs who are moderate, and are probably the good constituency MPs who would be re-elected for that reason?

This in the Guardian. - Jenrick and Braverman waiting to pounce apparently

“In the event Sunak’s launch fails to shift the dial on the Tories’ floundering election campaign, one option under discussion is a press conference next week to set out a series of alternative pledges.”

Well that should move the polls🙄

Dinahmo

This is of interest.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/crank-tory-candidates-accused-of-sharing-online-conspiracy-theories

My goodness, thats an eye opener! I've been posting Reform Party politicians' views in GN but it appears the Conservatives have had to rush to find candidates and not checked either.

Not sure what the Conservative manifesto can "pull out of the bag" as they have Reform on the one hand pulling to the right and centrist voters on the other who would be happier with more moderate conservatism.

The Labour Manifesto will be later this week and I'm fairly sure it will be a "steady as she goes" manifesto because the right wing MSM are waiting to pounce.

Whatever is in there will, though, beg the question: you’ve had 14 years, if you believe in this, why haven’t you done it?

I think the Manifesto launch is one of the last chances to change the polls/the election results.

So will the Tory manifesto out today and will this shift the polls?

The Tories are now trying to attract the young vote with the re-introduction of the help to buy scheme (according to newsnight). Sunak admitted that housing is a nightmare and got much worse under the Tories. I wonder if this will work.

Whitewavemark2

Yes I keep reading that about Sunak, but it may just be wishful thinking on the part of some of the headbangers in the Tory party.

Some polls -IPSOS - now have Reform and the Tories neck and neck, but they are in the minority.

Generally Labour remains ahead by about 21 points, on about 43-44% I was reading yesterday that if the support for the Tories drop below 20% then they really are in wipeout territory.

We can but hope. Reform may, as with UKIP in the past, get a lot of scattered votes - but it doesn’t convert to seats.

One reform candidate has stood aside so that Tory Gavin Williamson can have an easy ride.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/reform-candidate-saves-gavin-williamsons-32988540

Yes I keep reading that about Sunak, but it may just be wishful thinking on the part of some of the headbangers in the Tory party.

Some polls -IPSOS - now have Reform and the Tories neck and neck, but they are in the minority.

Generally Labour remains ahead by about 21 points, on about 43-44% I was reading yesterday that if the support for the Tories drop below 20% then they really are in wipeout territory.

Bumping to get up past spam

Latest polls, showing Labour increasing their lead. Dorries has now alleged that Sunak intends to just go before the election. If true, that really would be a first- a leader deserting a party midway through an election campaign, and with them having no method of electing a new one.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-sunak-farage-mordaunt-rayner-latest-news-b2559291.html