Follow the Polls

I’m looking forward to reading Reform’s Manifesto.

Interesting talk about the Farage effect on the polls on newsnight.

It is thought that a couple of polls could well show reform leading the Tories in the coming days, but it is not thought it will last.

Reason

Once many of the candidates come under scrutiny and found severely wanting because of their racism, criminal record or just plain wanting- their support will drop away.

Another lot of You Gov data -

1st IPSOS poll dated 4thJune.
Not sure how reliable that is but is in Lib with all the others I suppose

I appreciate Labour will win the GE. I truly don’t mind. I’m not a Tory ‘fangirl’ I just lent Boris my vote a few years ago (along with many other Red Wall voters) and he let us down very badly. I’m voting Reform. Labour will sweep the board let’s just hope they make a good fist of things.

My area predicted safe Labour - yippee

I should add that snapshot is about tactical voting!

This is the latest You Gov predictions - but it is only one poll and likely incorrect.

I’ve just been looking at social media, and there seems to be a lot of stuff out there about voting tactically. It seems that you gov have got some data about what would happen if tactical voting was carried out at the election - it would completely wipe the Tories out.

Strewth!!

Day 15

The poll of polls are showing no movement as yet.

So exactly as we started

However as others have noted, the Farage factor may be kicking in and votes are apparently leaching away from the Tory vote to reform. .

It will make more sense when we have a round up of all the polls in to see the trends.

I’m waiting for the Reform smear campaign to start in the media. I don’t think they will ultimately want the Tories wiped out by an untried loose canon, as even if they support some of Reform’s ideas it is high risk because it will weaken the opposition to Labour for years to come.

Reform only 2 points behind the Tories. Time to dust off those old CVs for a lot of Tory MPs.

Your interpretation is like the curate’s egg Urmstongran.
news.sky.com/story/reform-uk-pulls-to-within-two-points-of-tories-in-latest-yougov-poll-13148396. This is what Sky News says.

‘The impact of the methodological change - which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don't knows - is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.

YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.’

As I’ve said on the other thread, can you please include what the results would be if YouGov had not changed its methodology?

Hint: Reform “surge” = increased 3 points.

Reform has surged to within just two points of the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll following the return of Nigel Farage as leader.

Mr Farage’s party is up by two percentage points to 17 per cent, with the Conservatives down two on 19 per cent.

Labour is down six to 40 per cent, meaning its lead is now 21 points in the wake of YouGov changing its methodology and the former Ukip leader making a sensational return to frontline politics.

The poll was carried out on Monday, when Mr Farage announced his comeback, and Tuesday, the day of the first head-to-head TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.

maizie I do know that Reeves is charging the Treasury to turn their full attention to growth, now if that means and I think certainly to a degree it does, (U.K. Energy) the government investing in the U.K. economy then we are in for a sustainable level of growth which will attract business investment as confidence grows.

We need the manifesto to be more certain really.

Day 14 (I think)

First day after the head to heads, which were the polls suggest a more or less dead heat.

No movement in the polls, whether the debates will shift the polls will take a few days to feed through apparently, although I would be surprised after that unedifying spectacle that it would influence anything.

I cannot see a way forward without hefty tax rises, whatever they are pledging in their manifesto.

Who do you think will be subject to 'hefty tax rises', GG13?

Bearing in mind, of course, that the burden of tax rises usually falls most heavily on the section of the population which is most likely to spend their money into the domestic economy and thus support the SMEs which make up a large part of the domestic economy. I say 'falls most heavily' on them because they are the people who have no spare money to be absorbed by higher taxation, however trivial the amount of the extra tax might seem to those who impose it, or those who can absorb the extra tax demand without going sort of anything...

There are a number of economists suggesting that some hefty deficit spending would make much more sense as most of the public sector is failing for lack of government financing. Increased public spending would be a very significant driver of growth as the extra money invested would be spent into the domestic economy and ultimately increase the tax take from higher paid individuals and increased business activity.

It would also encourage more private investment, which at the moment is flat or practically non existent because the private sector can't see any potential profit in investing in the UK at the moment.

I think that Labour is naive to think that they're going to achieve growth through increased private sector alone; the state has to sow the seeds. I've been saying this for a number of years now in my boring economics posts. I was pleased to see that my logic isn't totally skewed on this as the Observer economics correspondent pointe out on Sunday. Discussing the need for more state spending in Europe (whose economic neoliberal consensus the UK shares) he pointed out that 'a global public spending drought had stymied private investment because private investors like to piggyback on tax-payer funded schemes. This, incidentally, is a theme that respected economist, Maria Mazzucato has been banging on about for years now...

GrannyGravy13

MaizieD

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.

Which way do you think the LP will go once in power, GG13?

I think they will have to pander to the Unions and the left of their party, in the same way the Conservatives have had to keep the right happy.

I cannot see a way forward without hefty tax rises, whatever they are pledging in their manifesto.

I am still involved in our SME, and worry about KS’s proposed Commercial Tax as so far no details have been released.

How Labour will give business the confidence to invest

“To bring stability, an incoming Labour government will publish a roadmap for business taxation, setting out our plans on business tax over the duration of the parliament.
If we expect business to invest in Britain, then tax rates cannot shoot up and down like a yo-yo.

For the period of the next parliament, Labour will also cap the headline rate of corporation tax at its current rate of 25 per cent, the lowest in the G7.”

So the road map is probably what you are waiting for, although I doubt that your business is paying the lower rate of income tax, but if so 19% I think will almost certainly be retained, as Labour are keen to see growth in the economy, and SMEs of course contribute the bulk of that growth.

MaizieD

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.

Which way do you think the LP will go once in power, GG13?

I think they will have to pander to the Unions and the left of their party, in the same way the Conservatives have had to keep the right happy.

I cannot see a way forward without hefty tax rises, whatever they are pledging in their manifesto.

I am still involved in our SME, and worry about KS’s proposed Commercial Tax as so far no details have been released.

Did you come away with the conclusion, that she didn’t understand what she was talking about?

So she is intending to legislate that will allow those wanting to do so to change their biological sex on their birth certificate, but has no idea what paperwork will be needed by those wanting to legally bar such people from say a woman’s prison, sports as their chosen sex etc.

She really struggled with trying to understand the argument, and simply got irritated.

Whitewavemark2

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.

😄 you would say that wouldn’t you?

Not really, I was within a millisecond of voting for Tony Blair, I wish I had confidence in KS, but nothing he has said has swayed me.

He is trying to be everything to everyone, that will never work once he is in power. He will have to keep the left of his party happy, just as consecutive Tory PM’s have had to keep the right happy.

I am left with two choices at the GE, Independent or Minster Raving Loony Party. There is no way I could hold my nose to vote Lib Dem’s or Greens.

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.

Which way do you think the LP will go once in power, GG13?

GrannyGravy13

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.

😄 you would say that wouldn’t you?

Whitewavemark2 KS might be trying to present the Labour Party as centre left in order to get elected, but odds on that will change gradually after 5/7/24.